Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
BSWI will be televising Tuesday’s Cubs vs. Brewers matchup, with the game starting at 8:05 PM ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. Jameson Taillon is starting for the Cubs, and they are the slight favorite on the money line (-119). The Brewers are starting Colin Rea and they are +100 on the money line.
The forecast for Tuesday’s game calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid-80s. Milwaukee is currently 1st in the NL Central with a record of 57-43, while the Cubs are 4th in the division at 49-53. Chicago has won two straight coming into the game.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Brewers in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Cubs have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Cubs have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Brewers have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Chicago picked up a 3-1 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs offense got off to a fast start, scoring one run in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Brewers got on the board with one run in the 3rd and didn’t score again. Heading into the game, the Cubs were at +101 on the money line.
Javier Assad only went 3 1/3 innings for the Cubs but didn’t give up a run and finished with two strikeouts. He was replaced by Drew Smyly, who got the win in the game. Héctor Neris closed things out. Tobias Myers struggled on the mound for the Brewers, giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.
Chicago’s two biggest hitters in the game were Ian Happ and Michael Busch. Happ went 1/4 with a home run, while Busch was 2/4 with an RBI. Dansby Swanson also had a two-hit game for the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee comes into today’s road matchup vs. the Cubs with a record of 57-43, which has them leading the NL Central by five games over the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 21-13 in divisional games and are 29-17 at home. On the road, the Brewers are 28-26 this season.
As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 33-22 this season, and they are 24-21 when listed as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Brewers are 18-10-3 and have lost two straight series at home.
When betting the run line on the Brewers this season, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog. They are 30-15 against the run line in those games, compared to 22-33 when they are the favorite. They have been a solid bet on the road, going 29-25 against the run line, and their average run margin in all games this season is +0.8 runs per game.
When the Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs for their games, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for the Brewers is 54-42, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 23-16. The over/under line for their games has been set at 8.5 runs in 21 of their games this season, accounting for 21% of their games.
Right-hander Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 9-3 with a 3.77 ERA. Rea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.21. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 6.51 strikeouts per nine innings. Rea’s most recent outing came out of the bullpen, where he picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had won three straight starts.
As a team, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is good for 7th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .254 (5th) and have the 2nd best on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee’s team slugging percentage of .401 is 12th in the MLB.
Willy Adames has been on a tear of late, going 14/35 in his last nine games with three homers and 10 RBIs. This has helped him move into the team lead in both home runs (16) and RBIs (68). Adames is also on a six-game hitting streak. William Contreras is batting .284 for the season and is 3rd on the team with 11 homers.
With a record of 49-53, the Cubs are 4th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by nine games. Chicago has gone 13-21 in divisional games this year, and they have won two straight games overall. The Cubs won the final game before the All-Star break, and they took the first game of this series vs. the Brewers.
At home, the Cubs are 27-23 this year and 22-30 on the road. As the underdog, the Cubs are 26-30 this year and 23-23 as the favorite. Chicago’s overall series record is 10-18-3 heading into today’s game.
Despite a run line record of 50-52, the Cubs have been a profitable team to bet on the run line this season, especially on the road, where they are 31-21. They have been a strong run line bet as the underdog, going 37-19, while they have struggled as the favorite, going 13-33.
Chicago Cubs games have gone under the total in four straight contests, and the Cubs have an over/under record of 43-55 on the season. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 12-12. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.4 runs per game, and 26.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Cardinals on July 14th, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and seven hits. In his 16 starts, Taillon has a record of 7-4 and an ERA of 3.10. Looking back over his last three outings, he has given up two earned runs in each of them. Taillon has made nine quality starts this year and is averaging 7.26 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 12 homers.
For the season, the Cubs are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 23rd in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in terms of home runs and batting average. However, they do have a good team on-base percentage and are 4th in the league in terms of drawing walks. Nico Hoerner has been swinging the bat well of late, going 11/34 in his last eight games, but he is still looking for his first home run of the season.
Christopher Morel and Ian Happ are 1-2 on the Cubs in terms of home runs, but Morel is batting just .202 for the season, and Happ is at .237. Happ is the team’s top run producer, with 59 RBIs. Morel has gone 7/27 in his last seven games, including two homers, while Happ has gone just 5/27 in that stretch.
Getting the Cubs at -119 on the money line is a great value, as we have them winning this one 6-5. At -119, we would recommend locking in this payout, rather than taking the over or under, as we have the line sitting at 8.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Jameson Taillon finishing with four strikeouts, which is good for third-worst among starters. As for Colin Rea, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which is 14th among starters.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- The Cubs should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Finger |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Ribs |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Hayden Wesneski | Out | Forearm |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Gary Sánchez | Out | Calf |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
