Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview
From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Phillies and Red Sox facing off in an interleague matchup. The Phillies are 45-20 and 1st in the NL East, while the Red Sox are 33-33 and 3rd in the AL East. Kutter Crawford is starting for the Red Sox, and the Phillies have Zack Wheeler on the mound.
Philadelphia is favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -169 compared to the Red Sox at +143. Tuesday’s over/under line is at 8 runs, and NSPPH is carrying the game on TV.
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Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- The Phillies are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Red Sox have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games, the Phillies have a 7-3 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- The Red Sox have a 3-7 record vs. the runline and a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Mets with a 6-5 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Mets scored three runs in the top of the 9th. Philadelphia was the -144 favorite at home going into the game.
Taijuan Walker was excellent for the Phillies, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just two runs on two hits. He also issued only one walk and struck out six Mets batters. However, the Phillies bullpen couldnjson’t close things out, and José Alvarado took the loss out of the bullpen. The Phillies also wasted a big game from David Dahl, who homered in the 1st inning, going 1/1.
Philadelphia is 45-20 overall this season, and they lead the NL East by nine games over the Braves. The Phillies will be on the road today to take on the Red Sox, with their overall record including a 12-6 mark in the division. The Phillies have won two straight games on the road.
At home, the Phillies are 27-10 this season, and they have gone 18-10 on the road. The Phillies have been really good in night games, going 30-10 this year. They have also been dominant as the favorite, putting together a mark of 40-16. As the underdog, the Phillies are 5-4 this season.
Philadelphia has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 36-29 overall and 16-12 on the road. The Phillies have been favored in 56 games and have covered the run line in 55% of those contests. They have a run differential of +1.7 runs per game on the season, and that number jumps to +1.8 runs per game at home.
The Phillies are on the road against the Red Sox today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 27-34. When their over/under line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone over 11 times and under 7 times. Overall, 36.9% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 or higher, and they are currently on a six-game under streak.
Zack Wheeler has been pitching well for the Phillies this season, as he comes into the game with a record of 7-3 and an ERA of 2.23. Wheeler has made 13 starts this year and has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run on six hits. He ended up with the win in that start. Wheeler has been especially tough at home, coming in with a record of 5-2 and an ERA of 1.88. On the road, his ERA is 3.83, and he is 2-1.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as the MLB’s 2nd highest-scoring offense, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game. As a team, the Phillies are 6th in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the league. Not only do they have a lot of power, but they also do a good job of getting on base, as they are 3rd in the league in walks and have the 3rd best on-base percentage in the league.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are two of the Phillies’ top power threats, with Harper’s 15 homers being 7th best in the league and Schwarber’s 11 homers putting him 11th in the league. Schwarber comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and is batting .235 for the season. Alec Bohm has been the Phillies’ most consistent hitter this season, batting .291 with a team-high 51 RBIs.
The Red Sox’s most recent game was a 6-4 win over the White Sox to close out their series. Boston was the -145 favorite on the money line going into the game. Things started off well for the Red Sox, as they got on the board with a run in the 4th inning and added another run in the 5th.
However, the White Sox scored three times in the 4th to take the lead, and Boston’s offense really struggled until the 9th inning. The Red Sox scored two runs in the top of the 9th to pick up the win. Cam Booser picked up the save, and Kenley Jansen got the win out of the bullpen.
Boston is right at .500 with a record of 33-33, and they are 3rd in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by 13 games. So far, they are just 5-8 against other AL East teams. The Red Sox are at home today, hosting the Phillies, and they are 14-18 at home this year.
The Red Sox have been better on the road, coming in with a mark of 19-15. As the underdog, Boston has dropped three straight, and they are 14-19 as the underdog overall. When favored, the Red Sox are 19-14 this year, and their overall series record is 8-9-4.
The Red Sox are a team to watch when it comes to run line betting. They have a run line record of 30-36, and they have been a better bet on the run line on the road (20-14) than at home (10-22). The Red Sox have an average run margin of +0.5 runs per game, but they have been outscored at home (-0.4) and have a run line losing streak when favored in three straight games.
The Red Sox are at home today against the Phillies with an over/under line of 8 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.5 runs per game, and their over/under record is 28-33. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 5-4-2. So far this season, 57.6% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Right-hander Kutter Crawford is getting the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Phillies at home. He has made 13 starts this season and has a record of 2-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Crawford’s WHIP for the season is 1.18, and opponents are batting .227 off him this year. In his 13 appearances, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Crawford’s most recent outing was a rough one, as he gave up four earned runs in six innings of work, taking the loss. He has lost three straight starts.
Boston’s offense has been a bit better on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game compared to 4.0 runs per game at home. Overall, they are 10th in the league at 4.5 runs per contest. The Red Sox are also among the league leaders in team slugging percentage and isolated power. As a team, they are batting .247, which is the 7th best mark in the league.
Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 13 homers are the best on the team and 9th in the MLB. He is also hitting .284 and is 2nd on the team with 32 RBIs. Devers has gone deep twice in his last four games, going 4/13 in that stretch. Jarren Duran has also gone deep in two straight games and is 7/22 in his last five games.
Given that the Red Sox are the underdogs at +143, we see this as a great opportunity to take them on the money line. Our predicted score is that the Red Sox will pick up a 6-5 win, and with the payout at +143, there is a lot of value there.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Kutter Crawford going 5 innings and finishing with five strikeouts. As for Zack Wheeler, we have him finishing with six strikeouts over his five innings of work.
Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips
- We like the Red Sox on the moneyline (+143)
- On the run line we like Red Sox (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Martin | Out | Anxiety |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Questionable | Knee |
| Rafael Devers | Questionable | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Romy Gonzalez | Out | Hamstring |
| Vaughn Grissom | Out | Hamstring |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Wilyer Abreu | Out | Ankle |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | Out | Hamstring |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Ankle |
| Brandon Marsh | Out | Hamstring |
| Kody Clemens | Out | Back |
| Yunior Marte | Out | Shoulder |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
