Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction & Betting Tips 7/12/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Preview

From Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, we have the Orioles and Yankees facing off in an AL East matchup. The Orioles are the slight money line underdog (+109), while the Yankees have a line of -129. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and moderate rain is expected in Baltimore on Friday.

First pitch for this one is set for 7:05 PM ET, and YES will be televising the game. New York is 2nd in the AL East with a record of 56-39, while the Orioles are on a 3-game losing streak and are 1st in the division at 57-36.

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Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats

• The Yankees are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
• The Orioles, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 2-3 record.
• The Yankees have a straight-up record of 3-7 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 2-8.
• When playing as the underdog, the Orioles have a 2-8 record against the runline and a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

The Yankees will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rays with a 5-4 loss. New York was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind early, as the Rays scored two runs in the first inning. The Yankees could only score one run in the 2nd inning and added another run in the 5th to tie things up. However, the Rays scored another three runs in the 5th to pick up the win.

Nestor Cortes got the start for the Yankees and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs on seven hits. The Yankees’s offense was carried by Juan Soto, who went 2/3 with a homer and two RBIs.

The Yankees come into today’s road matchup vs. the Orioles with an overall record of 56-39, which has them 2nd in the AL East. Currently, they are two games behind the Orioles for the division lead. New York closed out their series vs. the Rays with a win but lost the series, dropping two of three games. So far, they are 14-18 in AL East matchups.

At home, the Yankees have gone 25-19 this season, and they have been really good on the road, going 31-20. As the favorite, the Yankees are 43-33 this year and 13-6 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Yankees are 17-9-3 and have dropped three straight series.

When the Yankees are the underdog, they have been a good bet to cover the run line this season, going 15-4. Their average run differential in wins is +4.1, while their average run differential in losses is -3.3. Overall, they are 50-45 against the run line this season, including a 29-22 mark on the road.

Today’s over/under line of 9 runs for the New York Yankees’ game against the Baltimore Orioles is right in line with their season average of 8.9 runs per game. The Yankees have had a combined over/under record of 49-42 this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 9 runs, their over/under record is 2-7-2. Only 9.5% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 9 runs.

Gerrit Cole and the Yankees are on the road to take on the Orioles. Cole has started 3 games so far this season, and he has a win, a loss, and a no-decision. His last start was a no-decision against the Red Sox, where he went 4 1/3 innings and gave up 4 runs on 7 hits.

So far this season, the Yankees are 2nd in the league in runs per game at 5 runs per contest. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per game. As a team, they are also 2nd in home runs and have the league’s top two home run hitters in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge and Soto are also 1st and 2nd in the league in RBIs, respectively.

Recently, Ben Rice has struggled a bit, hitting just .243 over his last 10 games. However, he does have five homers over that stretch. Giancarlo Stanton is currently on a 10-game hitting streak for the Yankees, while Gleyber Torres has hits in four straight games.

The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with an 8-0 loss. Baltimore was the slight favorite at -135 on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Cubs scored three times in the 3rd.

Offensively, the Orioles only had five fewer hits than the Cubs but didn’t score a run. Their only real chance to score came in the 3rd inning, and they left the bases loaded. Albert Suarez got the start for the Orioles and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up four earned runs.

With an overall record of 57-36, the Orioles lead the AL East by two games over the Yankees. Baltimore will host the Yankees today having dropped three straight games, and this came after losing the final game of their series vs. the White Sox. So far, they have been really good vs. other AL East teams, going 19-7.

At home, the Orioles are 29-20 this year and have gone 28-16 on the road. As the favorite, the Orioles have gone 46-30 and are 11-6 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Orioles have gone 19-7-3 and have won two straight series on the road.

When the Orioles are at home, they are 24-25 against the run line. Their average run margin in those games is 0.7 runs per game. They have lost their last six home games against the run line. As the favorite, they are 38-38 against the run line. As the underdog, they are 13-4.

The Orioles have been a strong over team this season, with a 47-36 over/under record. Their games have had an average combined run total of 9.1 runs per game, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, their games have gone over 8 times, under 9 times, and pushed 3 times. Their games have had an over/under line of 9 runs or higher just 3 times this season, accounting for just 3.2% of their games.

The Orioles are sending Cade Povich to the mound today vs. the Yankees, and he comes into the game with a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 6.51. Povich’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.48. In his six starts, he has turned in one quality start and is averaging 5.86 strikeouts per nine innings. Povich’s most recent outing was rough, as he gave up eight earned runs in just one inning of work vs. the Athletics. Before that, he had gone 5 2/3 innings in back-to-back starts. Povich has allowed at least one homer in three straight outings.

As a team, the Orioles are the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5 runs per game. They are also the top home run-hitting team in the league and have the league’s best slugging percentage and OPS. Baltimore is batting .254 as a team, which is the 5th best mark in the league. Their team ISO of .201 is also the best in the MLB.

Over his last 10 games, Gunnar Henderson has gone 11/42 with one home run. For the season, he is batting .288 and leads the team with 61 RBIs. Jordan Westburg is also one of the Orioles’ top power threats, as he comes into the game on a nine-game hitting streak and has two homers in his last 10 games.

With the Orioles at home and a money line payout of +109, that is the direction we recommend going in this one. Our predicted score is 6-5 in favor of the Orioles, and with the payout, we like the value of the Orioles to pick up a win.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Gerrit Cole is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, and we have him finishing with a line of 5 hits and three earned runs. As for Cade Povich, his strikeout projection is five, and we have him going six innings.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Tips

• We like the Orioles on the moneyline (+109)
• On the run line we like Orioles (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Baltimore Orioles Injury Report

New York Yankees Injury Report