Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Friday’s interleague matchup between the Brewers and Red Sox is set to get started at 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox have won four straight and are 26-24 overall, while the Brewers are leading the NL Central with a record of 28-21.
BSWI is the money line favorite for tonight’s game, and the over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs. Kutter Crawford is slated to start for the Red Sox, while the Brewers are going with Bryse Wilson. This one will be televised on BSWI.
Check out BetCoco for Boston Red Sox – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Brewers in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Red Sox have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have won 5-5 straight-up, and have a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Brewers have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Brewers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Marlins with a 1-0 loss. This was especially tough, as they held the lead going into the 9th inning before the Marlins scored a run in the bottom of the 9th. Milwaukee was the -132 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Freddy Peralta was excellent for the Brewers, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out seven. However, the Brewers couldnjson’t close things out, and Peralta took the loss. The Brewers also wasted a big game from Gary Sánchez, who went 2/3 with a double.
Milwaukee heads into today’s road matchup vs. the Red Sox holding a 28-21 record, which has them leading the NL Central by 2 games over the Cubs. The Brewers lost two of three in their series vs. the Marlins, and they are 4-6 across their last 10 games. So far, they have gone 13-7 against other teams in the NL Central.
As the road team, the Brewers have gone 16-12 compared to 12-9 at home. Milwaukee has been good as the underdog on the road this year, going 11-6, and they are 14-11 as the favorite. The team’s overall series record is 8-6-2, and they lost two straight series before taking the final game of their most recent series vs. the Marlins.
When the Brewers are favored, they are just 8-17 on the run line, but when they are the underdog, they are 16-8. The average run margin in their wins this season is +3.6, while in their losses, it’s -3.0. Overall, they are 24-25 against the run line this season.
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. Their combined run average this season is 9.2, and their over/under record is 29-20. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 9.5 runs, and their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs. Their over/under record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 2-0. So far this season, none of their games have had an over/under line set higher than 9.5 runs.
Right-hander Bryse Wilson gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made six starts this season and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 2.79. Wilson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. The last time he took the mound, Wilson finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Wilson has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 7.22 strikeouts per nine innings.
William Contreras has been one of the Brewers’ top hitters this season, coming in with a batting average of .333 and a team-high 40 RBIs. He is also 2nd on the team with seven home runs. However, Contreras has struggled a bit of late, going just 4/25 in his last six games. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are also near the top of the Brewers’ home run and RBI leaderboards, but they are batting just .238 and .233, respectively.
As a team, the Brewers are 3rd in the league in scoring at 5 runs per game. They are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Collectively, they have been very good at avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 19th fewest strikeouts in the league.
The Red Sox’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Rays, closing out their series with an 8-5 win. After allowing three runs to the Rays in the 2nd inning, the Red Sox responded with five runs of their own. Boston went on to add another three runs in the 5th inning.
Starting for the Red Sox was Brayan Bello, who picked up the win. He went six innings, giving up three earned runs, and issued just one walk. The Red Sox’s offense was carried by Wilyer Abreu, who went 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
Boston is hosting the Brewers today with an overall record of 26-24, and they are eight games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox closed out their series vs. the Rays with three straight wins, and they have won four in a row. So far, they are 4-6 in the division.
At home, the Red Sox are 10-13 this year and 16-11 on the road. So far, they have been good in day games, going 14-6 this year. As the home favorite, the Red Sox are 7-8 and 13-15 as the underdog overall. Boston’s series record is 8-7-1 this year.
When betting the run line, the Red Sox have been a much better bet on the road, where they are 17-10. They are just 7-16 at home, where they have lost five straight run line bets. As the favorite, they are just 7-15 on the run line, compared to 17-11 as the underdog. Their average run margin is +0.8 runs per game, with a +1.8 road scoring margin and a -.4 run scoring margin at home.
With a combined run average of 8.2 runs per game, the Boston Red Sox have an over/under record of 19-27 on the season. Their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs per game, but in the two games with an over/under line of 9.5 runs, the under has hit both times. Overall, 46 of their 50 games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 9.5-run total.
Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford has made 10 starts this season and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 2.17. He has pitched much better on the road, coming in with an ERA of 1.6 compared to 2.61 at home. Crawford’s last outing came on May 18th, where he finished with a no-decision, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. Crawford has allowed a total of three homers this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Boston has been one of the better power-hitting teams in the league this season, as they are 9th in home runs and have a collective isolated power (ISO) of .165.
Rafael Devers has been one of the top power hitters in the league this season, as his 10 homers are 7th best in the league. However, he has struggled a bit of late, going 4/18 in his last five games. Ceddanne Rafaela has also been struggling this season, batting just .198, but he does lead the team with 26 RBIs.
Our prediction for this game is that the Red Sox will pick up a 6-5 win over the Brewers. With the Red Sox being the predicted winner, we recommend taking them on the money line, where the payout is -136.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Kutter Crawford is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Bryse Wilson, who is projected to finish with four. However, Crawford is projected to finish with fewer earned runs than Wilson, and we have him going 3.1 innings compared to Wilson, who we have going 4.2 innings.
Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Red Sox on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Garrett Cooper | Questionable | Shoulder |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Hamstring |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Joe Ross | Out | Back |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
