Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
At 2:20 PM ET, the Reds and Cubs face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Cubs are the slight favorite on the money line (-120). The money line odds for the Reds are sitting at +102.
Cincinnati will be looking for a win on the road, as they are 5th in the NL Central with a record of 25-33. Chicago is currently 2nd in the NL Central and has an overall record of 29-30. Sunday’s forecast in Chicago calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Nick Lodolo is starting for the Reds, and he is facing off against Ben Brown.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Cincinnati Reds odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Reds are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Cubs have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 3-7, while going 1-9 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Chicago picked up a 7-5 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a huge 2nd inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Reds, they scored their final run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Cubs were favored at -141 on the money line.
Justin Steele got the start for the Cubs, going just five innings while giving up one run and striking out five. He did not factor in the decision, as Mark Leiter Jr. got the win out of the bullpen. Hector Neris got the save. Hunter Greene struggled on the mound for the Reds, giving up five earned runs in six innings of work.
At the plate, the Cubs were led by Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson, as they were the only two Cubs hitters to have more than one hit. Suzuki, Swanson, and Spencer Steer each homered for Chicago. Steer had a three-hit game and drove in four runs.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 25-33 overall and trails the Brewers by 10 games in the NL Central. So far, they are 3-5 in divisional games. The Reds are on the road today, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Reds have gone 14-17 this year, and they are 11-16 on the road. As the favorite, the Reds are 11-12 this year, and they are 14-21 as the underdog. Cincinnati has an overall series record of 5-12-1 this year.
When betting the Reds on the run line this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 17-10 against the run line compared to 13-18 at home. Cincinnati’s average run margin is -0.2, but they’ve been outscored by 0.5 runs per game at home while outscoring opponents by 0.1 runs per game on the road. They are 10-13 against the run line when favored and 20-15 as the underdog.
When the Cincinnati Reds play on the road, the over/under line is usually set higher than 7.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 27-29 overall. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 4-5, and they are currently on a two-game over streak.
Cincinnati is sending left-hander Nick Lodolo to the mound today as he faces the Cubs on the road. Lodolo has made seven starts this year and has a record of 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA. In his 40 1/3 innings of work, Lodolo has given up just four home runs. One of these home runs came in his most recent outing, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Lodolo has finished with a no-decision in two of his last three outings.
Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot in the Reds lineup so far this season, as he is batting .238 with a team-leading nine home runs. His 24 RBIs are also the 2nd most on the team. Spencer Steer is also near the top of the Reds’ home run leaderboard, as he has gone deep six times this season, which is 3rd on the team and 15th in the league. Steer is batting just .228 for the season but has two homers in his last 10 games.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. So far, they have been one of the league’s worst power-hitting teams, as they are 15th in home runs and have the worst slugging percentage in the league.
With a record of 29-30, the Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 6.5 games. The Cubs have gone just 7-11 in divisional games this year. Chicago is looking to bounce back, as they have dropped eight of their last ten games. At home, the Cubs are 16-12 compared to 13-18 on the road.
Chicago has dropped five straight series and has an overall series record of 7-9-2 this year. As the underdog, the Cubs are 16-18 this year and 13-12 as the favorite. Their overall record as the favorite is 13-12.
Chicago has been a solid team to back on the run line this season, as they are 30-29 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 18-13 against the run line. As the underdog, they have been especially strong, going 23-11. Their average run differential in wins is +3.1, while in losses, it is -3.3.
Chicago Cubs games have gone over the total in five straight games, and the Cubs have an over/under record of 27-30 on the season. The over/under line for today’s game against the Cincinnati Reds is set at 7.5 runs. The Cubs’ games have had an average combined run total of 8.8 runs per game this season, and the average over/under line for their games has been 8 runs. So far this season, 61.0% of the Cubs’ games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their record in games with a 7.5-run line is 8-7.
Through 13 appearances and six starts, Ben Brown has a record of 1-1 and an ERA of 2.72. He has made two quality starts this year and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing vs. the Brewers, Brown went seven innings, giving up just two hits and two walks. He finished with 10 strikeouts in that game. Brown has made eight appearances on the road, and his ERA is 6.2 in those outings. At home, his ERA is 0.45.
Chicago’s offense has been pretty consistent this season, averaging 4.3 runs per game both at home and on the road. Overall, they are 15th in the league in scoring. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .227, which is 22nd in the league. However, they do have a good team on-base percentage and are 5th in the league in walks.
Christopher Morel and Michael Busch are the Cubs’ top power threats, with Morel’s 10 homers leading the team and Busch right behind him with eight. Morel’s 35 RBIs is also the best mark on the team. Cody Bellinger has eight homers this season and is 2nd on the team with 26 RBIs. Over his last six games, Bellinger is hitting .296 with one home run.
Our prediction for this Reds vs. Cubs matchup is to take the Cubs on the money line at -120. We have the Cubs winning this one by a score of 5-4. Given the payout for a Cubs win, we see this as a good value pick.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Ben Brown finishing with five strikeouts compared to Nick Lodolo with seven. However, Brown is projected to finish with a better ERA and finish with fewer hits allowed compared to Lodolo.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- The Cubs should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Wilson | Out | Shoulder |
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Triceps |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
