Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 1:35 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, we have an interleague matchup between the Brewers and Red Sox. Milwaukee is currently on a two-game winning streak, and they are 30-21, which has them in 1st place in the NL Central. The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East with an overall record of 26-26.
Boston comes into the game as the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -147 compared to the Brewers at +123. Sunday’s over/under line is at 9 runs, and the forecast in Boston calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Tanner Houck is starting for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Tobias Myers for the Brewers. BSWI is carrying this game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Boston Red Sox – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Brewers are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Red Sox have gone 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have won 4-6 straight-up, and have a 2-8 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Brewers’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 7-3 straight-up and 9-1 vs. the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Red Sox by a score of 6-3. The Brewers offense only had one more hit than the Red Sox and struck out eight times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +128 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Jared Koenig for the Brewers and Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox. Koenig only went 1 1/3 innings but didn’t give up a hit or an earned run. On the other side, Pivetta was tagged for five runs in 3 1/3 innings of work.
Milwaukee’s two-through-five hitters, Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, Jake Bauers, and Sal Frelick, each had two hits and an RBI. Turang and Bauers each homered for the Brewers’ only two extra-base hits of the game.
Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is on a two-game winning streak, and they lead the NL Central with a record of 30-21. The Brewers hold a 3.5-game lead over the Cubs in the division. So far, they have gone 13-7 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Brewers are 12-9 this year, and they have gone 18-12 on the road. As the road underdog, the Brewers have put together a record of 13-6 this year. They have also won two straight as the underdog, and their overall series record is 8-6-2.
When the Brewers are on the road, they are a solid bet on the run line, going 18-12 so far this season. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 18-8 as the underdog on the run line. Their average run differential on the road is +1.2 runs per game.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox, with the over/under line set at 9 runs. The Brewers’ games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 29-22. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 2-1. Only 7.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, and their games have gone under the line in 86.3% of their contests. They are currently on a three-game under streak.
Getting the start for the Brewers today is Tobias Myers, who is making his third start of the season. Myers has a win and a no-decision in his first two outings, and he has yet to go more than 5 innings in a start. His last outing was a one-inning relief appearance, and he has yet to go more than 5 innings in a start.
William Contreras has been a key player for the Brewers this season, as he is batting .333, which is the top mark on the team. He also has the 5th most RBIs in the league and is 2nd on the team with eight homers. However, he has gone just 6/27 in his last six games. Rhys Hoskins has also been a solid power threat for the Brewers, as he has nine homers but is batting just .233.
As a team, the Brewers have been one of the league’s best offensive teams, averaging 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are 2nd in team batting average and have the league’s 2nd best BABIP.
Boston will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak today, as they are down 0-2 in their series vs. the Brewers. Overall, the Red Sox are at .500 with a record of 26-26, and they trail the Yankees by 10 games in the AL East. So far, they are just 4-6 in AL East matchups.
At home, the Red Sox are 10-15 this year and 16-11 on the road. As the favorite, Boston has gone 13-11 this year and 13-15 as the underdog. So far, they have dropped four straight games at home. Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox have an overall series record of 8-7-1.
When it comes to the run line, the Red Sox are a much better bet on the road than at home, where they are just 7-18. They have lost seven straight at home on the run line and are just 2-7 when favored. However, they are 17-11 on the run line when they are the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.4, while it is -3.2 in losing games.
The Red Sox have played in 48 games with an average of 8.2 runs scored. Their over/under record is 19-29, and their average over/under line is 8. When the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 2-1-2. Only 11.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, and their under streak is at 2 games.
Tanner Houck gets the start for the Red Sox today and is coming off a strong outing vs. the Rays. In that May 20th start, he went seven innings, picking up the win and not giving up a run. Looking at his overall numbers, Houck has made 10 starts, and opponents are batting .204 vs. the right-hander. Houck’s ERA for the season is 1.94, along with a record of 4-5. One of his complete games this year was a shutout. Houck has turned in eight quality starts this season.
Heading into today’s game, Ceddanne Rafaela is batting just .200 for the Red Sox, but he has five homers, which is the best mark on the team. Rafaela has also been swinging a better bat of late, going 5/19 in his last five games with a home run and four runs scored. Rafael Devers has also been a consistent power threat for the Red Sox, as his 10 homers are 2nd on the team and 7th in the league. Devers comes into the game with a batting average of .276.
As a team, the Red Sox are averaging 4.4 runs per game, and they have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 8th in home runs and have the 11th best team batting average in the league. Boston has been a tough team to strike out this season, but they are just 25th in walks.
Our predicted final score for today’s Brewers vs. Red Sox matchup is 6-4 in favor of the Brewers. Given that the Brewers are the underdogs, we love the value you can get by taking them on the money line at +123.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Tanner Houck finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Tobias Myers with five. However, Houck is projected to go just 5-6 innings, while Myers should finish with around 5-6 as well.
Offensively, the Brewers have a much higher projected strikeout total compared to the Red Sox, and they also have a higher projected home run total. In terms of hits, the Brewers are projected to finish with 11, compared to the Red Sox with eight.
Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- We like the Brewers on the moneyline (+123)
- The Brewers are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Questionable | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Hamstring |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
