Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Preview
Both the Braves and Cubs have been good this season, as they each have an overall record of 27-22. Atlanta is 2nd in the NL East, while the Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central. The money line odds have the Braves at -138 compared to the Cubs at +116, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.
First pitch from Wrigley Field is set for 7:40 PM ET, and BSSO will be televising this NL matchup. Max Fried is starting for the Braves, while the Cubs are going with Justin Steele.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Atlanta Braves odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Braves are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- On the opposing side, the Cubs have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 1-4 record in their last five home contests.
- The Braves have a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games as the favorite, and 5-5 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Cubs have a 0-10 record against the runline and a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Chicago rallied for three runs in the 10th inning in the most recent game of this Cubs vs Braves series. The Cubs scored two runs in the 2nd inning but didn’t score another run until putting up three in the top of the 10th, picking up a 4-3 win. Heading into the game, the Cubs were at +103 on the money line.
Javier Assad started for the Cubs and went just 4 2/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out four. Luke Little got the win out of the bullpen, and Aaron Bummer took the loss for the Braves. Charlie Morton had a good outing for Atlanta, going five innings and giving up one earned run.
Mike Tauchman went 2/5 with two RBIs, including the go-ahead run in the 10th inning. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II each had two hits and an RBI for the Braves.
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
With an overall record of 27-18, the Braves are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone 10-5 in divisional matchups. The Braves have dropped two straight games and are just 4-6 over their last 10.
At home, the Braves have been strong at 16-8 this season. On the road, they are just above .500 at 11-10. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 27-15, but they are winless in three games as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 10-4-1.
The Braves are 23-22 against the run line this season, and they have been slightly better on the road, where they are 12-9. They have been the favorite in 42 games, going 21-21 against the run line. Their average run differential is +0.9 runs per game, and they have a run differential of +1.2 runs per game on the road.
Atlanta’s road games have been high-scoring this season, with a combined run average of 8.3. The Braves have an over/under record of 14-29, and their games have averaged a line of 9 runs. When the line has been set at 9 runs, the over/under record is 3-6-1. In 24 of their games, the line has been set lower than 9 runs, and the under has hit in two straight games.
Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Cubs on the road. Fried has made 9 starts this season and has a record of 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Fried has a WHIP of 1.19 and opponents are batting .211 this season. One of his complete games and shutouts came this year, and he has turned in four quality starts. In his last outing, Fried took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late for the Braves, batting .325 for the season with a team-high 14 home runs and 43 RBIs. He has also gone 7/23 in his last six games, with two homers and three runs scored. Ozuna also comes into the game on a 14-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team in RBIs (25) but is hitting just .223 for the season.
As a team, the Braves are 10th in the league in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .252 as a team (6th) and are 7th in the league in slugging percentage.
The Cubs are 27-22 overall and trail the Brewers by 1.5 games in the NL Central. Chicago is 5-5 against other teams in the division and won the first game of their series vs. the Braves. So far, they are 15-9 at home compared to 12-13 on the road.
Chicago has dropped six of their last ten games, and they are 4-6 as the favorite during that span. As for their record as the underdog, the Cubs are 15-14 this year. The team’s overall series record is 7-6-2, and they have dropped two straight series.
Chicago has been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 26-23, but they have been much better on the road, where they are 15-10. They have been a better run line bet in games they have been the underdog, going 20-9, compared to games they have been the favorite, where they are just 6-14. The Cubs have an average run margin of 0.2 runs per game this season, but that number jumps to 1.1 runs per game at home.
The Cubs are playing at home against the Braves, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Cubs games this season is 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 20-27. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 2-3-2. Overall, only 10.2% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher, and their current under streak is at three games.
Justin Steele is getting the start for the Cubs at home against the Braves. This will be his 4th start of the season, and he has yet to pick up a win. In his last outing, he took the loss vs. the Pirates, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up 4 earned runs. He has yet to go more than 5 2/3 innings in a start this season.
So far this season, the Cubs are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .230, which is 17th in the league, and are also below average in terms of slugging percentage and OPS. The Cubs are 4th in the league in walks and have a collective on-base percentage of .314.
Christopher Morel and Cody Bellinger are the Cubs’ top power threats, as Morel leads the team with nine homers, and Bellinger is right behind him with seven. Morel is also 9th in the league with 33 RBIs. However, Morel is hitting just .213 for the season and has gone 6/31 in his last 10 games. Bellinger has also struggled of late, hitting just .225 in his last 10 games.
Our pick for today’s Braves vs. Cubs game is to take the Cubs on the money line, with the Cubs’ payout sitting at +116. We actually have the Cubs winning this one by a score of 6-5, giving us some room to take the Cubs on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Justin Steele finishing with five strikeouts, and he is also projected to give up fewer runs than Max Fried. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also look to take the over/under, with the line sitting at nine runs, we would take the over.
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (+116)
- On the run line we like Cubs (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Austin Riley | Questionable | Side |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Murphy | Out | Oblique |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
