Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Braves and Red Sox square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, and the Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -171. The money line odds for a Red Sox win are at +144, and the over/under line is currently 8 runs.
Max Fried is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox. Atlanta is currently 2nd in the NL East, while the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East. NESN is carrying this game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Boston Red Sox – Atlanta Braves odds
Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Braves have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- On the other side, the Red Sox have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games, the Braves have a 4-6 straight-up record when playing as the favorite, along with a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Red Sox have a 2-8 record against the runline and a 3-7 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Athletics, the Braves closed out the series with a 3-1 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -257. Offensively, the Braves scored their three runs on seven hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Charlie Morton got the start for the Braves, going six innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out six Athletics batters. Dylan Lee got the win out of the bullpen, and Raisel Iglesias picked up the save. The Braves also got a big game from Ozzie Albies, who went 3-4 with a run scored.
Atlanta is seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East as they are 33-24 overall. The Braves are 11-8 against other teams in the NL East, and they have an overall record of 32-21 as the favorite this year.
So far, the Braves have gone 19-12 at home compared to 14-12 on the road. They closed out their series vs. the Athletics with a win and are 4-6 in their last 10 games. This season, the Braves’ overall series record is 12-6-1.
When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. That’s helped them to a 29-28 run line record on the season. They’ve been particularly good on the road, where their run line record is 15-11, compared to 14-17 at home. As the favorite, they’re 26-27 against the run line, while as the underdog, they’re 3-1.
When the Braves hit the road to take on the Red Sox, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Atlanta’s games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 20-35. The average O/U line in their games is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their O/U record is 3-2. In 73.7% of their games this season, the O/U line has been set higher than 8 runs.
Max Fried has been pitching well for the Braves this season, coming into the game with a record of 5-2 and an ERA of 2.97. He has made 11 starts and has a WHIP of 1.05. Fried has pitched two complete games and has one shutout this year. In his last outing, he didn’t give up a run, going eight innings against the Nationals. Fried has won three straight starts and six of his last seven. The left-hander has been much better on the road, with a record of 3-1 and an ERA of 7.64 compared to 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA at home.
Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late, going 10/35 in his last nine games with two homers and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .313 with 17 homers and 53 RBIs, which is 2nd in the league. Ozuna also comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak. Matt Olson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/34 in his last nine games, including two homers and seven RBIs.
Overall, the Braves are 7th in batting average and are averaging 4.5 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are 11th in home runs and have the league’s top offense in terms of RBIs.
The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Tigers with an 8-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Tigers scored four runs in the top of the 10th. Boston was the -158 favorite at home going into the game.
Brayan Bello put together a good start for the Red Sox, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just four hits and one earned run. He also issued three walks and struck out five. However, the Red Sox’s bullpen couldnjson’t close things out, and Cam Booser took the loss out of the bullpen. The Red Sox also wasted a big game from Rafael Devers, who homered in the 1st inning, going 2/4.
Boston is at an even 30-30 overall as they get set to host the Braves today. The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East and trail the Yankees by 11.5 games for the division lead. So far, they are just 5-8 in AL East games this year.
The Red Sox have an overall series record of 8-9-2 this year, and they split their most recent series vs. the Tigers. At home, the Red Sox are 13-17 compared to 17-13 on the road. As the underdog, Boston is 14-17 this year and 16-13 when favored.
When the Red Sox are favored, they have been a poor bet on the run line, going just 9-20. However, when they are the underdog, they are a solid 18-13 on the run line. Their average run differential in games they win is +4.3, while in losses it is -3.5.
When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over has hit in 56.7% of their games this season. The over/under line for today’s game against the Atlanta Braves is set at 8 runs, which is right around their season average. Boston’s games have averaged a combined 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 24-31 overall. Their games have gone over the total in three straight contests.
Right-hander Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Braves at home. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 2-4 with a 3.29 ERA. Crawford’s WHIP for the season is 1.19, and opponents are batting .228 off him this year. In his 12 appearances, Crawford has turned in five quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Crawford took the loss vs. the Orioles, giving up five earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had given up just one earned run in two straight outings.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 11th in the league, and are 9th in home runs. Boston has done a good job of putting the ball in play this season, as their strikeout numbers are the 25th worst in the league.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill are tied for the team lead with 11 home runs this season, and Devers is also near the top of the league in RBIs, with 29. Devers has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/26 in his last seven games. Ceddanne Rafaela has also hit two homers in his last seven games, but is batting just .217 over that stretch.
Our pick for today’s Braves vs. Red Sox matchup is to take the Red Sox on the money line at +144. With the Red Sox pulling out a 5-4 win, there’s a little bit of value in taking them on the money line, rather than on the run line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Kutter Crawford is projected to finish with four strikeouts, which is better than Max Fried, who we have finishing with five. However, we like the Red Sox to pick up the win and would recommend loading up on the Red Sox lineup in your DFS lineups.
Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips
- We like the Red Sox on the moneyline (+144)
- On the run line we like Red Sox (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Out | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Romy Gonzalez | Out | Hamstring |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Vaughn Grissom | Out | Hamstring |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Wilyer Abreu | Questionable | Ankle |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | Out | Oblique |
