Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Betting Tips 7/30/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Preview

From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Mariners and Red Sox facing off in an AL matchup. This one gets started at 7:10 PM ET and is being televised by NESN. The money line odds have the Mariners at -119 compared to the Red Sox at +101, and the over/under line is at 9.5 runs.

Seattle will be looking for a win with Luis Castillo on the mound, while the Red Sox are starting James Paxton. Boston is 3rd in the AL East, while the Mariners are 2nd in the AL West.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Mariners are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
• In the Red Sox’s five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
• Over their last ten games, the Mariners have a 3-7 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
• Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Red Sox have gone 5-5 vs. the runline and 6-4 straight-up.

Boston cruised to a 14-7 win over the Mariners in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox had a huge 3rd inning, scoring seven of their fourteen runs. As for the Mariners, they scored their seven runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were favored at -122 on the money line.

Nick Pivetta got the win for the Red Sox, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with ten strikeouts but issued five walks. Logan Gilbert had a rough outing for the Mariners, taking the loss after going just 2 2/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs.

Randy Arozarena hit the game’s only home run while going 2/3 with three RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Masataka Yoshida did a bit of everything for the Red Sox, going 3/5 with a homer and four RBIs.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Seattle is 56-52 overall this season, and they are in 2nd place in the AL West, tied with the Astros for the division lead. The Mariners are 3.5 games ahead of the Rangers for 3rd place in the division. So far, they have gone 19-13 in AL West matchups.

On the road today, the Mariners are 25-29 compared to going 31-23 at home. Seattle needs to get back on track, as they have dropped six of their last ten games. As the road favorite, the Mariners are 13-14 this year, and they are 37-32 when favored overall. As for their record as the underdog, Seattle is 19-20 this year, and their overall series record is 15-17-2.

Seattle has played to the run line in 108 of its 108 games this season, going 48-60. The Mariners are 25-29 on the run line on the road, and their average run differential in all games is +0.2 runs per game.

The Mariners are on the road against the Red Sox today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. Seattle’s games have averaged 7.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 46-57. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over is 0-1. Only 1.9% of their games have had higher lines than 9.5 runs, and their over streak is at four games.

Seattle is sending Luis Castillo to the mound today vs. the Red Sox, and he comes in with a record of 8-10 and an ERA of 3.38. So far, he has made 22 starts, and opponents are batting .229 this season. In his 22 appearances, Castillo has turned in 14 quality starts and is averaging 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The right-hander’s last outing came on July 24th, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and not allowing a run vs. the Angels. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Cal Raleigh has been the Mariners’ most consistent power threat this season, as his 23 home runs are the best mark on the team and 11th best in the league. He also comes into the game as the team’s leader in RBIs, with 67. Julio Rodriguez is batting .263 for the season and has 11 homers, which is 4th on the team. Rodriguez has also driven in 37 runs, which is 3rd on the team.

Seattle’s offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. However, they do come into the game with a few hitters on some nice streaks, with Cal Raleigh having a five-game hitting streak and Randy Arozarena and Dylan Moore having three and four-game streaks, respectively.

Boston is 56-49 overall and trails the Orioles by six games in the AL East. The Red Sox are 3rd in the division and have gone 14-13 in AL East games. The Red Sox have lost three straight series and have an overall series record of 16-13-5 this year.

At home, the Red Sox are 26-27 this year and 30-22 on the road. So far, they have been a bit better as the favorite, going 32-22. As the underdog, the Red Sox are 24-27 this year. Looking at their recent form, the Red Sox are just 3-7 over their last ten games.

Despite being the favorite in most games, the Red Sox have a losing run line record overall, but they have actually been a profitable run line bet on the road, where they are 29-23. Their average run differential in winning games is +4.2, while it’s -4.2 in losses.

When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, which is exactly their combined run average for the season. Their over/under record for the season is 52-47, and their games have averaged a line of 9 runs. When the line is set at 9.5 runs, their over/under record is 7-7. Their games have had an over/under line of 9.5 runs in 9.5% of their games this season, with 77.1% of their games having a lower line. The over has hit in their last five games.

Left-hander James Paxton gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces off against the Mariners. Paxton has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 8-2 with an ERA of 4.43. Looking at his overall numbers, Paxton has a WHIP of 1.46 and has turned in six quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.45 strikeouts and 4.84 walks. In his last outing, Paxton picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits. He has allowed at least two homers in three of his last four starts.

Not only do the Red Sox come into the game with the 6th best scoring offense in the league, but they are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. Leading the way for the Red Sox offense has been Rafael Devers, who is 10th in the league with 23 home runs and has driven in 64 runs, which is 13th best in the league. Devers is also on a six-game hitting streak. Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill are also having good seasons, with O’Neill being 2nd on the team with 22 homers.

Both Duran and O’Neill have been swinging the bat well of late, with Duran going 12/38 in his last eight games and O’Neill going 10/30 with four homers in his last seven games. Duran has also scored 11 runs in this stretch, while O’Neill has nine RBIs.

Our pick for today’s Mariners vs. Red Sox game is to take the Red Sox on the money line at +101. We have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 5-4, and with the Red Sox getting the win, there is some nice value in picking them on the money line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have James Paxton finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the fourth-best among all starters today. As for Luis Castillo, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which ranks him 11th among starters.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Betting Tips

• We like the Red Sox on the moneyline (+101)
• On the run line we like Red Sox (+1.5)
• Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under

Boston Red Sox Injury Report

Seattle Mariners Injury Report