Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 2:20 from Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have an NL Central matchup between the Brewers and Cubs. Heading into Saturday’s game, the Brewers have a record of 20-11, while the Cubs are 19-14. Milwaukee is sending Tobias Myers to the mound vs. Jameson Taillon for the Cubs.
Chicago comes into this one as the favorite, with money line odds of -129, and the over/under line is sitting at 8 runs. If you’re looking to watch this game on TV, it is being carried by BSWI.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Brewers in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Cubs have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- The Cubs have a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Brewers’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Brewers vs Cubs series. Milwaukee went into the matchup as slight underdogs at -101 and squeaked out a 3-1 win. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Cubs and struck out 12 times, but still picked up a win.
Chicago wasted a good outing from Hayden Wesneski, as he gave up just two hits and no earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work for the Cubs. Adbert Alzolay took the loss.
Joe Ross got the win for the Brewers, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Trevor Megill got the save out of the bullpen.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is on a three-game winning streak, and they lead the NL Central with an overall record of 20-11. The Brewers hold a two-game lead over the Cubs, who they are playing today. So far, they have been good against other teams in the NL Central, putting up an 8-3 mark.
The Brewers have been the underdog in two straight games, and they have an overall record of 11-6 as the underdog this year. They have also been tough to beat on the road when they are the underdog, going 9-2. Milwaukee is 12-3 in day games this year and 7-7 at home.
When the Brewers are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 11-6 overall and 2-0 in their last two games. Their average run margin on the road is +2.3, and they have a run line record of 15-16 overall. When they are the underdog, they are 11-6 against the run line, while they are just 4-10 when they are the favorite.
When the Brewers and Cubs met on Tuesday, the over/under line was set at 7.5 runs, and the game finished with a combined total of just four runs, going under the total. The Brewers have played in 31 games this season, and their games have averaged 9.5 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 18-13, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. Their games have had an over/under line of 8 runs three times this season, and all three of those games have gone under the total.
Tobias Myers will be taking the mound for the Brewers today on the road against the Cubs. Myers has started two games this season, and he took the loss in his first start against the Pirates. In that game, he went 5 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 earned run. He then went 5 innings in his last start, giving up 4 earned runs on 5 hits.
William Contreras has been on a tear of late, hitting .316 over his last 10 games, and is currently on a five-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .341 with 26 RBIs, which is 4th in the league. He has also gone deep five times. Christian Yelich and Rhys Hoskins have also been swinging the bat well, with both players having gone deep five times.
As a team, the Brewers are the 4th highest-scoring team in the league at 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and are batting .258, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB.
Chicago will host the Brewers today with an overall record of 19-14, which has them two games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cubs dropped the first game of this series vs. the Reds and are 0-1 in the division so far. At home, the Cubs are 10-4 this season and 9-10 on the road.
The Cubs have dropped two straight games, and their overall series record is 5-3-2. As the favorite, the Cubs are 8-4 this year, and they are 5-3 when favored at home. So far, Chicago has been the underdog 21 times, and they have gone 11-10 in those games. The Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall.
When the Cubs win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 3.4 runs per game. This has led to a 22-11 run line record on the season. They have been especially good at covering the run line at home, going 9-5. In their losses, they have been outscored by an average of 3.7 runs per game.
With a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game, the Cubs have seen their games go over the O/U line in 14 of their 32 games this season. Their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs, and they have gone over that line in just one of the six games this season where the line was set at 8 runs.
Jameson Taillon is getting the start for the Cubs at home against the Brewers. He has started three games so far this season and has a 2-0 record. His last time out, he went 7 1/3 innings and only gave up one earned run.
So far this season, the Cubs have been one of the league’s best home run-hitting teams, but they are just 14th in the league in terms of batting average and have the 9th best scoring offense in the league at 4.8 runs per game. Chicago has been even better at home, averaging 5.5 runs per game. As a team, they are 6th in the league in walks and have the 10th best on-base percentage in the league.
Christopher Morel and Michael Busch are tied for the team lead with six home runs, with Morel batting just .210 and Busch at .271. Morel has gone deep three times in his last eight games, but he is just 7/31 in that stretch. Busch has gone 8/28 in his last eight games. Nico Hoerner is currently on a three-game hitting streak and is batting .279 for the season.
Our predicted final score for this one is 6-5 in favor of the Cubs, and with them having a money line of -129, that is the way we recommend playing this one. We do have the Cubs finishing with a better record than the Brewers, and we also have Jameson Taillon finishing with more strikeouts than Tobias Myers.
Offensively, we have the Cubs finishing with the 10th most runs in the league today, compared to the Brewers, who are projected to finish with the sixth most. However, the Cubs are predicted to finish with the 17th most home runs, compared to the Brewers, who are 14th.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Ribs |
| Kyle Hendricks | Out | Back |
| Justin Steele | Out | Hamstring |
| Seiya Suzuki | Out | Oblique |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Back |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Gary Sánchez | Probable | Hamstring |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Taylor Clarke | Out | Knee |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Freddy Peralta | Questionable | Suspension |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Questionable | Knee |
