Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Orioles and Red Sox square off in an AL East matchup. Wednesday’s matchup is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, and the Red Sox are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -124. The Orioles are +104 on the money line, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.
Baltimore comes into the game with a record of 83-63, while the Red Sox are 73-72 overall. Nick Pivetta will be starting for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Dean Kremer for the Orioles. MASN is carrying this game on TV.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Orioles have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Red Sox have a 0-5 (SU) record, along with a 1-4 record in their last five home contests.
- As the favorite, the Red Sox are 4-6 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- The Orioles have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Baltimore picked up a 5-3 road win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had a two-run lead after the first inning and scored the game’s final two runs in the 7th. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only three runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Orioles were at +117 on the money line.
Albert Suarez pitched well for the Orioles in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued two walks. Suarez got the win in the game, while Seranthony Dominguez got the save. Kutter Crawford had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss.
Cedric Mullins hit the game’s only two home runs while going 2/4 with three RBIs and two runs scored. Adley Rutschman also had a two-hit game for Baltimore. As for the Red Sox, Connor Wong went 2/4 with two doubles.
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Baltimore is 83-63 overall and trail the Yankees by just a half-game in the AL East. The Orioles are 30-18 in division games and have evened up their series with the Red Sox at 1-1. Heading into today’s game, they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Orioles have gone 42-33 this year, and they have been a game over .500 on the road, sitting at 41-30. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 67-47 and 16-16 as the underdog. This year, the Orioles’ overall series record is 24-14-7.
When the Orioles are on the road, they are a good bet to cover the run line, as they are 43-28 against the run line in their 71 road games. They have a run differential of +0.8 runs per game on the road, compared to +0.4 runs per game at home. They have a run differential of +0.6 runs per game overall, and their average run differential in wins is +3.7 runs per game.
The Baltimore Orioles are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 9 runs. The Orioles have a combined run average of 9.2 runs per game this season. Their over/under record for the season is 78-57, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs this season, the Orioles have a record of 15-14-4. So far this season, 13 of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, accounting for 8.9% of their games.
Right-hander Dean Kremer gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.27. Kremer’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.27. In his last outing, Kremer pitched well, going six innings and picking up the win. He didn’t give up a run in the outing and allowed just two hits. Looking back at his last four outings, Kremer has given up three homers in a game twice. He has a total of 15 homers this season.
Not only do the Orioles lead the league in isolated power this season, but they also have the top slugging percentage in the league. As a team, they are averaging 4.9 runs per game (4th) and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 2nd ranked home run hitting team in the league.
Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have been a great 1-2 punch in the lineup, as Henderson is batting .282 for the season and Santander is 3rd in the league with 40 homers. Henderson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 15/40 in his last 10 games with three homers. Cedric Mullins has also been hot of late, hitting .406 in his last 10 games.
Boston is hosting the Orioles today with an overall record of 73-72, which has them 3rd in the AL East. Currently, they trail the Yankees by 10 games in the division. So far, they have gone just 19-19 in divisional matchups. The Red Sox have gone just 3-7 across their last ten games and are 6-8 so far in September.
At home, the Red Sox are 34-40 this year and 39-32 on the road. As the favorite, Boston is 40-33 this year, and they are 33-39 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 22-17-6.
On the run line, the Red Sox are 67-78 this season, including a 27-47 mark at home. As the favorite, they are 27-46 on the run line, while they are 40-32 as the underdog. Their average run differential this season is 0.0 runs per game, and they have a scoring margin of -0.5 runs per game at home.
The Boston Red Sox are playing host to the Baltimore Orioles today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is 9.5 runs, and their over/under record is 74-64. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 8-5-3. Overall, 30.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, with 58.6% of their games having lower lines.
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta finished with a no-decision in his last outing, going six innings and giving up one earned run vs. the White Sox. He only gave up three hits in the outing. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. Pivetta has a record of 5-10 this season and an ERA of 4.38. Opposing batters are hitting .231 off the right-hander this season. Pivetta has made nine quality starts this year and is averaging 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 24 homers.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are a good home run hitting team and are batting .256 as a team, which is the 5th best mark in the league. Boston has been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season, as they are 28th in the league in that category.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill have been a great 1-2 punch in the Red Sox lineup this season, as Devers leads the team with 81 RBIs and O’Neill has gone deep a team-high 29 times. Devers is also 2nd on the team with 28 homers, and his batting average of .281 is the 4th best mark on the team. Over his last six games, O’Neill has four homers and is batting .318. Connor Wong is also swinging a hot bat right now, going 9/24 in his last six games.
Our predicted score for this game is 6-5 in favor of the Orioles, and with them being the underdogs at +104, they are our recommended pick. At +104, we have the Orioles’ chances of winning this game at 48.8%.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Nick Pivetta finishing with six strikeouts compared to Dean Kremer with five. Pivetta is projected to go 4 innings, while Kremer is projected to go 5.2 innings.
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips
- We like the Orioles on the moneyline (+104)
- The Orioles are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luis García | Out | Elbow |
| James Paxton | Out | Calf |
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Martin | Questionable | Illness |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Lucas Sims | Out | Lat |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Elbow |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| David Hamilton | Out | Finger |
| Cam Booser | Out | Elbow |
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Ryan Mountcastle | Out | Wrist |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Ramón Urías | Out | Ankle |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Out | Lat |
| Jacob Webb | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Heston Kjerstad | Out | Head |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
