Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Preview
Charlie Morton and the Braves will face off against Javier Assad and the Cubs on Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET. The game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Braves are currently 2nd in the NL East, while the Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central.
Atlanta is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -127 compared to the Cubs at +107. The over/under line is currently 10.5 runs, and the game can be seen on BSSO.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Atlanta Braves odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Braves in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Cubs have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 1-4 record in their last five home games.
- Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Braves are 6-4 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Cubs have a 0-10 record against the runline and a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Padres, the Braves closed out the series with a 3-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -244. Offensively, the Braves scored their three runs on json11 hits and only hit one home run.
Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out nine Padres batters. Marcell Ozuna was hot at the plate, going 2/3 with a homer and two RBIs.
With a record of 27-17, the Braves are five games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone 10-5 in divisional games, and they will be on the road today vs. the Cubs. Atlanta lost three of four in their most recent series vs. the Padres.
At home, the Braves have gone 16-8 this season, and they are just above .500 at 11-9 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 27-14, but they are 0-3 as the underdog this year. So far, they have an overall series record of 10-4-1.
The Braves have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 23-21 overall. They have been particularly good on the run line on the road, going 12-8. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.4 runs per game.
With an average combined run total of 8.3 runs per game, the Braves have gone under the over/under line in 14 of their 28 games. The average over/under line in their games is 9 runs, but the over/under line for today’s game is set at 10.5 runs. In games with an over/under line of 10.5 runs, the Braves have gone under the total in their only game.
Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 3.52. Morton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.15. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had gone seven innings in back-to-back outings, giving up a combined one earned run in those starts. Morton has made four quality starts this year and is averaging 8.61 strikeouts per nine innings.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top hitters this season, as his 43 RBIs are the most in the MLB, and he is also 3rd in home runs. He is batting .327 for the season and has gone 12/31 in his last nine games. Ozuna also has a current hitting streak of 13 games. Matt Olson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/32 with two homers and seven RBIs in his last nine games. For the season, Olson is batting just .230.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been a good home and road team this season. Their team batting average of .254 is 6th in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage and slugging. Overall, they are 7th in the league in OPS.
The Cubs will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Pirates with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Pirates scored two runs in the top of the 9th. Chicago was the -130 favorite at home going into the game.
Offensively, the Cubs only had two fewer hits than the Pirates but scored just two runs. Both of their runs came in the 3rd inning. Chicago’s other big issue was that they didn’t have a single player with more than two hits. Jameson Taillon got the start for the Cubs and took the loss. He only lasted 4 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs.
Chicago is 26-22 overall and 2nd in the NL Central, 1.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Cubs will host the Braves today with an overall division record of 5-5. They dropped three of four games in their most recent series vs. the Pirates.
At home, the Cubs are 14-9 this season compared to a 12-13 mark on the road. As the underdog, the Cubs are an even 14-14 this year and 12-8 as the favorite. Chicago’s overall series record is 7-6-2, but they have dropped two straight series at home.
Chicago has been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 25-23. They have been even better on the road, going 15-10, compared to just 10-13 at home. They have been a good bet as an underdog, going 19-9, but not so much as a favorite, going just 6-14.
The Chicago Cubs have had a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 20-26. When the over/under line has been set at 10.5 runs, the Cubs have gone under in their lone game. In 47 of their games this season, the over/under line has been set below 10.5 runs, and their games have gone under in 97.9% of those contests. The Cubs have hit the under in their last two games, and their games have averaged 8.0 runs per game over their last 10 contests.
Through nine starts, Javier Assad is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.49 for the Cubs. He has made three quality starts this year and is averaging 7.82 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Assad didn’t allow a run, picking up the win after going six innings vs. the Braves. At home, he is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.88, compared to 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA on the road. Assad has allowed a total of two homers this year. Overall, he has made nine appearances and has a WHIP of 1.03.
So far this season, the Cubs are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.5 runs per game. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .230, but have been good at drawing walks and have a collective OBP of .314.
Christopher Morel has been a big power threat for the Cubs this season, as his nine home runs are 8th in the league. However, he is batting just .216. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch are both tied for 2nd on the team with seven homers. Bellinger has gone 8/27 in his last seven games, but both Ian Happ and Miguel Amaya have struggled at the plate of late.
Our predicted final score for this game is 5.1 in favor of the Cubs. With the Cubs being the underdog and a +107 payout, they are our recommended pick for today’s game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Charlie Morton finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Javier Assad with four. However, we still have Assad picking up the win in this one.
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Cubs (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 10 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Dansby Swanson | Probable | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Nico Hoerner | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Austin Riley | Questionable | Side |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Murphy | Out | Oblique |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
