Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Preview
Casey Mize will start for the Tigers, and he is facing off against Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. The Red Sox have won two straight and they are 30-29, while the Tigers are 28-30 and are 4th in the AL Central. Today’s money line odds have the Red Sox at -143 compared to the Tigers at +122. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.
First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 1:35 PM ET, and BSDET will be televising this one. The Tigers are 2-0 against the Red Sox this season, and the two clubs will also meet on Monday.
Check out BetCoco for Boston Red Sox – Detroit Tigers odds
Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Tigers are 1-4. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Red Sox’s five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Red Sox have a record of 4-6 straight-up, and have gone 2-8 against the runline.
- Looking at the Tigers’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 5-5 vs. the runline.
Boston picked up a 6-3 win over the Tigers in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox had a two-run lead heading into the 9th inning and the Tigers scored two runs in the top of the 9th, but Boston closed things out for the win. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were favored at -112 on the money line.
Cooper Criswell started for the Red Sox and picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued one walk. On the other side, Reese Olson got the start for the Tigers and took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.
Enmanuel Valdez had a big game at the plate for the Red Sox, going 3/4 with two homers and three RBIs. Jarren Duran also had two hits and scored two runs for Boston’s offense. Gio Urshela hit a home run for the Tigers, going 2/4.
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
Detroit is 28-30 overall and 11.0 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Tigers have dropped two straight games, and they trail the Twins by four games for the third spot in the division. So far, they are 10-9 in AL Central matchups this year.
At home, the Tigers are 14-15 this year, and they are also 14-15 on the road. This season, the Tigers are 14-12 as the favorite but just 14-18 as the underdog. Detroit’s overall series record is 8-7-3, and they are 1-2 in this series vs. the Red Sox.
The Tigers are 25-33 against the run line this season, including a 16-13 mark on the road. They are 9-20 against the run line at home. Detroit’s average run margin is dead even at 0.0 runs per game. The Tigers are 19-13 against the run line as an underdog, but just 6-20 as the favorite. Detroit’s average run margin in winning games is +3.5 runs per game, while it’s -3.4 runs per game in losses. The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in their last two road games.
The Detroit Tigers are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs, which is higher than the Tigers’ season average of 8.5 runs per game. Detroit has gone over the total in 32 of their 56 games this season, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9 runs is 4-1. The over has hit in each of their last two games.
Detroit is sending Casey Mize to the mound today vs. the Red Sox, and he comes in with a record of 1-3 and ERA of 4.71. Mize has made 10 starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.43. In his last outing, Mize finished with a no-decision, going 4 1/3 innings vs. the Blue Jays. He gave up three earned runs on eight hits in the outing. Mize has given up at least one homer in three straight starts. The right-hander has an ERA of 10.13 on the road compared to 3.47 at home.
Over the past six games, Matt Vierling has been on fire for the Tigers, going 12/26 with four homers and nine RBIs. Vierling’s hot stretch has also seen him score nine runs. Vierling is currently on a six-game hitting streak, as are Mark Canha and Carson Kelly. Riley Greene has also been swinging a hot bat of late, as he has a three-game hitting streak heading into the game.
As a team, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game and are 15th in home runs. Their team batting average of .234 is 16th in the league, and their on-base percentage of .302 is also 16th. Detroit’s top two home run hitters are Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, who have 10 and eight homers, respectively.
Boston is 30-29 overall, and they are 10.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox have gone just 5-8 in divisional games this year. Coming into today’s game, they have won two straight games, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Red Sox are 13-16 this year and 17-13 on the road. So far, they have been favored in 28 of their games, going 16-12 in those games. As the underdog, Boston is 14-17 this year. The Red Sox’ overall series record is 8-9-1, and they have lost two straight series.
When the Red Sox win, they win big, with an average run margin of 4.3 runs per game. However, they have been outscored by an average of 0.5 runs per game at home this season. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 9-20 against the run line at home this season.
The Red Sox have been playing in high-scoring games lately, as their combined run average is 8.3 runs per game. The over/under record for Boston games this season is 23-31, and when the line is set at 9 runs, they have gone over the total in three of six games. Overall, the over/under line for Red Sox games this season has been set at an average of 8 runs per game.
Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today and is facing the Tigers at home. He has made nine starts this year and has a record of 6-2 with an ERA of 4.18. Bello’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.18. In his last outing, he went five innings and gave up three earned runs on two homers. Bello did come away with the win in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. The right-hander has made two quality starts this year.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Boston comes into the game with a team batting average of .243, which is 11th in the MLB right now. One thing that has helped the Red Sox’s offense is their strong isolated power numbers (.160), which is the 6th best in the league.
Ceddanne Rafaela has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 4/16 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs. Rafaela is batting just .212 for the season but does lead the team with 33 RBIs. Tyler O’Neill has also been a key power source for the Red Sox, as he has 11 homers this season, which is the best mark on the team and 10th best in the league.
With the Red Sox at -143 to pick up a win, we see this as a great opportunity to take them on the money line. At home, we have the Red Sox winning this one by a score of 6-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Brayan Bello finishing with six strikeouts compared to Casey Mize with just four. However, we have Bello’s chances of picking up a win as average, while Mize is the fifth best among starters.
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Tips
- Take the Red Sox on the moneyline
- The Red Sox should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Out | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Vaughn Grissom | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Detroit Tigers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Shelby Miller | Out | Forearm |
| Mark Canha | Probable | Hip |
| Kerry Carpenter | Out | Back |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long | Out | Elbow |
