Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Preview
From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have the Mets and Cubs facing off in an NL matchup. First pitch on Saturday is set for 2:20 PM ET, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. SNY will be televising this one.
The money line odds have the Mets at -101 compared to the Cubs at -118, and the over/under line is at 12 runs. Tylor Megill is starting for the Mets, and the Cubs are going with Jameson Taillon. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and they are 4th in the NL East and 5th in the NL Central.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – New York Mets odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- 4-1 is the record of Mets in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Cubs have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- In their previous ten games, Mets have won 7-3 as favorites and 7-3 as underdogs.
- The Cubs have a 5-5 record when favored, while their record as the underdog is 3-7.
New York cruised to an easy 11-1 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 4th inning, scoring all four of their runs. As for the Cubs, they scored their only run in the 1st. Heading into the game, the Mets were at +129 on the money line.
Jose Quintana only went 6 1/3 innings for the Mets but didn’t give up a run and finished with eight strikeouts. He picked up a win in the game, while Shota Imanaga only went three innings for the Cubs and gave up 10 runs to take the loss.
New York’s offense was led by J.D. Martinez and Brandon Nimmo, as they were the only two Mets hitters to have more than one hit. Martinez, Francisco Alvarez, Jose Iglesias, and Francisco Lindor each had two RBIs.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction
With a record of 36-38, the Mets are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 12.5 games. New York will be on the road today, taking on the Cubs, and they lead the series 1-0. The Mets have gone 8-2 across their last ten games.
This season, the Mets have been even at 20-18 when favored and 16-20 as the underdog. They have split their 74 games evenly between their home and road games, going 18-23 at home and 18-15 on the road. Their overall series record is 11-12-3, and they have won four straight series.
The Mets have been a solid bet against the run line on the road this season, posting a 20-13 record. Overall, they are 34-40 against the run line, with an average run margin of 0.0 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 21-15, compared to 13-25 as the favorite.
The Mets have played 74 games this season with over/under lines lower than 12, and their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game. Their over/under record on the season is 38-34, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs. Today’s over/under line is set at 12 runs, and the Mets have not played any games this season with an over/under line set at 12 runs.
New York starter Tylor Megill heads into today’s game with a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.52. He has made six starts this year and has one quality start. Megill’s most recent outing was a good one, as he picked up the win vs. the Padres, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Megill’s ERA at home is 2.91, compared to 5.4 on the road.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 8th best in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.9 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .248, which is 9th in the league, and are also 6th in the league in home runs. Over the past nine games, Brandon Nimmo has gone 14/36 with three homers and 10 RBIs.
Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor are all tied for the team lead in RBIs, with Alonso leading the Mets with 16 homers. Lindor and Alonso are both batting .244 for the season, and Nimmo is also at .244, but he has been on a tear of late, going 14/36 in his last nine games.
With a record of 36-40, the Cubs are 5th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by eight games. So far, they have gone just 9-17 in divisional games. The Cubs are looking to bounce back after dropping the first game of their series vs. the Mets.
At home, the Cubs are 21-17 this season compared to a 15-23 mark on the road. As for how they have fared as the favorite, the Cubs are 19-18 and 17-22 as the underdog. One positive for the Cubs is that they have been a good home underdog this year, going 7-4. Heading into today’s game, the Cubs are 9-13-2 in series this year.
The Cubs have been a profitable run line bet overall this season at 36-40, but they have been especially good on the road, going 22-16. They have been a poor run line bet at home, going 14-24. They have been a much better bet as the underdog, going 26-13 against the run line, compared to 10-27 as the favorite.
The Chicago Cubs are at home today against the New York Mets. The over/under line for the game is set at 12 runs, which is well above their season average of 8.6 runs per game. The Cubs have gone over the total in 33 of their 73 games this season, and the over has hit in their last two games.
Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs today and comes in with a record of 3-3 and ERA of 3.08. So far this season, he has made 11 starts and five of them have been quality starts. Taillon’s most recent outing came on June 16th vs. the Cardinals, where he took the loss, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that outing, he had gone three straight starts without taking the loss. Taillon’s ERA at home is 3.53, compared to 3.0 on the road. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.31 strikeouts and 2.35 walks.
So far this season, the Cubs offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game, compared to 4.1 runs per game on the road. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .229, which is 19th in the league, and their slugging percentage of .369 is also 20th in the MLB.
Chicago’s top power threat so far has been Christopher Morel, who leads the team with 13 homers but is batting just .198 for the season. Cody Bellinger and Ian Happ are both batting in the low .200s, but Bellinger has gone 12/38 in his last 10 games, and Happ is 10/30 in his last nine games.
Our predicted score for this one is a 5-4 win for the Mets, and with them having a money line of -101, they are our recommended pick. Offensively, we have the Mets finishing with 8 hits compared to the Cubs with 8.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Tylor Megill finishing with five strikeouts compared to Jameson Taillon with five as well. Taillon does have a slightly better chance of picking up a win, but with the Cubs’ offense projected to finish with just four runs, we are sticking with the Mets.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- We like the Mets on the moneyline (-101)
- The Mets are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Mike Tauchman | Out | Groin |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Personal |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Torrens | Out | Personal |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Questionable | Illness |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
