Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Betting Tips 5/29/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Preview

The Orioles will be looking to move into first place in the AL East, as they are just a half-game back of the Red Sox, who are 3rd in the division. However, Baltimore is the heavy money line favorite for Wednesday’s matchup, sitting at -187 compared to the Red Sox at +156. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 6:35 PM ET, and MASN will be carrying the TV rights for this AL matchup. Kutter Crawford is starting for the Red Sox, and the Orioles have Corbin Burnes on the mound.

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Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Red Sox are 4-1. This includes going 4-1 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Orioles have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
• As the favorite, the Orioles are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 6-4 vs. the runline.
• The Red Sox have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

It was all Boston in the last game of this series, as the Red Sox took down the Orioles by a score of 8-3. The Red Sox offense only had two more hits than the Orioles and struck out 11 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +148 on the money line.

Baltimore got off to a good start in this one, scoring three runs in the first inning. As for the Red Sox, they didn’t get on the board until the 2nd and didn’t take the lead until the 8th. Heading into the 9th, the Red Sox had just a 3-2 lead but broke the game open with five runs.

Brayan Bello only went five innings for the Red Sox but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. On the other side, Grayson Rodriguez struggled on the mound for the Orioles, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Boston is 8.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East, and they are 28-27 overall. The Red Sox are 5-7 against other teams in the AL East. So far, they are 11-15 at home compared to 17-12 on the road. The Red Sox have an even series record of 8-8-1 this year.

As the road underdog, the Red Sox are 11-11 this year, and they are 14-11 as the favorite overall. Boston has gone 6-4 across their last ten games, and they are currently tied with the Orioles in their series.

When the Red Sox are on the road, they have been a good bet on the run line, going 18-11. Boston’s average run differential is +0.5 runs per game, but that number jumps to +1.6 runs per game when they are away from Fenway Park. The Red Sox have been a good run line bet as the underdog, going 18-12, but as the favorite, they are just 7-18 on the run line.

Today’s game between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles has an over/under line of 7.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.3 runs per game. The Red Sox have an over/under record of 21-30 on the season, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they are 6-8. Overall, 40 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 72.7% of their games. The over has hit in their last two games.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles on the road. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 2.89. Crawford’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his 11 appearances, he has turned in five quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Crawford took the loss vs. the Brewers, giving up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up a home run. Opponents are batting .231 vs. Crawford this season.

So far this season, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 12th in the MLB. They have been a better offense on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .244, which is 10th in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in both on-base percentage and slugging. Boston has been one of the better home run hitting teams in the league, as their 58 homers is 11th in the MLB.

Rafaela Ceddanne comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak and is the Red Sox’s current leader in RBIs, with 28. He is batting just .211 this season, but does have five homers. Tyler O’Neill has also been a good power source for the Red Sox, as his 11 homers is the best mark on the team and 7th in the league. O’Neill is batting just .236 this season.

The Orioles are 34-19 overall and trail the Yankees by 1.5 games in the AL East. So far, they have gone 8-3 in divisional matchups. Baltimore is 18-11 at home compared to 16-8 on the road. The Orioles have been tough to beat as the favorite this year, going 27-17, and they are 7-2 as the underdog.

At home, the Orioles have gone 17-10 as the favorite. Baltimore has an overall series record of 11-4-2 this season, and they are 1-1 in their current series vs. the Red Sox. Heading into today’s game, the Orioles are 6-4 over their last 10 contests.

So far this season, the Orioles have been a good bet against the run line, going 29-24. They have been especially good on the road, going 14-10, and as the underdog, where they are 7-2. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, while in losing games it is -3.1.

The Orioles are at home today against the Red Sox, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. Baltimore’s games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 27-20. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 2-3. Overall, 79.2% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at two games.

Right-hander Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Red Sox at home. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Burnes has turned in eight quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up three earned runs in six innings of work. In that outing, he finished with a no-decision. Burnes has been solid at home, with a 2.04 ERA compared to 3.70 on the road. Opponents are batting .202 off Burnes this year.

Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, as Henderson’s 17 homers are 2nd in the league and Rutschman’s 10 home runs are 8th in the MLB. Rutschman is also batting .299 for the season and is 1st on the team with 37 RBIs. However, he has just one home run in his last eight games, going 8/30 in that stretch. Henderson has also struggled of late, hitting just .179 in his last eight games.

One of the Orioles’ biggest strengths has been their team ISO of .191, which is the best in the league. As a team, they are 2nd in home runs and are 3rd in runs scored. Overall, they are batting .244 and averaging 5 runs per game. Baltimore’s offense has been good at home and on the road, both averaging 5 runs per contest.

Our prediction for the Red Sox vs. Orioles game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs. We have the Orioles winning this game by a final score of 6-5, giving us a little bit of wiggle room if you wanted to take the money line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Corbin Burnes finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for fourth in the league today. As for Kutter Crawford, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which has him at 20th among starters.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips

• Take the Orioles on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Red Sox (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Baltimore Orioles Injury Report

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