Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Preview
From Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, we have the Red Sox and Orioles facing off in an AL East matchup. The Orioles are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -164, while the Red Sox are at +140. Today’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the forecasted temperature is 81 degrees with clear skies.
First pitch for this one is set for 6:35 PM ET, and NESN will be televising it. Boston is 3rd in the AL East with a record of 27-27, while the Orioles are 2nd in the division and have won five straight. Brayan Bello is starting for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Grayson Rodriguez.
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Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- The Red Sox are 4-1 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Orioles have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
- The Orioles have a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Red Sox have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
It was all Orioles in the last game of this series, as they took down the Red Sox by a score of 11-3. Baltimore had a huge 4th inning, scoring five of their eleven runs. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only three runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Orioles were favored at -159 on the money line.
Cole Irvin pitched well for the Orioles in this one, going five innings and striking out six without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Cooper Criswell had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss.
Kyle Stowers and Ryan Mountcastle each homered for the Orioles, while Cedric Mullins scored three times and drove in two runs while going 1/4. Adley Rutschman also had a two RBI game at the plate.
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction
Boston is at .500 with a record of 27-27, and they are 9.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. So far, they are 4-7 in divisional games. The Red Sox lost the first game of their series vs. the Orioles and are 8-8-1 in series this year.
At home, the Red Sox are 11-15 this year, and they have gone 16-12 on the road. As the underdog, Boston is 13-16 this year compared to a mark of 14-11 as the favorite.
When betting the run line on the Red Sox this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they’ve covered the run line in 17 of 28 games. They’ve been a favorite in 25 games and have only covered the run line in 7 of those games.
When the Boston Red Sox are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs for their game against the Baltimore Orioles. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is 8.3 runs, and their over/under record is 20-30. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 9-10. Overall, 42.6% of their games have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs.
Right-hander Brayan Bello is getting the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles on the road. Bello has made eight starts this year and has a record of 5-2 with a 4.04 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Bello has a WHIP of 1.16 and opponents are batting .218 this year. In his last outing, Bello gave up three earned runs in six innings of work, coming out with the win. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. Bello has made two quality starts this year.
The Red Sox offense comes into today’s game averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Boston is also among the league leaders in home runs, and they have a team batting average of .243, which is 11th in the MLB.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill have been the Red Sox’s top power threats this season, with Devers having 10 homers and O’Neill sitting at 11. Devers is also batting .273 for the season, and O’Neill is hitting just .236. Ceddanne Rafaela has been a key run producer for the Red Sox so far, leading the team with 28 RBIs, but he is hitting just .209.
The Orioles are 34-18 overall this season, putting them 2nd in the AL East, 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. They have been playing well in the division, putting up an 8-2 record. Baltimore has won five straight games, and they are coming off a win in the series opener vs. the Red Sox.
At home, the Orioles are 18-10 this year, and they have gone 16-8 on the road. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 27-16, and they are 7-2 as the underdog. Baltimore’s overall series record is 11-4-2, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
When the Orioles are favored at home, they have been a solid bet on the run line, going 15-13. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, and they have covered the run line in five straight games when they are favored.
The Orioles have played in 26 games this season with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, going 10-7 in those contests. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 26-20. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and the average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs.
Through eight starts, Grayson Rodriguez has a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 3.20. He has made four quality starts this year and is averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Rodriguez picked up the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on three hits. Before that, he had not allowed an earned run in two straight starts. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a 1.12 ERA compared to 6.04 on the road.
Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ most consistent power threats this season, as Rutschman’s 10 homers is 2nd on the team and Henderson’s 17 homers is the best mark on the team and 2nd in the league. Rutschman is also the team’s top hitter in terms of RBIs, as he comes into the game ranked 8th in the league with 37 RBIs. Rutschman is batting .300 for the season, while Henderson is hitting .260.
Ryan Mountcastle has been swinging a hot bat for the Orioles, going 11/31 in his last eight games. However, he hasn’t gone deep during that stretch. Gunnar Henderson has three homers in his last nine games, but he is just 7/30 in that stretch. Anthony Santander has really struggled of late, going just 3/22 in his last six games.
Our prediction for the Orioles vs. Red Sox matchup is to take the Orioles to win straight up. However, with the money line payout for the Orioles at -164, we actually recommend taking the over on the runs line, as we have the final score at 5-4 in favor of the Orioles.
For this game, the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and we have this game going over. Our recommended pick is to take the over at -113. Looking at the starting pitchers, Grayson Rodriguez is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for eighth among starters.
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Red Sox (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | Out | Triceps |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Forearm |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Questionable | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Hamstring |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Isaiah Campbell | Out | Shoulder |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
