Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview
From Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, the Orioles and Rays will face off in an AL East matchup. This one gets started at 4:05 PM ET, and MASN will be televising it. The Orioles are the heavy favorite on the money line at -185, while the Rays are sitting at +155. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Baltimore comes into the game with a record of 82-60, while the Rays are 69-72 overall. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, while the Orioles are going with Zach Eflin. Tampa Bay is currently on a two-game losing streak and is 4th in the AL East.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Rays in their last five road games. They have also gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Orioles’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Orioles have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 6-4 against the runline.
- Looking at the Rays’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 3-7 straight-up and 6-4 vs. the runline.
Baltimore picked up a 2-0 win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had just two more hits than the Rays and struck out 12 times, but still picked up a win thanks to a good outing from Dean Kremer, who went six innings and didn’t give up a run.
Shane Baz started for the Rays and gave up just one run in six innings of work. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued three walks. Tampa Bay’s bullpen didn’t give up a run in this game, as the only two runs came against Baz.
Gunnar Henderson was the difference for the Orioles, as he homered, scored twice, and finished with two RBIs. Baltimore’s other run came on an RBI single from Austin Hays.
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
The Rays are 69-72 overall this season, and they trail the Orioles by 12.5 games in the AL East. Currently, they are 4th in the division and have gone 17-24 against other AL East teams. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight games, and they are 4-6 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Rays are 37-38 this year, and they are just above .500 at 32-34 on the road. As the underdog, Tampa Bay is 34-42 this year, and they are 35-30 when favored. The Rays’ overall series record is 21-17-6, and they are currently down 0-1 in this series vs. the Orioles.
The Rays have been a profitable team against the run line this season, with a record of 71-70. They have been particularly good on the road, where they are 37-29 against the run line. However, they have failed to cover the run line in their last two road games. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 47-29 against the run line in those games.
When the Tampa Bay Rays are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Rays have a combined run average of 8.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 63-70. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 16-18-1. The over/under line has been set at 8 runs for 46 of their games this season, which is 32.6% of their games.
Ryan Pepiot will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up three earned runs in just three innings of work. In that outing vs. the Padres, he gave up four hits, four walks, and one home run. Looking back over his last three outings, Pepiot has finished with a no-decision in two of them and has allowed at least one homer in each outing. The right-hander has a record of 7-6 and an ERA of 3.76. Opponents are batting .204 off Pepiot this season. He has made eight quality starts and is averaging 9.53 strikeouts per nine innings.
For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team batting average. However, they do come into the game with a collective batting average of .230, which is 19th in the league. As a team, they are striking out 9 times per contest, which is 26th in the league.
Yandy Diaz comes into the game with a team-leading 62 RBIs and is batting .275 for the season. He has also gone deep 13 times. Christopher Morel is batting just .197 for the season but leads the team with 21 homers. Morel is also on a three-game hitting streak. Over his last five games, Jonny DeLuca is batting .316 with one home run.
With an overall record of 82-60, the Orioles lead the AL East by a half-game over the Yankees. The Orioles have gone 29-15 against other teams in the AL East. Baltimore took the first game of their series vs. the Rays and have an overall series record of 24-13-7 this year.
At home, the Orioles are 42-31 this season, and they are 40-29 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 67-45 this year. As the home favorite, the Orioles are 38-28. Looking at their overall record, the Orioles have gone 15-15 as the underdog.
The Orioles have been a solid run line bet this season, going 78-64 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 42-27. They are just under .500 at home against the run line at 36-37. They have been the favorite in most games, going 57-55 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8, while it is -3.5 in losing games.
The Baltimore Orioles are hosting the Tampa Bay Rays today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Orioles have played in games with an average of 9.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 76-55. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 17-7-3. Overall, 61.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at more than 8 runs.
Zach Eflin has been pitching well for the Orioles, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced the Rockies on September 1st and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking back at his last four outings, he has only given up more than one earned run once. Eflin’s ERA for the season is 3.60, along with a record of 10-7. Opponents are batting .251 off Eflin this year. Out of his 24 starts, Eflin has 11 quality starts and is averaging 7.65 strikeouts per nine innings.
Not only do the Orioles lead the league in slugging percentage, but they also have the best isolated power (ISO) in the league. As a team, they are 2nd in home runs, and they are averaging 5 runs per game, which is 3rd in the league. Baltimore’s team batting average is .252, which is 7th in the league.
Gunnar Henderson has been on a tear of late for the Orioles, hitting .435 with three homers over his last six games. For the season, he is batting .282 with 36 homers and 85 RBIs. Anthony Santander has also been a big power threat for the Orioles, as he is 3rd in the league with 39 homers and has driven in 91 runs.
Our prediction for this one is that the Orioles will pick up a 6-4 win over the Rays. However, we actually like the over in this one, as the line is sitting at 8 runs, and we have this one finishing with 10 total runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Zach Eflin actually has the eighth-best odds of picking up a win among starters today, and we have him finishing with six strikeouts. As for Ryan Pepiot, we have him finishing with just four K’s and actually have him with the third-worst strikeout projection among starters.
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- The Orioles should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Ryan Mountcastle | Out | Wrist |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Ramón Urías | Out | Ankle |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Out | Lat |
| Jacob Webb | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Heston Kjerstad | Out | Head |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | Questionable | Finger |
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Colin Poche | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Richie Palacios | Out | Knee |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
| Pete Fairbanks | Out | Lat |
