Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Preview
At 12:20 PM ET, the Padres and Braves face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are favored on the money line (-125). The money line odds for the Padres are sitting at +104. Today’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
San Diego will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak, as they are 24-24 and 2nd in the NL West. The Braves are 3-0 in their last three and 26-16 overall, which has them 2nd in the NL East. Dylan Cease will start for the Padres, and he is facing off against Reynaldo Lopez.
Check out BetCoco for Atlanta Braves – San Diego Padres odds
Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- The Padres are 4-1 in their five most recent road games, including a 5-0 runline record.
- Conversely, the Braves have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- The Braves have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Padres have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
San Diego cruised to a 9-1 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 4th inning, scoring four of their nine runs. As for the Braves, their only run came in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Padres were the slight underdogs at +103.
Yu Darvish pitched well for the Padres in this one, going seven innings and striking out nine without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Bryce Elder took the loss for the Braves, going just three innings and giving up six runs.
Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth each homered for the Padres, while Jurickson Profar scored twice and drove in two runs while going 3/4. Manny Machado also had a two-hit game and drove in a run.
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction
San Diego is looking to move above .500 today, as they come into the game with a record of 24-24. The Padres have won two straight games, and they are 7.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. So far, they have gone 12-13 in divisional games.
At home, the Padres are just 10-16 this year, but they have been good on the road at 14-8. San Diego has won two straight games as the underdog, and they are 9-5 as the road underdog this year. The Padres’ overall series record is 8-6-2, and they have won two straight series on the road.
San Diego has been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 26-22 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 18-4 on the run line. They have covered the run line in five straight road games and are 14-6 as an underdog on the run line.
The San Diego Padres have played in 30 games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs this season, which is 62.5% of their games. Their over/under record for the season is 25-22, and their average over/under line is 8 runs. Their combined run average in games this season is 9.0 runs per game.
Right-hander Dylan Cease is getting the start for the Padres today as he faces the Braves on the road. Cease has made six quality starts in his nine outings and has a record of 5-3 with a 2.46 ERA. Cease’s WHIP for the season is an impressive 0.78, and opponents are batting just .141 off him this year. In his last outing, Cease took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Cease’s ERA on the road is 1.43 compared to 4.03 at home.
So far this season, the Padres are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5.5 runs per contest. San Diego comes into the game with the 3rd best team batting average in the league at .257 and are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Jurickson Profar has been one of the league’s top hitters so far this season, batting .335 with seven homers and 31 RBIs. He is also on a seven-game hitting streak. Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis Jr. are also tied for the team lead with eight homers. However, Cronenworth is coming off a stretch in which he went just 5/24.
With a record of 26-16, the Braves are five games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves have dropped three straight games, with the last two coming vs. the Padres. So far, they have been good vs. other NL East teams, going 10-5.
At home, the Braves are 15-7 this year and have gone 11-9 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 26-13, but they have yet to win a game as the underdog this year (0-3). Atlanta has an overall series record of 10-3-1 and have won three straight series.
When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. When they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.5 runs per game. Overall, their run line record is 22-20, but they are just 10-12 against the run line at home. As the favorite, they are 20-19 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 2-1.
Braves games have gone over the over/under line in 13 of 40 games this season. The average combined run total in their games is 8.4 runs per game. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 7.5 runs. The Braves have played in four games this season with an over/under line of 7.5 runs, and all four games have gone over the total.
Right-hander Reynaldo López gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Padres at home. So far this season, he has made seven starts and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 1.34. Lopez has turned in four quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that May 13th start vs. the Cubs, he went five innings, giving up just two hits and two walks. He finished with four strikeouts in that outing. Per nine innings, López is averaging 8.93 strikeouts and 3.57 walks.
Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late for the Braves, going 13/34 in his last 10 games with two homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .323 with 12 homers, which is 3rd best in the league. Ozuna also has the 2nd best on-base percentage on the team at .398. Matt Olson and Travis d’Arnaud are both tied for 2nd on the team with five homers. Olson has driven in 23 runs but is batting just .222.
As a team, the Braves are 5th in batting average and 9th in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Atlanta’s offense has been pretty consistent, as they are 8th in on-base percentage, 8th in slugging, and 6th in OPS.
Our predicted score for this Padres and Braves matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Padres, which is why we are recommending taking the Padres on the money line at +104. If you’re looking for a parlay option, we would recommend taking the over, as we have the final score being 6-5 and the line is currently sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Dylan Cease finishing with six strikeouts compared to Reynaldo Lopez with five. However, we do have Lopez finishing with a better ERA, but we still like the Padres to come out on top.
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- We like the Padres on the moneyline (+104)
- The Padres are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Travis d’Arnaud | Questionable | Head |
| Reynaldo López | Probable | Back |
| Austin Riley | Questionable | Side |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Murphy | Out | Oblique |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
| Tucupita Marcano | Out | Knee |
