Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Brewers and Red Sox facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch for Saturday’s matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET. BSWI is carrying the game on TV, and the money line odds have the Red Sox as the favorite at -148.
Milwaukee comes into the game with a record of 29-21, while the Red Sox are 26-25. The over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs, and Nick Pivetta is starting for the Red Sox. The Brewers are starting Colin Rea.
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Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Brewers in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Red Sox, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- As the favorite, the Red Sox are 4-6 over their last ten games, including going 2-8 vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Brewers’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 9-1 vs. the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Red Sox by a score of 7-2. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Red Sox and struck out six more times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +114 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Jared Koenig for the Brewers and Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox. Koenig only went two-thirds of an inning but didn’t give up a hit or an earned run. On the other side, Crawford was tagged for six runs in 4 1/3 innings of work.
Milwaukee’s two-through-five hitters did the most damage, as William Contreras, Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and Blake Perkins each had two hits and two RBIs. Contreras and Yelich both homered for the Brewers.
Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is 29-21 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL Central. They currently lead the Cubs by 2.5 games for the top spot in the division. The Brewers have gone 13-7 against other teams in the NL Central.
So far, the Brewers have been good on the road, putting up a record of 17-12 compared to 12-9 at home. As the road underdog, the Brewers have gone 12-6 this year, and they are 14-11 overall as the favorite. Milwaukee has an overall series record of 8-6-2 this year.
When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs. However, when they lose, it’s usually by a close margin, as their average run margin in losses is -3.0. Their run line record is at .500, but they have been better on the road, going 17-12 against the run line away from home.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The O/U line for the game is set at 9.5, which is higher than their combined run average of 9.2. The Brewers have gone over the total in 29 of their 50 games this season, and their average O/U line is set at 8 runs. However, the O/U line has been set at 9.5 runs in just three of their games, and they have gone over the total in two of those contests. The under has hit in two straight games for the Brewers.
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Colin Rea to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made nine starts this year and has a record of 3-2 with a 4.07 ERA. Rea’s WHIP for the season is 1.40, and he has turned in three quality starts. In his most recent outing, Rea took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work vs. the Astros. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Rea’s ERA on the road is 4.93 compared to 3.38 at home.
William Contreras has been a big part of the Brewers’ offense this season, as he is batting .337 with a team-high 42 RBIs and is 2nd on the team with eight home runs. In his last nine games, he has gone 10/38 with three homers and 12 RBIs. Rhys Hoskins has also been a good power threat for the Brewers, as he is batting just .233 but has nine home runs.
As a team, the Brewers are 3rd in the league in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and have the 5th best team batting average in the league.
Boston is 26-25 overall this season, and they are nine games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox lost the first game of their series vs. the Brewers and are 4-6 in the AL East this year. So far, they have gone 10-14 at home compared to 16-11 on the road.
As the favorite, the Red Sox are 13-10 this year and 13-15 as the underdog. At home, they have dropped three straight, and their overall series record is 8-7-1 this year. Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 5-5 over their last 10.
When betting the run line on the Red Sox, it’s been a much better proposition to take them on the road this season. They are 17-10 against the run line on the road, compared to 7-17 at home. They have a run differential of +1.8 on the road, compared to -0.6 at home. They are also 17-11 against the run line as an underdog this season.
The Boston Red Sox are playing at home against the Milwaukee Brewers today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The Red Sox have an average combined run average of 8.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 19-28. Their average over/under line for games this season is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, they have gone 0-3. Only 3.9% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher, with 90.2% of their games having lower lines.
Nick Pivetta is getting the start for the Red Sox at home against the Brewers. In his first start of the season, Pivetta went 6 innings, giving up 1 run and striking out 8. He picked up a win in that outing. In his most recent start, he went 5 2/3 innings and struck out 8 but took a no-decision.
So far this season, the Red Sox are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the majors. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .244, which is 10th in the league, and are also one of the league’s best power-hitting teams, with a collective ISO of .164.
Rafael Devers has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 10 homers is the 2nd best mark on the team and 8th best in the majors. However, he is coming off a stretch in which he has gone just 5/27 in his last seven games. Ceddanne Rafaela is the team’s leading RBI man, but he is batting just .193 for the season.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Red Sox matchup is to take the Red Sox on the money line at -148. We actually have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 6-5, so there is some value on taking them to win straight up.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Nick Pivetta finishing with six strikeouts compared to Colin Rea with five. Pivetta is also projected to give up fewer hits than Rea, and we have him finishing with a better chance to pick up the win.
Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Red Sox on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Garrett Cooper | Probable | Shoulder |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Hamstring |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
