Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Preview
At 1:35 PM ET, the Braves and Red Sox face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, and the Red Sox are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Braves are 34-24, which has them 2nd in the NL East, while the Red Sox are 30-31.
Wednesday’s money line odds have the Braves at -108 compared to the Red Sox at -110. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and NESN will be televising this one.
Check out BetCoco for Boston Red Sox – Atlanta Braves odds
Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Braves are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Red Sox have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- In their previous ten games, the Braves have recorded a 5-5 record as the favorite, while they have a 4-6 record as the underdog.
- In their last ten games, the Red Sox have a record of 3-7 as the favorite and 5-5 as the underdog.
The most recent game o of this Braves vs Red Sox series came right down to the end, as the Braves held on for a 8-3 win. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -164 on the money line.
Atlanta’s offense got off to a fast start in this one, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Red Sox got on the board with one run in the 3rd and added their final two runs in the 4th.
Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia each had two hits and drove in three runs for the Braves. Dominic Smith hit the game’s only home run and drove in three runs for the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
With an overall record of 34-24, the Braves are seven games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves have won two straight games, and they are 11-8 in divisional games this year. Atlanta took the first game of this series vs. the Red Sox.
At home, the Braves have gone 19-12 this year, and they are 15-12 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 33-21 this year, and they are 1-3 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 12-6-1.
When the Braves are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 16-11. They’ve covered the run line in their last two road games and are 3-1 against the run line as the underdog. Overall, they have a run line record of 30-28, with an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game.
While the Braves have played in 56 games this season, only seven of those games have had an over/under line of 9.5 runs or higher. Their combined run average is 8.4, and their over/under record is 21-35. The average over/under line in their games this season has been 9 runs.
Spencer Schwellenbach will be making his 2nd start of the season for the Braves, and this time he’ll be on the road to take on the Red Sox. In his first start of the year, Schwellenbach took the loss against the Nationals, going 5 innings and giving up 3 earned runs. He did strike out 5 batters but did give up a home run.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power threats this season, as his 17 homers are 3rd in the league and the best mark on the Braves. He is also 2nd in the MLB with 53 RBIs. Ozuna has also been hot of late, going 10/31 in his last eight games, with two homers and six RBIs. Ozuna’s eight-game hitting streak is the longest current streak on the Braves.
Overall, the Braves are 9th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, the Braves are batting .250, which is the 5th best mark in the league.
Boston is 30-31 overall, and they are 4th in the AL East, 12.5 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. The Red Sox have dropped two straight games, and they are 5-8 in AL East matchups this year. Boston lost the series opener vs. the Braves and have an overall series record of 8-9-2 this year.
At home, the Red Sox are 13-18 this year compared to 17-13 on the road. As the home underdog, the Red Sox are 3-6 this year, and they are 14-18 as the underdog overall. Boston’s losing streak as the underdog is at two games, and they are 16-13 as the favorite this year.
When betting the run line on the Red Sox, it’s been a much better idea to take them on the road than at home. Boston’s run line record at Fenway Park is just 9-22, compared to 18-12 on the road. They’ve also been a better bet as the underdog, going 18-14 against the run line in those games. Their overall run line record is 27-34, and they’ve been outscored by an average of 0.3 runs per game this season.
The Boston Red Sox have an over/under record of 25-31 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.4 runs per game. Their games have gone over the line in four straight games, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 1-4. Only 3.3% of their games this season have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs, with their average line for the season being set at 8 runs per game.
Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Braves at home. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 4.08. Pivetta’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.05. In his 35 1/3 innings of work, Pivetta has allowed a total of eight home runs. Looking back at his last outing, Pivetta took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on nine hits. Before that, he had given up at least five earned runs in back-to-back outings.
So far this season, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. However, they have been better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 9th in the league, and have the 8th best slugging percentage in the league. Currently, the Red Sox have the league’s 5th best isolated power figure.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill are tied for the team lead with 11 homers apiece. Devers is batting .282 overall and has gone 10/32 over his last nine games. Ceddanne Rafaela has been the team’s top run producer so far, with 33 RBIs, but he is batting just .206 for the season.
Our predicted score for this Braves and Red Sox matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Braves. Given that they are on the road, you can get the Braves at -108 on the money line, and that is our recommended bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Spencer Schwellenbach finishing with five strikeouts compared to Nick Pivetta with six. However, we have Pivetta going fewer innings and finishing with more earned runs.
If you’re looking for a parlay, you could look to the Braves and then stack their lineup in DFS, as they have a higher projected home run total than the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- We like the Braves on the moneyline (-108)
- The Braves are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Out | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Romy Gonzalez | Out | Hamstring |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Vaughn Grissom | Out | Hamstring |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Wilyer Abreu | Out | Ankle |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Murphy | Questionable | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | Out | Oblique |
