Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Preview
The Braves will look to extend their three-game winning streak on Sunday as they face the Nationals, who have lost two straight. This NL East matchup has a start time of 12:05 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -189. The Nationals are +159 underdogs.
Washington comes into the game with a record of 58-72, while the Braves are 70-59 overall. Reynaldo Lopez is starting for the Braves, while the Nationals are going with DJ Herz. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Trends and Key Stats
- The Nationals are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- Conversely, the Braves have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- As the favorite, the Braves are 7-3 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Nationals have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
The most recent game o of this Braves vs Nationals series came right down to the end, as the Nationals rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 4-2 at home. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -174 on the money line.
Charlie Morton got the start for the Braves, going just 5 2/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out six. Aaron Bummer got the win out of the bullpen, and Pierce Johnson got the save. Jake Irvin only went 5 1/3 innings for the Nationals, giving up two earned runs on five hits.
Offensively, the Braves were led by Ramon Laureano, Orlando Arcia, and Whit Merrifield, as they were the only three Braves hitters to have more than one hit. Laureano and Gio Urshela each homered for Atlanta.
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Washington is on the road today, and they are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they have dropped the first two games of their series vs. the Braves. Overall, the Nationals are 58-72, putting them 4th in the NL East. They are 17.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead.
So far, the Nationals have gone 17-20 against other NL East teams. At home, they are 30-33 compared to 28-39 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 46-61 this season, and they are 12-11 when favored.
The Nationals are 39-28 against the run line on the road this season, but they have failed to cover in their last two road games. They have a run line record of 11-12 as the favorite and 62-45 as the underdog. Their average run differential in games they win is +3.4, while their average run differential in losses is -3.6.
Washington’s games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and the over/under record for the Nationals is 64-61. When the O/U line is set at 8 runs, the Nationals are 8-8-1, and 67.7% of their games have had higher lines than 8 runs. The under has hit in Washington’s last two games.
Washington is sending DJ Herz to the mound today vs. the Braves, and he comes in with a record of 2-6 and an ERA of 4.15. Herz has made 13 starts this season and has pitched better at home, coming in with a 4.06 ERA compared to 6.19 on the road. In his last outing, Herz took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work vs. the Rockies. He has given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Against the Braves, Herz has made one appearance and allowed two homers. Herz’s WHIP for the season is 1.32.
Washington’s offense is averaging just 4.2 runs per game this season, which is 19th in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, they are just 25th in home runs and are near the bottom of the league in isolated power. As a team, the Nationals are batting .245, which is 11th in the league.
Luis García Jr. is leading the Nationals in RBIs this season and is also 2nd on the team with 15 home runs. CJ Abrams has 18 homers this season, which is the best mark on the team. Over his last six games, José Tena is hitting .391 with one home run and three RBIs. Alex Call has also gone deep twice in his last six games, but is just 5/20 in that stretch.
With an overall record of 70-59, the Braves trail the Phillies by five games for the NL East lead. The Braves have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Nationals, and they have won three straight games overall. In the NL East, they lead the Mets by 2.5 games for the second spot in the division.
Atlanta has gone 22-17 against other teams in the NL East. As the favorite, the Braves are 60-46 this season and 10-13 as the underdog. They have won three straight games at home, and they are 36-27 at home this season. On the road, the Braves are 34-32.
Atlanta has played to a run line record of 59-70 this season, including a 26-37 mark at home. Their average run margin for the season is +0.4, but they have been outscored by an average of 0.0 runs per game at home. They are 33-33 against the run line on the road, where their average scoring margin is +0.9 runs per game. They are currently riding a run line win streak as the favorite, where their record is 46-60.
The Braves have played to the over in 77 of their 124 games this season, and their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have gone over in 7 of 21 games. Their current under streak is at 6 games.
Through 20 starts, Reynaldo López has a record of 7-4 and an ERA of 2.05. This season, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t give up an earned run. Against the Phillies on August 20th, López went five innings, giving up one earned run, and finished with 10 strikeouts. He has made 11 starts at home, going 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA. On the road, López is 3-3 with a 2.43 ERA. The right-hander’s last outing on the road came on July 28th, where he went three innings and didn’t give up a run. He finished with one strikeout in that outing.
Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear for the Braves, going 14/33 in his last nine games with two homers and four RBIs. Ozuna is also on a nine-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .307, which is the best mark on the team, and his 37 homers are 4th in the league. Matt Olson is 2nd on the Braves with 21 homers but is batting just .225.
As a team, the Braves are 3rd in homers and are averaging 4.3 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Overall, the Braves are batting .242, which is 13th in the league.
Our predicted final score for this Nationals and Braves matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Braves. However, with the Braves being -189 on the money line, we actually like the over in this one, as the line is sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Reynaldo Lopez is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and he has a good chance of picking up the win. As for the Nationals starter, DJ Herz is projected to finish with six strikeouts as well.
Offensively, the Braves are actually predicted to finish with more runs than the Nationals, and you could look to get some action on their home run total, as they are projected to finish with 10th in the league in home runs.
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Nationals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | Out | Wrist |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Austin Riley | Out | Hand |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
Washington Nationals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Derek Law | Out | Elbow |
| Alex Call | Out | Foot/Ankle |
| Mason Thompson | Out | Elbow |
| Josiah Gray | Out | Elbow |
| Cade Cavalli | Out | Elbow |
