Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Betting Tips 5/27/2024

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There does appear to be a chance of light rain for Monday’s Nationals vs. Braves game in Atlanta. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -201. The money line odds for the Nationals are at +170, and they are starting Mitchell Parker.

Charlie Morton will be on the mound for the Braves, and he will be facing a Nationals team that is 23-28 and 3rd in the NL East. Atlanta is 2nd in the NL East with a record of 30-20.

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Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats

• The Nationals are 0-5 in their five most recent road games, including a 1-4 runline record.
• On the opposing side, the Braves have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
• The Braves have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
• The Nationals have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

C.J. Abrams had a big game for the Nationals in their most recent game vs. the Mariners, going 1/4 with three RBIs and a homer. The Nationals really needed a big game from Abrams, as they lost 9-5 to the Mariners. Washington was the +150 underdog at home going into this matchup.

Patrick Corbin started for the Nationals, going six innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits. He also issued two walks and took the loss. The Nationals’ bullpen allowed six more runs in the 8th and 9th innings to put the game out of reach. Dylan Floro and Kyle Finnegan each allowed three runs.

Washington will be on the road today to take on the Braves, and they are 3rd in the NL East, 13.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are 5-5 in divisional games. The Nationals are 23-28 overall, and they have gone just 3-7 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Nationals are 10-13 this year compared to 13-15 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 20-26 this year and 3-2 when favored. As the road underdog, the Nationals have a mark of 11-14 this year. Washington won their most recent series, taking two of three from the Mariners.

Washington is 31-20 against the run line this season, including an 18-10 mark on the road. The Nationals have been a run line underdog in 46 of their 49 games this season, going 28-18 in those contests. Their average run differential in wins is +3.4, while it’s -3.5 in losses. Washington is currently on a run line losing streak of one game.

The Washington Nationals are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves. The O/U line is set at 9 runs, which is higher than their combined run average of 8.4. Their O/U record for the season is 22-27, and the average O/U line for their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 9 runs, their O/U record is 1-3. So far this season, only 17.6% of their games have had O/U lines set at 9 runs or higher.

Left-hander Mitchell Parker gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Braves on the road. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA. Parker’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.16. In his 38 innings of work, he has given up four homers and is averaging 7.58 strikeouts per nine innings. Parker’s last outing came against the Twins, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had taken the loss in two straight outings.

Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are just 22nd in runs per game and have the 17th worst team batting average in the league. The Nationals have been even worse in terms of slugging percentage and OPS. They do have a few hitters who have shown some power this season, as CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. are 1st and 2nd on the team in home runs, respectively. However, Abrams is just 3/19 in his last five games, and Garcia Jr. has gone 4/19 in that stretch.

Keibert Ruiz is on a three-game hitting streak and has gone 6/12 in his last five games. Overall, he is batting .500 in his last five games. Eddie Rosario and CJ Abrams have both struggled in this stretch, with Rosario going 1/18 and Abrams going 3/19.

The Braves’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Pirates, closing out their series with an 8-1 win. After allowing one run to the Pirates in the 2nd inning, the Braves responded with a run of their own and added another three runs in the 3rd. Atlanta went on to close things out with another two runs in the 8th.

Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. He also issued just one walk and struck out eight Pirates batters. Matt Olson was hot at the plate, going 3/5 with a homer and three RBIs.

With a record of 30-20, the Braves trail the Phillies by six games in the NL East. So far, they have gone 10-5 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves will host the Nationals today with an overall record of 16-8 at home.

As for how they have fared as the favorite, the Braves are 29-17 this season. When they have been the underdog, they are just 1-3. Atlanta’s series record is 11-5-1 coming into today’s game, and they are 4-6 across their last ten games.

When betting the run line with the Braves, it’s been more profitable to do so on the road, as they are 15-11 against the run line away from home. They are just 11-13 against the run line at home, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.8.

When the Braves are at home, the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for their games this season is 8.3 runs, and their over/under record is 17-31. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and when the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 4-7-1. So far this season, 11 of their games have had over/under lines set above 9 runs, accounting for 22.0% of their games, while 27 games have had lines set below 9 runs, making up 54.0% of their games.

Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Cubs on May 21st, he went five innings, giving up one earned run, and he finished with eight strikeouts. Looking back over his last four outings, Morton has allowed just one earned run in three of them. His ERA for the season is 3.35, along with a record of 3-1. Morton’s WHIP for the season is 1.20. So far, he has made four quality starts and is averaging 9.18 strikeouts per nine innings.

Marcell Ozuna has been a huge run producer for the Braves this season, as his 47 RBIs are 2nd in the league and lead the team. He also has a team-high 15 home runs and is batting .311. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team in RBIs and has gone deep eight times, but he is batting just .230 for the season.

Over the Braves’ last six games, Adam Duvall has gone just 3/14 with two homers, while Matt Olson has also gone deep twice in this stretch but is just 6/26. Michael Harris II has gone 8/25 in his last six games and is on a three-game hitting streak.

Our prediction for this Nationals vs. Braves matchup is to take the Braves to win straight up, but we see the payout for the Braves to win at -201 isn’t worth the risk. Instead, we like the over, with the line sitting at 9 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Braves.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Charlie Morton is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the second-best among all starters today. As for Mitchell Parker, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is seventh among starters.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Betting Tips

• Take the Braves on the moneyline
• The Braves should also cover at -1.5
• Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

Washington Nationals Injury Report

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