Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
At 2:20 PM ET, the Reds and Cubs face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Cubs are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -148. The money line odds for a Reds win are at +125, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
Cincinnati will be looking to move above .500, as they are 24-32, while the Cubs are looking to extend their two-game winning streak. Javier Assad is starting for the Cubs, and he is facing off against Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. Assad has a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings this season.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Cincinnati Reds odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Reds in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Cubs have a 1-4 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- The Cubs have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 0-10 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cardinals with a 5-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Cardinals scored three runs in the top of the 9th. Cincinnati was the -124 favorite at home going into the game.
Frankie Montas was excellent for the Reds, going six innings and giving up just three hits and one earned run while striking out five. However, the Reds couldnjson’t close things out, and Montas took the loss. Nick Martini was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a run scored and a double.
Cincinnati is 24-32 overall and trails the Brewers by nine games in the NL Central heading into today’s road game vs. the Cubs. The Reds have lost two straight games, dropping the final two games of their series vs. the Cardinals. So far, they are just 2-4 in divisional games.
As the road underdog, the Reds are 7-14 this season compared to 13-20 as the underdog overall. Cincinnati has won three straight games as the underdog, and they are 11-12 when favored this year. They have not been great on the road, going 10-15 so far.
When the Reds win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.8. When they lose, they lose by an average of -3.1 runs. Their run line record is 29-27, with a -0.2 run differential. They are 16-9 against the run line on the road and 13-18 at home. As the underdog, they are 19-14 against the run line, and they have covered in three straight games as the underdog.
The Reds have had a high-scoring season so far, with their games averaging 8.3 runs per game. Their over/under record is 25-29, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. When the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone over 3 times and under 4 times. The over has hit in 66.1% of their games, and they are currently on a streak of 5 straight unders.
Cincinnati is sending right-hander Graham Ashcraft to the mound today as he faces the Cubs on the road. Ashcraft has made 10 starts this season and has a record of 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA. In his 10 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts and is coming off a game in which he didn’t allow a homer. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight outings. Ashcraft’s ERA at home is 7.69 compared to 3.03 on the road. His WHIP for the season is 1.44.
Elly De La Cruz comes into the game with a team-high nine home runs, which is 9th best in the league. He is also 2nd on the team with 24 RBIs and is batting .249 for the season. Spencer Steer and Will Benson are also near the top of the Reds’ home run leaderboard, but Steer is batting just .221 for the season, and Benson is hitting just .196.
Jake Fraley and Will Benson have both been swinging the bat well of late, with Fraley going 6/19 in his last five games and Benson going 3/8 with two homers in his last five games. Fraley is on a five-game hitting streak, while Jeimer Candelario has a three-game streak going.
The Cubs will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 6-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Brewers scored two runs in the bottom of the 8th. Chicago was the +105 underdog on the road going into the game.
Jameson Taillon put together a good start for the Cubs, going six innings and giving up just three earned runs, and striking out four. However, the Cubs couldnjson’t close things out, and Luke Little took the loss out of the bullpen. The Cubs also wasted a big game from Cody Bellinger, who homered in the 1st inning, going 2/4.
Chicago opens their series vs. the Reds with an overall record of 28-29, which has them 3rd in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 5.5 games in the division. The Cubs lost the final three games of their series vs. the Brewers, and they are 2-8 over their last 10 games.
So far, the Cubs are just 6-10 in divisional games this year. At home, they are 15-11 compared to 13-18 on the road. As the favorite, the Cubs have gone 12-11 this year and 16-18 as the underdog. Chicago’s overall series record is 7-9-2 this year, and they have lost five straight series.
The Cubs have been a better run line bet on the road this season, going 18-13 compared to 11-15 at home. They have been an underdog in 34 games and a favorite in 23, but they have covered the run line in only six of their 23 games as the favorite.
Chicago Cubs games have gone over the total in three straight games, and the over/under record for the season is 25-30. The average over/under line for Cubs games is 8 runs, and their combined run average is 8.7 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Cubs have gone over the total in just 2 of 10 games. Overall, 43.9% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher.
Chicago is sending Javier Assad to the mound today vs. the Reds, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cardinals. In that start, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that outing, he had put together three straight quality starts. Assad’s ERA for the season is 2.17, along with a record of 4-1. At home, he is 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA compared to 2-1 with a 2.98 ERA on the road. For the year, he has allowed six home runs and is averaging 8.38 strikeouts per nine innings.
For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. This is also their batting average, as they are hitting just .228 as a team. The Cubs have been good at drawing walks this season, as they are 4th in the league in this category. Chicago’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are averaging 4.3 runs per game at home and 4.3 on the road.
Christopher Morel has been a bright spot for the Cubs this season in terms of power, as he is 8th in the league with 10 homers. However, he is hitting just .198. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch are both batting over .240 and have 8 homers apiece. Bellinger is also on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 12/43 in his last 10 games.
Our pick for today’s Reds vs. Cubs matchup is to take the Cubs on the money line at -148. We see this game ending with a score of 6-5 in favor of the Cubs, giving us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Javier Assad finishing with more strikeouts than Graham Ashcraft. However, we have Assad finishing with just five K’s, which is still towards the bottom of the league in terms of starters.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Wilson | Out | Shoulder |
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Triceps |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
