Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Betting Tips 7/19/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

At 2:20 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Cubs face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Diamondbacks are slight money line favorites (-106). The Cubs are currently 5th in the NL Central, while the Diamondbacks are 2nd in the NL West.

MLBN is carrying this one on TV, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs. Justin Steele is starting for the Cubs, and the Diamondbacks are going with Ryne Nelson.

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Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats

• 4-1 is the record of Diamondbacks in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
• The Cubs, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 record.
• The Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite and 6-4 as the underdog.
• The Cubs are 4-6 (favorite) and 6-4 (underdog).

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

The Diamondbacks will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Blue Jays with an 8-7 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a seven-run lead after the 3rd inning. However, the Blue Jays scored six runs in the 4th to tie things up, and added another two runs in the 5th to take the lead. Arizona was the -155 favorite at home going into the game.

Zac Gallen had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs on nine hits and issuing three walks. He also only lasted 3 2/3 innings, taking the loss. The Diamondbacks’s offense was hot early, as they scored seven runs in the 2nd inning but didn’t score again the rest of the game. Ketel Marte went 3/5 with a homer and four RBIs.

Arizona is 49-48 overall as they play on the road vs. the Cubs today. The Diamondbacks are seven games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and are 2nd in the division. So far, they have gone 19-14 in divisional games.

At home, the Diamondbacks are 26-24 this season and are just below .500 at 23-24 on the road. Arizona has won two straight on the road, and they are 4-6 when favored on the road this year.

Arizona has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 26-21. The Diamondbacks have been outscoring opponents by an average of 0.5 runs per game on the road this season, and they have covered the run line in their last two road games. Overall, Arizona’s run line record is 49-48, and they have been a better bet as the underdog, going 31-22 against the run line.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the road today against the Chicago Cubs, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have played in games with an average of 9.8 runs per game this season and have a 52-42 over/under record. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 6-4. Overall, 84.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at three games.

Ryne Nelson is looking to build off his last outing, where he went 6 2/3 innings and gave up just one earned run. In that outing vs. the Padres, he only allowed three hits and issued three walks. Looking back further, Nelson has made six straight starts without giving up more than three earned runs. Overall, he has a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 4.99. Nelson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.42. Opposing batters are hitting .296 off Nelson this season. The right-hander has a batting average of .283 on the road compared to .319 at home.

Arizona comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offensive teams, averaging 5 runs per contest, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .254, which is the 5th best mark in the league.

Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been the Diamonbacks’ top power threats this season, with Walker’s 22 homers leading the team and Marte’s 19 homers being the 2nd most on the team. Over his last nine games, Eugenio Suarez has gone 11/32 with four homers and 14 RBIs. Walker and a few other Diamondbacks’ hitters come into the game on three-game hitting streaks.

The Cubs’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Cardinals, closing out their series with an 8-3 win. After allowing two runs to the Cardinals in the 2nd inning, the Cubs responded with two runs of their own. Chicago went on to add another four runs in the 3rd inning.

Starting for the Cubs was Jameson Taillon, who picked up the win. He went 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on seven hits. Taillon only had three strikeouts in the outing and got the win thanks to the Cubs’s offense.

With a record of 47-51, the Cubs are 5th in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 12-21 in divisional games. The Cubs will be at home today, hosting the Diamondbacks, and they are 9-5 as home underdogs this year.

Chicago has gone 22-30 on the road this year compared to a mark of 25-21 at home. As the favorite, the Cubs are an even 22-22 this year and 25-29 when the underdog. The Cubs are coming off a series split with the Cardinals and are 7-3 over their last 10 games.

When it comes to betting the run line on the Cubs, it’s been a tale of two teams. They are 18-28 vs. the run line at home, where they are being outscored by 0.5 runs per game. However, they are 31-21 vs. the run line on the road, where they are outscoring opponents by 0.4 runs per game. They are 36-18 vs. the run line as an underdog this season.

The Chicago Cubs will be hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks in a game with an over/under line of 7.5 runs. The Cubs’ games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 43-51. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 12 times and under 10 times. Overall, 67.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and they are currently on a three-game over streak.

Left-hander Justin Steele gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Diamondbacks at home. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 2.71. Steele’s WHIP for the season is .95, and he has turned in eight quality starts. In his last outing, he didn’t give up a run in seven innings of work, picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. Steele has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 3.16 compared to 2.96 on the road.

For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. This is also right around their home and road splits. As a team, they are batting .235, which is 15th in the league, and they are 15th in home runs. Chicago’s offense has been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 24th in the league in strikeouts per game.

Over his last nine games, Nico Hoerner has gone 14/37, but he has yet to homer in that stretch. Christopher Morel has three homers in his last eight games and is also 8/33 in that stretch. Morel is batting just .202 for the season, while Morel comes in at .243. Morel does lead the Cubs with 57 RBIs.

Our pick for today’s Diamondbacks vs. Cubs game is to take the Diamondbacks on the money line, with the payout being -106. We actually have the Diamondbacks winning this one by a score of 5-4.

Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, we have Justin Steele finishing with six strikeouts compared to Ryne Nelson with four. Steele is projected to give up fewer runs and finish with more strikeouts, so if you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could look at the over/under on Steele’s strikeout total.

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips

• We like the Diamondbacks on the moneyline (-106)
• The Diamondbacks are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Chicago Cubs Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report