Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Betting Tips 7/20/2024

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

From Truist Park in Atlanta, we have the Cardinals and Braves facing off in an NL matchup. First pitch for Saturday’s matchup is set for 1:07 PM ET. There does appear to be a chance of rain in Atlanta, with the forecasted temperature being 70 degrees.

Charlie Morton and the Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -157. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and this game will be televised on BSSE. Kyle Gibson will go for the Cardinals, who are 50-46, while the Braves are 53-42 and are second in the NL East.

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Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Cardinals are 4-1. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Braves have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
• Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Braves have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
• The Cardinals have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

The Cardinals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with an 8-3 loss. This was especially tough, as it was the Cardinals’ third straight loss. St. Louis was the slight favorite at -127 on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Cubs scored six times in the second.

Offensively, the Cardinals only had three fewer hits than the Cubs but scored just three runs. All of their runs came in the 2nd inning. Alec Burlesson had a big game, going 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.

St. Louis is 50-46 overall and 4.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cardinals are 15-14 in divisional games this year. They are starting this one on the road, where they are 24-24 this year. They have been good at home, putting together a record of 26-22.

As the road underdog, the Cardinals are 15-18 this year, and they are 23-23 as the underdog overall. St. Louis’ series record is 16-12-3 this year, and they have won two straight series on the road. Their overall series record is 16-12-3 this year.

When it comes to the run line, the Cardinals are 47-49 overall, including a 25-23 mark at home. They are 22-26 on the run line on the road, but have covered in two straight. They have been the underdog in 46 games and are 29-17 on the run line in those games. Their average run differential in winning games is +2.5, while it’s -3.6 in losses.

St. Louis has been a consistent over team this season, with a combined run average of 8.7 and an over/under record of 46-47. The average O/U line in their games is 8 runs, but when the line is set at 9 runs, the over has hit at an 8-6-1 clip. The over has also hit in three straight games for the Cardinals.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Braves on the road. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 7-3 with an ERA of 4.16. Gibson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.36. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Gibson has a batting average allowed of .250 and is averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has made eight quality starts. Per nine innings, Gibson is averaging 3.63 walks.

St. Louis comes into today’s game with the 23rd scoring offense in the MLB, averaging just 4.1 runs per game. They have been equally as bad at home as they have been on the road in terms of scoring. Overall, the Cardinals are batting .245, which is 8th in the league, but they are just 19th in home runs and have the 19th worst isolated power figure in the league.

Right fielder Alec Burleson has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 17 homers are the best on the team and 11th in the MLB. He is also batting .288 for the season and has three homers in his last six games. Brendan Donovan has been swinging a hot bat of late, as he is on a five-game hitting streak and is batting .276 for the season.

The Braves’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Padres, closing out their series with a 6-3 win. After allowing one run to the Padres in the bottom of the first, the Braves responded with a three-run 4th inning. Atlanta went on to add another three runs in the 6th inning.

Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going five innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Atlanta’s offense was carried by Travis d’Arnaud, who went 2/3 with two homers and four RBIs.

Heading into today’s game vs. the Cardinals, the Braves are 53-42 overall, which has them eight games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta is 14-12 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves will be at home today, where they are 29-17 this season.

Atlanta has an overall series record of 18-11-3 this year, and they closed out their series vs. the Padres with a win. As for their overall record, the Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 games. This year, they are 49-34 as the favorite and 4-8 as the underdog.

When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per victory. Their run line record is 45-50 overall, but they are 21-25 at home and 24-25 on the road. As the favorite, they are 39-44 vs. the run line, but as the underdog, they are 6-6. Their overall run differential is +0.7 runs per game.

The Braves are home today against the Cardinals, and the over/under line is set at 9 runs. Atlanta’s games have averaged 7.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 33-57. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 8-12-3. Only 13.7% of their games have had lines set at 9 runs or higher.

Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today and will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. In that outing vs. the Diamondbacks, he gave up two homers. Looking back over his last four outings, Morton has allowed at least one homer in each of them. Morton’s ERA for the season is 4.07, along with a record of 5-5. So far, he has made seven quality starts and is averaging 8.97 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Morton has given up 11 homers and is averaging 3.51 walks per nine innings.

Marcell Ozuna comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top power hitters, as his 26 home runs are 4th best in the MLB this season. Ozuna is also 3rd in the league in RBIs, with 77. He has also been hot of late, going 11/24 in his last six games, with three homers and seven runs scored. Ozuna also has the Braves’ top batting average for the season at .303.

As a team, the Braves are 10th in the league in batting average and are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. This puts them right around the league average in both categories. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have the 10th best slugging percentage in the league.

Given that the Cardinals are the underdogs in this one, we really like the value of taking them on the money line, with the payout sitting at +130. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Cardinals, meaning you could also look to take the over, as the line is currently sitting at 9 runs.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Charlie Morton finishing with eight strikeouts compared to Kyle Gibson with six. However, Morton is projected to go deeper into the game, finishing with five innings compared to Gibson’s four.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips

• We like the Cardinals on the moneyline (+130)
• The Cardinals are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report