Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Preview
Thursday’s Tigers vs. Red Sox game has a first pitch of 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -119 compared to the Tigers at -101. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Jack Flaherty will start for the Tigers, and he is facing Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox. Detroit comes in with a record of 27-28, while the Red Sox are 28-28. This game will be televised on NESN.
Check out BetCoco for Boston Red Sox – Detroit Tigers odds
Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Tigers are 1-4. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Red Sox’s five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- Over the last ten games, Tigers has a record of 4-6 when playing as favorites and 4-6 when playing as underdogs.
- In their last ten games, the Red Sox have a record of 5-5 as the favorite and 4-6 as the underdog.
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
The Tigers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Pirates with a 10-2 loss. Detroit was the +120 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Tigers, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Pirates scored three times in the top of the 3rd.
Keider Montero got the start for the Tigers and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on five hits. Matt Vierling had only one hit, but it was a home run, and the Tigers scored their other run in the 2nd.
Detroit is 27-28 overall and trail the Guardians by 9.5 games in the AL Central. So far, they are 10-9 against other teams in the AL Central. The Tigers are starting this series on the road, where they are 13-13 this year. They have gone just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
As the road team, the Tigers have been favored in six games this year, going 4-2 in those games. They have dropped four straight games as the road team, and they are just below .500 at home with a 14-15 record. Detroit’s overall series record is 8-7-3, and they split their most recent series vs. the Pirates.
The Tigers are 24-31 on the run line this season, including a 15-11 mark on the road. They’ve covered the run line in four straight road games, and are 18-11 as the underdog. Detroit’s average run differential is even on the year, and they’ve been outscored by 0.5 runs per game at home.
The Detroit Tigers are on the road against the Boston Red Sox today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. The over/under record for the Tigers this season is 30-23, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 11 times and under 6 times. Their games have gone over the line in 56.4% of their games this season, and they are currently on a streak of three consecutive overs.
Right-hander Jack Flaherty gets the start for the Tigers today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 10 starts this season and has a record of 1-4 with an ERA of 3.84. Flaherty’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.08. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on seven hits. Before that, he had picked up the win and didn’t give up a homer in three straight outings. Flaherty has allowed a homer in three of his last four starts.
Over his last six games, Matt Vierling has been on fire for the Tigers, hitting .429 with four home runs and 10 RBIs. Vierling’s 28 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team, and his seven homers are the 3rd most in the league. Vierling’s recent surge has helped him move his season-long batting average to .289.
Kerry Carpenter has also been a big run producer for the Tigers, as his 29 RBIs are the most on the team. Carpenter is also 2nd on the team with eight homers. Riley Greene is 1st on the team with nine homers but is batting just .232 for the season. Carson Kelly, Mark Canha, and Jake Rogers are all on decent hitting streaks for the Tigers.
The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Orioles with a 6-1 loss. Boston was the +155 underdog on the money line going into this road game. Things started off well for the Red Sox, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Orioles scored five times in the bottom of the second.
Kutter Crawford took the loss for the Red Sox, going six innings and giving up five earned runs on four hits. He also issued two walks and hit a batter. The Red Sox’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd inning and finished with a total of six hits.
Boston is at an even 28-28 overall and is 9.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox are 3rd in the division and have gone just 5-8 in divisional games this year. They kick off their series vs. the Tigers at home, and they are 11-15 at home this year.
On the road, the Red Sox are 17-13 this year. So far, they have dropped two straight series and have an overall series record of 8-9-1. As the underdog, the Red Sox are 14-17 this year and 14-11 when favored.
The Red Sox have a run differential of +0.4 runs per game this season. They are 25-31 against the run line overall, but have been much better on the road, going 18-12. At home, they are just 7-19 vs. the run line. As the favorite, they are 7-18 vs. the run line, while they are 18-13 as the underdog. In games they win, they are outscoring opponents by an average of 4.3 runs per game, while in losses, they are being outscored by an average of 3.5 runs per game.
The Boston Red Sox are playing at home against the Detroit Tigers today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is 8.3 runs, and their overall over/under record is 21-30. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 6-8. So far this season, 71.4% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Brewers, where he took the loss. In that start, he went just 3 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs, three walks, and three home runs. Looking back over his last four starts, Pivetta has allowed at least one homer in each outing. His ERA for the season is 4.20, along with a record of 2-3. Pivetta’s WHIP for the season is 1.07. So far, he has made two home starts and has an ERA of 8.34 in those outings.
Boston’s offense has been good at home so far this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. However, their overall average of 4.4 runs per contest is just 13th in the MLB. The Red Sox’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts this season, but they do have the 6th worst strikeout rate in the league.
Rafael Devers has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/17 in his last five games. This has raised his season average to .284, and he is 2nd on the team with 26 RBIs. Devers is also 9th in the league with 10 homers. Ceddanne Rafaela is the team’s current home run leader, but he is hitting just .206 for the season.
Our prediction for this Tigers vs. Red Sox matchup is to take the Red Sox on the money line at -119. We have the Red Sox winning this one by a final score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also look to the over/under line, with the line currently sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Jack Flaherty finishing with eight strikeouts compared to Nick Pivetta with six. However, our projections have Pivetta going deeper into the game, with Flaherty finishing with a line of 5-6 innings.
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Tips
- Take the Tigers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Red Sox (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Out | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Detroit Tigers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Shelby Miller | Out | Forearm |
| Kerry Carpenter | Out | Back |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long | Out | Elbow |
