Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Betting Tips 8/15/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Preview

The forecast looks good for Thursday’s Red Sox vs. Orioles matchup, with the temperature sitting in the mid to upper 80s under clear skies. First pitch is set for 6:35 PM ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and the Orioles are favored on the money line (-144).

Thursday’s money line odds have the Red Sox at +122, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs. This AL East matchup will feature Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox and Zach Eflin for the Orioles. Boston is 3rd in the AL East, while the Orioles are 2nd with a record of 71-50.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats

• The Red Sox are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Orioles have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
• Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Orioles have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
• The Red Sox have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Boston is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 9-7 loss to the Rangers, Tanner Houck was excellent on the mound, allowing just two runs while pitching into the 6th inning. They also got a big offensive performance from Wilyer Abreu, going 1/5 with a homer and three RBIs.

Zack Kelly took the loss out of the bullpen for the Red Sox, as Boston allowed three runs in the top of the 10th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Red Sox were favored at -137 at home.

Boston is 7.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East, and they are 63-56 overall. The Red Sox will be on the road today vs. the Orioles, and they are 14-13 in AL East games. Boston is coming off a series win over the Rangers and have an overall series record of 20-13-5 this year.

At home, the Red Sox have gone 29-32 compared to 34-24 on the road. As the road underdog, the Red Sox have gone 20-19 this season. As the underdog overall, Boston is 29-31 and 34-25 as the favorite. Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox have dropped two straight games as the underdog.

Despite an overall run line record of 55-64, the Red Sox have been a solid bet on the run line on the road this season, going 33-25. They have a run line record of 22-39 at home, where they have a scoring margin of -0.5 runs per game. Their overall run line record as the underdog is 34-26, compared to 21-38 as the favorite.

After a two-game over streak, the Red Sox will be on the road to face the Orioles with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. Boston has a combined run average of 9.8 runs per game this season and has gone over the total in 63 of their 112 games. The average over/under line for their games this season has been 9 runs per game.

Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles on the road. This year, he has made 18 starts and has a record of 5-7 with an ERA of 4.44. Pivetta’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those outings was particularly rough, as he gave up seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Pivetta’s ERA at home is 6.22, compared to 5.18 on the road.

So far this season, the Red Sox offense has been one of the best in the league, as they are 4th in runs per game and have the 6th most home runs in the league. As a team, they are batting .261, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB. Boston has been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest.

Heading into today’s game, both Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran have been swinging the bat well. Devers leads the team with a .299 batting average and his 72 RBIs are also the best on the team. He has also gone deep 25 times, which is 11th best in the league. Duran is batting .290 for the season and has 14 homers.

The Orioles’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 4-1 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the top of the first, the Orioles responded with two runs of their own. Baltimore went on to add another two runs in the 7th inning.

Dean Kremer put together a good start for the Orioles, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Baltimore’s bullpen closed things out with Seranthony Dominguez picking up the save.

Baltimore is 71-50 overall and is 2nd in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by just a half-game. So far, they have gone 26-13 in AL East matchups. The Orioles kick off their series vs. the Red Sox today, and Boston is 7.5 games behind the Yankees in the division.

At home, the Orioles are 35-26 this year while going 36-24 on the road. Baltimore has been good as the favorite this season, putting up a mark of 59-39. As the underdog, the Orioles are 12-11 this year. Their overall series record is 22-11-5, and they split their most recent series with the Nationals.

The Orioles have been a solid run line bet this season, going 66-55 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, going 36-24 against the run line. They have also been a good bet as the underdog, going 16-7 against the run line in those games.

When the Baltimore Orioles play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Orioles have played in 67 games with over/under lines this season, and their combined run average is 9.3 runs per game. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 19-14. Overall, 30.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Zach Eflin has been pitching well for the Orioles, as he has won each of his last three starts. Most recently, he faced the Rays and picked up the win, going seven innings and not giving up a run. Looking at his overall numbers, Eflin has made 22 starts and has a record of 8-7. His ERA for the season is 3.83, along with a WHIP of 1.15. Opponents are batting .257 off Eflin this year. The right-hander has made nine quality starts and is averaging 7.24 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, Eflin has allowed 16 homers.

So far this season, the Orioles have been the best home run hitting team in the league, and they are also 3rd in the league in runs scored, averaging 5 runs per game. Not only are they the top home run hitting team in the league, but they also have the best team slugging percentage and isolated power numbers. As a team, they are batting .256, which is the 4th best mark in the league.

Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Santander’s 36 homers leading the team and Henderson’s 30 homers being the 2nd most on the team. Henderson comes into the game with a batting average of .288, while Santander is hitting just .242. However, Santander has four homers in his last 10 games, while Henderson has two. Henderson has gone 13/41 in his last 10 games.

Our prediction for today’s Red Sox vs. Orioles game is to take the Orioles on the money line, with the payout being -144. We have the Orioles winning this one by a final score of 6-5.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Zach Eflin finishing with five strikeouts, which would have him as the ninth best starter in terms of K’s. As for Nick Pivetta, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him as the fourth best starter in terms of strikeouts.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips

• Take the Orioles on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Red Sox (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Baltimore Orioles Injury Report

Boston Red Sox Injury Report