Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction & Betting Tips 8/9/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Preview

There looks to be a chance for light rain in Boston on Friday, where the Red Sox and Astros will face off at Fenway Park. The game is set to start at 7:10 PM ET, and NESN will be televising this AL matchup. The Red Sox are 61-52, while the Astros are leading the AL West with a record of 59-55.

Boston comes into the game as the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -130 compared to the Astros at +110. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and Ronel Blanco is starting for the Astros, while the Red Sox are going with Tanner Houck. Houston is currently on a two-game winning streak.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Astros are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Red Sox have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Red Sox have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 5-5 against the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Astros have won 6-4 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 8-2 against the runline.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Houston closed out their series vs. the Rangers with a 6-4 win on the road. Leading up to the game, the Astros were the slight favorite at -131 on the money line. It was a good start for the Astros, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning and added another run in the 3rd.

The Rangers tied things up with two runs in the 4th, but the Astros retook the lead right away, scoring three times in the top of the 6th. Houston’s offense added another run in the 8th to close things out. Yordan Alvarez went only 1/3, but it was a home run, and Victor Caratini was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer.

Houston is currently 59-55 overall, putting them in a tie with the Mariners for the AL West lead. The Astros will be on the road today, taking on the Red Sox, and they have an AL West division record of 21-18 this season. The Astros have won two straight games, closing out their series with the Rangers with a win.

At home, the Astros are 32-26 this season, and they are just above .500 at 27-29 on the road. As the underdog, the Astros have gone 14-16 this season, and they are 45-39 when favored. Houston’s overall series record is 20-16-1, and they have dropped two straight series at home.

Despite being a .500 team against the run line overall, the Astros have been a solid bet on the road, going 30-26. They are currently on a four-game run line win streak on the road and have an average run margin of -0.1 away from home.

When the Astros are on the road, the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs. This season, the combined run average in their games is 8.7 runs. Overall, the over/under record in their games is 45-65. The average over/under line in their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 9.5 runs, their over/under record is 2-4. So far, 8 of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, accounting for just 7.0% of their games this season.

Houston is sending Ronel Blanco to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 9-6 and an ERA of 2.98. Blanco has made 21 starts this year and has one complete game shutout. In his last outing, Blanco took the loss, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had given up four earned runs in three straight outings. Blanco has lost three straight starts. The right-hander has a record of 5-2 on the road this year and an ERA of 2.94 compared to 4-4 at home with a 3.36 ERA.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as his 22 homers are the best mark on the team and 11th best in the league. Alvarez is also 2nd on the team with 58 RBIs. Yainer Diaz has also been a big run producer for the Astros, as his 59 RBIs are the best mark on the team. Diaz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/31 in his last eight games.

As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Houston’s offense is also one of the best in the league at avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 3rd fewest strikeouts in the league.

The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Royals with an 8-4 loss. Boston was the +119 underdog on the road going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Red Sox, as they got on the board with a three-run 3rd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Royals scored three times in the bottom of the third.

Boston started Kutter Crawford, and he took the loss, going just 3 2/3 innings, and giving up six earned runs on five hits. The Red Sox’s offense scored their fourth run in the 4th inning but didn’t score again the rest of the game.

Boston will host the Astros with an overall record of 61-52, which has them 3rd in the AL East, 5.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they are 14-13 in AL East matchups. The Red Sox took the series vs. the Royals, winning two of three games.

At home, the Red Sox are 27-28 this year compared to a 34-24 mark on the road. As the favorite, Boston is 32-22 and 29-30 as the underdog. They have won three straight series and have an overall series record of 19-13-5 this year.

When betting the run line on the Red Sox this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road than at home. They are 33-25 vs. the run line on the road, compared to 21-34 at Fenway Park. They have a run differential of +0.9 on the road, compared to -0.3 at home. They are 34-25 vs. the run line as an underdog and 20-34 as a favorite.

The Boston Red Sox are playing at home against the Houston Astros today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The Red Sox have played in games with an average of 9.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 59-48. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 7-8. So far this season, only 10.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher, and their current over streak is at six games.

Tanner Houck will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Rangers, as he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Houck took the loss in that start. Before that outing, he had gone 2-0 in his previous three starts. Houck’s ERA for the season is 3.09, along with a record of 8-8. Opponents are batting .226 off the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 2.35 walks compared to 8.26 strikeouts.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5 runs per contest. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Overall, they are 4th in team batting average (.262) and have the league’s top OPS. Boston also has the best BABIP in the league and are 2nd in slugging percentage.

Rafael Devers has been on fire of late, hitting .381 over his last 10 games with two homers. For the season, he is batting .304 with 25 home runs and 70 RBIs. Jarren Duran is 3rd on the team with 14 homers and is batting .292. Wilyer Abreu has gone 9/27 over his last nine games, driving in nine runs.

At home, we have the Red Sox taking this one over the Astros by a score of 6-5. We are going to be betting on the money line, where the Red Sox are sitting at -130.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Tanner Houck is projected to go five innings and finish with five strikeouts. As for Ronel Blanco, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts as well, and we have him going five innings.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Tips

• Take the Red Sox on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Astros (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Boston Red Sox Injury Report

Houston Astros Injury Report