Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction & Betting Tips 7/14/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Preview

Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees on Sunday, as they look to extend their two-game winning streak. The Orioles, who are 1st in the AL East, will be looking to end a five-game losing streak. They are starting Dean Kremer.

Sunday’s forecast in Baltimore calls for scattered clouds and temperatures in the low 80s. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 11:35 AM ET. The over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and the Yankees are favored on the money line (-103).

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Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Yankees have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Orioles have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
• In their previous ten games, the Yankees have recorded a 3-7 record as the favorite, while they have a 5-5 record as the underdog.
• 3-7 is the record of the Orioles as the favorite, while their record as the underdog stands at 4-6.

It was all New York in the last game of this series, as the Yankees took down the Orioles by a score of 6-1. The Yankees offense only had three more hits than the Orioles and struck out 12 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +119 on the money line.

Baltimore’s only run came in the 4th inning. As for the Yankees, they scored four of their six runs in the 1st inning and added two insurance runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Yankees had the higher scoring offense, averaging 4.8 runs per game compared to the Orioles’ 4.2.

Luis Gil pitched well for the Yankees in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued a season-high five walks. Grayson Rodriguez struggled on the mound for the Orioles, giving up six runs in five innings of work.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

The Yankees are 58-39 overall this season, and they are 2-0 in the series vs. the Orioles heading into today’s game. New York is in 2nd place in the AL East, and they are currently tied with the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 16-18 in divisional games.

At home, the Yankees have gone 25-19 this year, and they have been really good on the road, putting together a mark of 33-20. As the favorite, the Yankees are 44-33 this year, and they are 14-6 when listed as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 17-9-3, and they have dropped three straight series.

When it comes to betting the run line on the Yankees, it’s been a profitable endeavor on the road this season. New York is 31-22 against the run line away from home, and they’ve covered in two straight games. Their average run margin on the road is +1.4 runs per game, and their overall run line record is 52-45.

Today’s over/under line of 9.5 runs is higher than the Yankees’ average line of 8 runs, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 49-44, and when the line is set at 9.5 runs, they are 4-3. Over the season, only 2.1% of their games have had higher lines than today’s, and their current under streak is at 2 games.

Carlos Rodón gets the start for the Yankees today as he faces the Orioles on the road. He has made 19 starts this year and has a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 4.63. Rodón’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.26. Out of his 19 starts, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 9.17 strikeouts per nine innings. Rodón has had a rough stretch, as he has taken the loss in each of his last four outings. Most recently, he gave up four earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Rays. The left-hander has given up at least two homers in three of his last four outings.

Heading into today’s game, the Yankees are the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging five runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. New York’s offense is also 2nd in home runs and have the league’s top two home run hitters in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge is batting .308 for the season and has gone 2/5 with two homers over his past five games. Soto is also swinging a hot bat right now, going 8/21 in his last five games.

Not only do the Yankees lead the league in home runs, but they are also the top team in terms of drawing walks. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 8th in the league, and have a collective on-base percentage of .329, which is 4th in the MLB.

The Orioles are 57-38 overall and lead the AL East by a half-game over the Yankees. Currently, they are on a five-game losing streak, which includes dropping the first two games of this series vs. the Yankees. Baltimore’s overall series record is 19-7-3 this season.

At home, the Orioles are 29-22 this season, and they are 28-16 on the road. As the favorite, the Orioles have gone 46-31 and 11-7 as the underdog. Baltimore has dropped six straight games at home, and they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games overall.

When the Orioles are the underdog, they are a strong bet against the run line. They are 13-5 in those games, and their average run margin in losing games is -3.6. Their run line record as the favorite is 38-39.

The Baltimore Orioles have played to the over in 47 of their 85 games this season, but their games have averaged just 9.0 runs per game, and their games have averaged just 8 runs per game. They have played to the over in all three games with an over/under line of 9.5 runs, but they have played to the under in their last four games overall.

Through 11 starts, Dean Kremer has a record of 4-5 and an ERA of 4.42. This year, he has a WHIP of 1.19 and has turned in three quality starts. Kremer’s ERA at home is 7.43, and he has gone 1-3 at home this year. In comparison, he is 3-2 on the road with a 3.23 ERA. Kremer’s most recent outing came vs. the Cubs, where he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

So far this season, the Orioles have been the best home run hitting team in the league, and they are also 1st in slugging percentage and isolated power. Overall, they are 5th in the league in runs per game at 4.9. Baltimore’s team batting average of .253 is 6th in the league, and they have the 2nd best on-base percentage in the league. One area they have struggled in is drawing walks, as they are 25th in the league in that category.

Gunnar Henderson has been the Orioles’ top hitter this season, batting .288 with a team-leading 27 home runs and 61 RBIs. He has also gone 12/42 in his last 10 games, including one home run. Anthony Santander is 2nd on the team with 23 homers, but he is batting just .234 this season.

Getting the Orioles at -115 on the money line is a great value pick for today’s Yankees vs. Orioles matchup. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Orioles, giving us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line sitting at 9.5 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Dean Kremer is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is 14th among starters. As for Carlos Rodón, he is projected to finish with eight K’s, which is fourth best among starters. However, we still have Rodón finishing with a loss.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Tips

• Take the Yankees on the moneyline
• The Orioles are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Baltimore Orioles Injury Report

New York Yankees Injury Report