Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 2:20 PM from Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have an NL Central matchup between the Brewers and Cubs. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Brewers have a record of 20-12, while the Cubs are 20-14. Starting for the Brewers is Freddy Peralta, and he is up against Javier Assad for the Cubs.
Milwaukee is the favorite on the money line, and the over/under line is at 6.5 runs. Looking at the forecast, the temperature will be in the mid 50s with scattered clouds.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Cubs, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- The Brewers have a 8-2 straight-up record in their last ten games as the favorite, and 5-5 against the runline.
- As the underdog, the Cubs have gone 3-7 vs. the runline and 5-5 straight-up.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Cubs vs Brewers series. Chicago went into the matchup as -132 favorites and squeaked out a 6-5 win. Milwaukee had a late rally, scoring four runs in the 7th and another run in the 9th, but Héctor Neris closed things out for the Cubs.
Jameson Taillon pitched well for the Cubs in this one, going six innings and striking out seven without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Tobias Myers had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss.
At the plate, Patrick Wisdom and Nico Hoerner each homered for the Cubs, while Christopher Morel scored twice and drove in two runs while going 1/3. Ian Happ also had a two-hit game for Chicago’s offense.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is on the road today vs. the Cubs, with the Brewers leading the NL Central by one game over the Cubs. So far, they have gone 8-4 in divisional matchups. The Brewers are 20-12 overall and have gone 13-5 on the road compared to 7-7 at home.
The Brewers have been really good in day games this year, going 12-4, and they are 4-2 as the road favorite. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 6-2-2, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
When the Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, they have been a good bet against the run line, going 12-6 this season. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and have an average run margin of 2.1 runs per game. The Brewers have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 12-6, compared to just 4-10 as the favorite.
When the Brewers and Cubs met on May 18, the O/U line was set at 8.5 runs, and the game went over that total with 11 runs scored. In the Brewers’ last 10 games, the O/U line has been set at 8 or higher nine times, and the over has hit in six of those games.
Freddy Peralta is looking to build off his last outing, where he faced off against the Rays and picked up the win. In that start, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs and coming away with the win. Looking at his overall record, Peralta is 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA. Opponents have a batting average of .168 off Peralta this season. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 12.03 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Peralta has a total of 45 strikeouts. Per nine innings, he has issued just 2.41 walks.
William Contreras has been on a tear for the Brewers, as he is batting .336 for the season and is currently on a six-game hitting streak. He is also 2nd on the team with five homers and has driven in 27 runs, which is 3rd in the league. Christian Yelich is also swinging a hot bat, as he is batting .333 with five homers. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are also tied for the team lead with six homers.
As a team, the Brewers are 3rd in the league in scoring at 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, as they are 5th in homers and have a collective batting average of .257.
Chicago is hosting the Brewers today with an overall record of 20-14, which has them just one game behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. So far, they are 1-1 in divisional games and have an overall series record of 5-3-2. The Cubs have been good at home this year, going 11-4 compared to 9-10 on the road.
The Cubs are currently wrapping up a losing streak, as they lost as the underdog in their last two games. As the underdog overall, the Cubs are 11-10 this year and 5-1 as the home underdog. When favored, the Cubs are 9-4 this year. Looking at their recent performance, the Cubs are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
Chicago has been a solid run line bet this season, going 22-12 overall. They’ve been especially profitable on the road, going 13-6 against the run line. The Cubs have been a good bet as the underdog, going 16-5 against the run line in those games. Overall, they have an average run differential of +0.4 runs per game.
The Cubs have had a high-scoring start to the season, with a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game. Their over/under record is 15-18, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. Today’s over/under line is set at 6.5 runs, and in games where the line was set at 6.5 runs, the over/under record is 0-0. So far this season, the Cubs have had over/under lines set at 6.5 runs in 100% of their games.
Javier Assad has made six starts this season and has a record of 2-0 with an ERA of 1.97. He has pitched well at home, coming in with an ERA of 1.17 compared to 2.86 on the road. Assad has made one quality start this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing, he finished with a no-decision. For the season, he has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. Opponents are batting .207 off Assad this season.
So far this season, the Cubs are 2nd in the league in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. This includes averaging 5.5 runs per game at home. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 13th in the league. Christopher Morel has struggled with his batting average this season, hitting just .213, but he does have a team-high seven home runs and is 10th in the league with 20 RBIs.
Over his last six games, Morel has four home runs and is 5/22. Nico Hoerner has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 7/23 in his last six games. Hoerner is also on a four-game hitting streak. Michael Busch is 2nd on the team with 18 RBIs and has gone deep six times this season, which is 5th in the league.
With the Cubs as the underdogs, but getting +104 on the money line, this is the best way to play this one. We have the Cubs taking this one 6-5, and with the payout, we would take them on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta does have the edge in strikeout projections, but we have him giving up more runs than Javier Assad. Our projections have Assad finishing with five K’s and Peralta with eight.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (+104)
- On the run line we like Cubs (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Ribs |
| Kyle Hendricks | Out | Back |
| Justin Steele | Out | Hamstring |
| Seiya Suzuki | Out | Oblique |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Back |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Gary Sánchez | Probable | Hamstring |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Taylor Clarke | Out | Knee |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Freddy Peralta | Questionable | Suspension |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
