Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview
At 4:05 PM ET, the Rays and Orioles face off in an AL East matchup. This one is being played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and the Orioles are favored on the money line (-164). The money line odds have the Rays at +139, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
Tampa Bay will be starting Taj Bradley, while the Orioles are sending Kyle Bradish to the mound. Baltimore comes in with a record of 36-19 and are 2nd in the AL East, while the Rays are 5th in the division with an overall record of 28-30.
Check out BetCoco for Baltimore Orioles – Tampa Bay Rays odds
Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- The Rays are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Orioles have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Orioles have a straight-up record of 7-3, while going 7-3 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Rays have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
Baltimore picked up a 3-1 win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had a three-run 6th inning, and the Rays scored their only run in the 2nd. Heading into the game, the Orioles were favored at -147 on the money line.
Albert Suarez got the start for the Orioles, going five innings and giving up just one run. He finished with five strikeouts but issued two walks. Cionel Perez got the win out of the bullpen, and Craig Kimbrel got the save.
Jorge Mateo, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle each had two hits and an RBI for the Orioles’ offense. Mateo and Santander scored the team’s other two runs. Tampa Bay’s top hitter was Yandy Diaz, who went 2/4.
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
The Rays are 28-30 overall and trail the Yankees by 11.5 games in the AL East. Currently, they are in 5th place in the division and are 9-12 against other AL East teams. Tampa Bay lost the first game of this series vs. the Orioles and have gone just 3-7 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Rays are 17-18 this year and are 11-12 on the road. As the underdog, the Rays are 10-11 this year, and they are 18-19 when favored. So far, their longest losing streak as the underdog is four games. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 8-8-2, and they have won two straight series on the road.
When it comes to the run line, the Rays have been a tough team to figure out. They are 23-35 on the run line this season, but they have been better on the road, going 12-11. They have been a slight underdog in most games, and they are 12-9 against the run line in those games. Overall, the Rays have a run differential of -0.9 runs per game, but that number jumps to -3.8 in their losses.
When the Tampa Bay Rays are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 29-28. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 9-7. The majority of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher, with 26 out of 58 games (44.8%) having lines set above 8 runs.
Getting the start today for the Rays is Taj Bradley, who is on the road to take on the Orioles. Bradley has a 1-1 record through his first 3 starts of the season, and he is coming off of a no-decision in his last outing, where he went 5 innings and struck out 6 batters while allowing just 1 hit.
Isaac Paredes has been a bright spot for the Rays so far this season, as he comes into today’s game with a batting average of .294 and 10 home runs, which is 9th in the league. Paredes has also been swinging a hot bat of late, as he is on a three-game hitting streak. Randy Arozarena is 2nd on the team with eight homers but is batting just .158 for the season.
As a team, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 26th in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in slugging percentage and OPS. However, they do come into the game with a league-average walk rate and have been tough to strike out this season.
Baltimore is 36-19 overall and trails the Yankees by two games for the AL East lead. The Orioles have gone 10-3 in AL East games this year, and they have won two straight games overall. Their two-game winning streak has come as the favorite, and they are 29-17 as the favorite this year.
At home, the Orioles are 20-11 this year and have gone 16-8 on the road. Baltimore has won two straight series and has an overall series record of 12-4-2 this year.
When the Orioles win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. They are 31-24 against the run line this season, including a 17-14 mark at home. Their run line record as the favorite is 24-22, and they have covered the run line in two straight games and are 2-0 against the run line in those games.
The Orioles have been involved in high-scoring games this season, as their combined run average is 8.7 runs per game. Their over/under record is 27-21, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 7-3-2. Overall, 56.4% of their games have had higher lines than 8 runs.
Kyle Bradish will be making his first start of the season at home, as he has started his first two outings on the road. He picked up a win in his last start, going 7 innings and striking out 11 batters. Bradish has yet to allow a home run this season.
Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been two of the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Rutschman’s 10 homers ranking 2nd on the team and Henderson’s 18 long balls leading the club and ranking 2nd in the league. Rutschman comes into the game with a batting average of .296, while Henderson is batting .259. Ryan Mountcastle has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/31 in his last eight games.
As a team, the Orioles are 4th in the league in runs scored at 5 per game. So far, they have been one of the league’s best home run-hitting teams and also have the league’s top isolated power figure. Baltimore comes into the game with a team batting average of .245, which is 8th in the MLB.
Our prediction for this Orioles vs. Rays matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8 runs. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Orioles, meaning there is some value in taking the Orioles straight up, but we see the over as the safer bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Kyle Bradish finishing with six strikeouts compared to Taj Bradley with five. If you’re looking to bet on the Orioles vs. Rays matchup, you could look to take Bradish to finish with more strikeouts, or you could look to the Orioles to finish with more home runs, as our projections have them hitting more than the Rays.
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Rays (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | Out | Triceps |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Jordan Westburg | Questionable | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
Tampa Bay Rays Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | Out | Back |
| Josh Lowe | Out | Side |
| Wander Franco | Out | Personal |
| Drew Rasmussen | Out | Arm |
| Taylor Walls | Out | Hip |
| Jeffrey Springs | Out | Elbow |
| Colin Poche | Out | Back |
| Shane McClanahan | Out | Elbow |
| Jacob Waguespack | Out | Shoulder |
