Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview
Friday’s matchup between the Rays and Red Sox is set to get started at 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -133 compared to the Rays, who are +114. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
NECN will be televising Friday’s game, and the Red Sox will be looking to move above .500 for the season. They are 80-79, while the Rays are 78-81 and have lost three straight. Nick Pivetta is set to start for the Red Sox, while the Rays are going with Taj Bradley.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Trends and Key Stats
- 0-5 is the record of Rays in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Red Sox have gone 3-2 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Red Sox have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- Looking at the Rays’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
The Rays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Tigers with a 4-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Tigers scored two runs in the bottom of the 8th. Tampa Bay was the +135 underdog on the road going into this game.
Tyler Alexander put together a good start for the Rays, going five innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out six Tigers batters. However, the Rays’ bullpen couldnjson’t close things out, and Garrett Cleavinger took the loss out of the bullpen. The Rays also wasted a big game from Taylor Walls, who went 2/3 with two runs scored.
Tampa Bay heads into today’s game in 4th place in the AL East, two games behind the Red Sox for 3rd place. Overall, the Rays are 78-81, putting them 15 games behind the Yankees for the lead in the AL East. They have dropped three straight games, losing the final three games of their series vs. the Tigers.
At home, the Rays are 42-39 this season and 36-42 on the road. As the underdog, the Rays are 41-50 this year and 37-31 as the favorite. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 23-20-7, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When the Rays win, they win big, with an average run margin of 2.7 runs. However, when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.4 runs. Their overall run line record is 82-77, and their run line record on the road is 45-33. They have been an underdog in most games, and their run line record as an underdog is 58-33.
The Rays are on the road against the Red Sox today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Rays games this season is 7.9 runs, and their over/under record is 66-84. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Rays have a record of 17-24-2. So far this season, 46 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 28.9% of their games.
Taj Bradley gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 7-11 with an ERA of 4.29. Bradley’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.25. In his 24 appearances, he has turned in nine quality starts. Bradley’s ERA is higher on the road at 5.7 compared to 5.3 at home. He most recently pitched on September 21st, where he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that outing, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts.
So far this season, the Rays offense is averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team batting average. As a team, they are batting just .230 and have an on-base percentage of only .302. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, including Brandon Lowe, who is batting .250 with three homers over his last 10 games.
Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter this season, batting .282 with a team-high 65 RBIs. He is also 3rd on the team with 14 homers. Both Christopher Morel and Brandon Lowe are tied for the team lead with 21 homers, but Morel is batting just .194, and Lowe is at .242 for the season.
Boston closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a 6-1 loss. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were the +113 underdog on the money line. Things started off well for the Red Sox, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Blue Jays scored two runs in the bottom of the first.
Richard Fitts got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up four earned runs on six hits. Offensively, the Red Sox had seven hits but only scored one run. Jarren Duran and Nick Sogard each had two hits and scored one run apiece.
Boston hosts the Rays today with an overall record of 80-79, and they are 13 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. Currently, they are 3rd in the division and have gone 24-25 against other AL East teams. The Red Sox have been good at times this year, but they have yet to put together a real push to get closer to the Yankees.
At home, the Red Sox are 37-41 compared to 43-38 on the road. As the favorite, Boston is 41-35 this year and 39-44 as the underdog. Boston has won two straight at home, and their overall series record is 25-19-6. They have won two straight series.
When betting the run line on the Red Sox this season, they have been a better bet on the road than at home. They are 46-35 against the run line on the road compared to 30-48 at home. They have a run line record of 76-83 overall this season. They have gone over the run line in two straight games and are 28-48 against the run line as the favorite this season.
With a combined run average of 9.3 runs per game, the Boston Red Sox have seen their fair share of high-scoring contests this season. Their over/under record of 78-73 reflects that trend, and when the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have gone 15-11-3. Overall, 66.0% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs.
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Twins, he only allowed four hits and issued three walks. Pivetta finished with the win in that outing. Overall, he has made 25 starts and 10 of them have been quality starts. Pivetta’s record for the season is 6-11, and his ERA is 4.21. Opponents are batting .228 off the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, Pivetta is averaging 10.75 strikeouts compared to 2.27 walks.
Heading into today’s game, Jarren Duran is the Red Sox’s top hitter, batting .286 for the season and is currently on a six-game hitting streak. Over his last eight games, he has gone 10/33 with five runs scored and three RBIs. Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat, as his 28 home runs are 2nd on the team and 14th in the league.
As a team, the Red Sox are 6th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better in terms of batting average, as their team mark of .253 is 6th in the league. Overall, their team on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS are all 6th in the league.
Our prediction for today’s Rays vs. Red Sox game is to take the Red Sox on the money line at -133. We have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 5-4. Given that the payout for a Red Sox win is higher than the payout for the Red Sox to win, we recommend sticking with the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Nick Pivetta has a higher chance of picking up a win than Taj Bradley. Pivetta is also projected to finish with seven strikeouts compared to Bradley, who is projected to finish with seven as well. The Red Sox lineup is projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Rays, who are projected to finish with eight.
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips
- Take the Red Sox on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Rays (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | Out | Shoulder |
| James Paxton | Out | Calf |
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Rob Refsnyder | Out | Wrist |
| Rafael Devers | Out | Shoulder |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Brennan Bernardino | Out | Forearm |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Elbow |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| David Hamilton | Out | Finger |
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Jeffrey Springs | Out | Elbow |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
| Pete Fairbanks | Out | Lat |
