Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 2:20 PM ET, the Brewers and Cubs will face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago and features a Brewers club that is 19-11 this season. The Cubs are 19-13 and will be sending Hayden Wesneski to the mound vs. Joe Ross for the Brewers.
Currently, the over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the Cubs are the slight favorite on the money line at -127. If you’re looking to watch this game on TV, it is being carried by MARQ.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Brewers have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- In the Cubs’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Cubs have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Brewers have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Rays, closing out their series with a 7-1 win. After allowing one run to the Rays in the top of the first, the Brewers responded with two runs of their own. Milwaukee went on to add another two runs in the 3rd inning.
Colin Rea put together a good start for the Brewers, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out five Rays batters. Milwaukee’s offense was carried by Willy Adames, who went 2/4 with two homers and four RBIs.
Milwaukee is on the road today, heading into their matchup vs. the Cubs with a record of 19-11, which has them leading the NL Central by 1 game. The Brewers won the first two games of their series vs. the Rays and closed it out with a loss. So far, they have gone 7-3 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Brewers are just 7-7 this year, but they have been really good on the road. Milwaukee has gone 12-4 on the road while winning two straight away from home. One thing to note is that they have been great in day games this year, going 12-3.
When the Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, they have been a solid bet to cover the run line, going 10-6 so far. Their average run margin in those games is 2.3, compared to -0.9 at home. They have been a better bet to cover the run line as the underdog, going 10-6, compared to just 4-10 as the favorite.
With an average combined run total of 9.6 runs per game, the Milwaukee Brewers have seen their games go over the total in 18 of their 30 contests this season. The over/under line for today’s game against the Chicago Cubs is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their average line of 8 runs per game. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Brewers have gone 3-3 on the over/under for those six games.
Joe Ross is on the mound for the Brewers today, as they take on the Cubs. Ross has started 3 games already this season, and he is 1-2. His last start was a loss to the Yankees, where he went 5 innings and gave up 5 earned runs.
William Contreras has been red hot for the Brewers, hitting .324 over his last 10 games, and he is currently on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .345, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. He also leads the Brewers with 25 RBIs. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins have also been swinging the bat well, as they both have six homers, which is 5th best in the league right now.
As a team, the Brewers are averaging 5.2 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.8 runs per contest. They are one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have the 4th best team batting average in the MLB. Overall, they are one of the top offenses in the league.
The Cubs will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 7-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the bottom of the 11th before the Mets scored two runs to pick up the win. Chicago was the -105 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Ben Brown got the start for the Cubs and took the loss. He only lasted 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs and issuing five walks. The Cubs’s offense was carried by Christopher Morel, who went 1/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
With a record of 19-13, the Cubs are just one game behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. Today, the Cubs are hosting the Brewers in their first divisional matchup of the season. The Cubs split their recent series vs. the Mets and have an overall series record of 5-3-2 this year.
Chicago has been really good at home this year, going 10-3 compared to 9-10 on the road. The Cubs have also been tough to beat as the home underdog, going 5-1 this year. As the underdog, overall, the Cubs are 11-10 and 8-3 as the favorite.
Chicago has been a solid play on the run line this season, going 22-10 overall and 9-4 at home. The Cubs have been particularly profitable as the underdog, going 16-5 on the run line. They have a run differential of +0.4 runs per game overall, but that number jumps to +2.5 runs per game at home.
So far this season, the Cubs have played 31 games, and the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs in seven of them. In those games, the over has hit four times, the under has hit twice, and there was one push. The Cubs’ games have averaged 9.3 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 14-17. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and 65.6% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs.
Hayden Wesneski will be making his first start of the season for the Cubs, as he has been used out of the bullpen in his first two appearances. He picked up a win in his first outing against the Diamondbacks, and in his most recent outing, he went 4 innings and took a no-decision vs. the Red Sox.
At 5.8 runs per game, the Cubs have the best home offense in the league. Overall, they are 7th in the league at 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 14th in the league. Chicago’s offense has been very patient at the plate, as they are the league’s 5th best team in terms of drawing walks.
Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, and Cody Bellinger are all tied for the team lead with 17 RBIs. Morel and Bellinger are also tied for 2nd on the team with five homers apiece. However, Morel comes into the game batting just .209 and has gone 6/27 over his last seven games. Cody Bellinger is on an eight-game hitting streak but is batting just .226 for the season.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Cubs game is to take the Cubs on the money line at -127. We actually have the Cubs winning this one at home by a score of 6-5, giving us a little bit of wiggle room if you wanted to take the Cubs on the run line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Joe Ross finishing with six strikeouts compared to Hayden Wesneski with five. Offensively, the Cubs lineup is projected to finish with 12 strikeouts, which is the highest in the league today.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- The Cubs should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Ribs |
| Kyle Hendricks | Out | Back |
| Justin Steele | Out | Hamstring |
| Seiya Suzuki | Out | Oblique |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Back |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Gary Sánchez | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Taylor Clarke | Out | Knee |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Freddy Peralta | Questionable | Suspension |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
