Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Betting Tips 7/19/2024

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

There does appear to be a chance of light rain in Atlanta on Friday, where the Braves and Cardinals will face off at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 PM ET. BSSE will carry this one on TV.

The Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -134, while the Cardinals have a line of +113. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and Sonny Gray will start for the Cardinals, while the Braves are set to go with Spencer Schwellenbach.

Check out BetCoco for Atlanta Braves – St. Louis Cardinals odds

Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats

• The Cardinals are 4-1 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• On the other side, the Braves have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Braves have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
• Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Cardinals have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

The Cardinals will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with an 8-3 loss. This was especially tough, as it was the Cardinals’ third straight loss. St. Louis was the slight favorite at -127 on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Cubs scored six times in the second.

Offensively, the Cardinals only had three fewer hits than the Cubs but scored just three runs. Alec Burleson was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and a run scored. The Cardinals also wasted a big game from Brendan Donovan, who went 3/3 with a run scored.

St. Louis is 50-46 overall and 4.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals’ division record is 15-14 heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Braves. They have won two straight games on the road and are an even 24-24 on the road this season.

So far, the Cardinals have been good as the favorite, going 27-23, and they are 23-23 as the underdog. St. Louis’ overall series record is 16-12-3, and they have won two straight series on the road. Their series with the Cubs was preceded by losing two straight series.

St. Louis has been a tough team to bet on this season, as they have a run line record of 47-49. They have been slightly better on the road, going 22-26 against the run line compared to 25-23 at home. The Cardinals have been a profitable team to bet on as the underdog, going 29-17 against the run line in those games. They have also been a good bet to cover the run line in their last two road games.

The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road against the Atlanta Braves today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for their games this season is 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 46-47. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 7-13. Overall, 75% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at three games.

Sonny Gray will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cubs, where he took the loss and gave up three earned runs in seven innings of work. In that outing, he gave up a total of six hits and issued no walks. Looking back further, Gray has lost three of his last four starts. His ERA for the season is 3.34, along with a record of 9-6. Gray’s WHIP for the season is 1.05. Out of his 17 starts, he has eight quality starts and is averaging 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, Gray has allowed eight homers and is averaging just 2.17 walks per nine innings.

St. Louis comes into the game with the 22nd ranked scoring offense in the league at 4.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .245, which is the 9th best mark in the league. However, they are near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a collective slugging percentage of just .384. Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are tied for the team lead in homers, but Burleson has been the better overall hitter, coming in with a batting average of .288.

Burleson and Nolan Arenado have been two of the Cardinals’ top hitters of late, with Arenado batting .385 over his last 10 games, and Burleson has four homers in this stretch while hitting .325. Arenado also comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Brendan Donovan, who is batting .276 for the season, has also gone deep eight times this year.

The Braves’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Padres, closing out their series with a 6-3 win. After allowing one run to the Padres in the bottom of the first, the Braves responded with a run of their own. Atlanta went on to add another three runs in the 4th inning.

Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going five innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Atlanta’s offense was carried by Travis d’Arnaud, who went 2/3 with two homers and four RBIs.

With an overall record of 53-42, the Braves are 8.5 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves will host the Cardinals today, and they are 14-12 against other teams in the NL East. Atlanta took two of three from the Padres in their most recent series.

At home, the Braves are 29-17 this season compared to a 24-25 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 49-34 and just 4-8 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Braves have won two straight at home, and their overall series record is 18-11-3.

While the Braves’ run line record is below .500, they have been a profitable team to bet on the run line at home, where they are 21-25. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have an average run margin of +0.7 at home this season. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it drops to -3.1 in losses.

Atlanta has played to the over in 33 of their 57 games this season, and their games have averaged 7.9 runs per game. When the O/U line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over is 6-10. Overall, 76.8% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 7.5 runs, with an average O/U line of 8 runs per game.

Right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start for the Braves today as he faces off against the Cardinals. This year, he has made eight starts and has a record of 3-4 with a 4.43 ERA. Schwellenbach’s WHIP for the season is 1.16, and opponents are batting .241 off him this year. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and coming away with the win. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Schwellenbach has made four quality starts this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.26 strikeouts and just 2.01 walks.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top run producers this season, as his 77 RBIs are 2nd in the MLB, and he is also 4th in the league with 26 homers. Ozuna has also been hot of late, going 11/31 in his last 8 games with three homers. His six-game hitting streak is the longest on the team. Overall, he is batting .303.

As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They are also just 12th in batting average and have been below average in terms of drawing walks this season. Overall, they are 10th in the league in home runs.

Looking at today’s game between the Cardinals and Braves, we see the Braves coming out on top by a score of 5-4. With the money line payout for a Braves win sitting at -134, this is the way we recommend playing this one.

Looking at the starting pitcher’s projections, we have Sonny Gray finishing with seven strikeouts, and Spencer Schwellenbach with five. As for the offenses, we have the Cardinals finishing with eight hits compared to the Braves with eight.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips

• Take the Braves on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report