Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Betting Tips 9/7/2024

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The Braves and Blue Jays will face off in an interleague matchup at 7:20 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The money line odds have the Braves at -178 compared to the Blue Jays at +148. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

BSSE will be televising Saturday’s game, and the Blue Jays are looking to snap a four-game losing streak. They are 5th in the AL East, while the Braves are 3rd in the NL East with a record of 77-64.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays Trends and Key Stats

• The Blue Jays are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Braves have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
• The Braves have a straight-up record of 8-2 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
• When playing as the underdog, the Blue Jays have won 3-7 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.

The most recent game o of this Braves vs Blue Jays series came right down to the end, as the Blue Jays rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 3-1 at home. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -171 on the money line.

Max Fried pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and striking out eight without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Raisel Iglesias closed things out. Kevin Gausman had a decent outing for the Blue Jays, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work.

At the plate, Marcell Ozuna was the only Braves hitter to have more than one hit, as he went 2/3 with an RBI. Nathan Lukes had a two-hit game for the Blue Jays, driving in their only run.

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Toronto is 67-75 overall, putting them 5th in the AL East, and they trail the Orioles by 15 games for the division lead. The Blue Jays have lost four straight games, and they dropped the first game of this series vs. the Braves. So far, they are 16-23-6 in series this year and have dropped two straight series.

At home, the Blue Jays are 34-35 this year compared to a 33-40 mark on the road. As the underdog, the Blue Jays are 26-47 this year, and they are 41-28 when favored. Toronto’s overall record as the underdog is 20-33. Their longest losing streak as the underdog is three games this year. Over the last 10 games, the Blue Jays are just 3-7.

The Blue Jays are 46-27 against the run line on the road this season, but they have failed to cover in their last two games as the favorite. Overall, Toronto is 71-71 against the run line this season, with an average run differential of -0.4 runs per game.

The Blue Jays are on the road today against the Braves, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. Toronto’s games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 74-65. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Blue Jays have gone over 23 times and under 19 times. Overall, 19.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.

José Berríos has been pitching well for the Blue Jays, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced the Twins on August 31st and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. In his 28 starts, Berríos has a record of 14-9 and an ERA of 3.59. This year, he has one complete game and 18 quality starts. Berríos’ ERA on the road is 5.1, and he has a record of 5-7 away from home. At home, his ERA is 3.07, and he is 9-2.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been a below-average home run hitting team, coming into the game 22nd in the league. As a team, the Blue Jays are batting .241, which is 13th in the league.

Over his last five games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone 9/22 with a homer and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .327 with 28 homers and 93 RBIs. Justin Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Alejandro Kirk all come into the game on four-game hitting streaks.

With an overall record of 77-64, the Braves are eight games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Currently, the Braves are 3rd in the NL East, sharing the spot with the Mets, who are also eight games back. So far, they are 23-21 in divisional games.

At home, the Braves are 39-29 this season and 38-35 on the road. Atlanta has been good as the favorite this year, going 65-48, and they are 12-16 as the underdog. The Braves’ series record is 25-16-5 this year.

Atlanta won the first game of this series vs. the Blue Jays, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall.

In games where the Braves have been favored, they have gone 51-62 against the run line, and in games where they have been the underdog, they are 17-11. Overall, Atlanta’s run line record is 68-73, and their average run differential is +0.5 runs per game. In games where they have won, their average run differential is +3.6 runs per game, and in games where they have lost, it is -3.2 runs per game.

The Braves are at home today against the Blue Jays with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Braves games this season is 8.0. They have an over/under record of 51-85 on the season, and their average over/under line is 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Braves have a record of 13-23 in those games. So far this season, 44 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which is 31.2% of their games. Their current under streak is at 6 games.

Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 5-6. His ERA is 3.69, along with a WHIP of 1.07. Schwellenbach’s last outing came against the Phillies, where he finished with a no-decision. In that start, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, five hits, one walk, and one homer. Before that outing, he had gone 4 2/3 innings without giving up a run. Schwellenbach has allowed a homer in three straight starts.

Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late, going 13/39 in his last 10 games, and he is currently on a five-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .309 with 37 homers and 98 RBIs. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 25 homers but is hitting just .230 this season. In his last 10 games, Olson has gone 9/39.

As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game and have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 4.6 runs per game. Overall, they are 5th in home runs and have the league’s 5th best team batting average. Currently, they are 16th in scoring.

For this Blue Jays vs. Braves matchup, we actually like the over/under line more than the money line. Our prediction is that the Braves will pick up a 6-5 win, giving us a lot of value with the over, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

If you are looking for a money line pick, the Braves at -178 is a solid option. However, we see this being a close game and would recommend taking the over. Looking at today’s starters, we have Spencer Schwellenbach finishing with six strikeouts compared to José Berríos with just four.

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips

• Take the Braves on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Blue Jays (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report