Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Preview
Yu Darvish will start for the Padres on Sunday, as they are facing off against the Braves and Bryce Elder. This one is getting started at 7:10 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -116 compared to the Padres at -104.
San Diego is 23-24 and 2nd in the NL West, while the Braves are 26-15 and have won two straight. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and this game will be televised on ESPN.
Check out BetCoco for Atlanta Braves – San Diego Padres odds
Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- The Padres are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- In the Braves’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- The Padres are 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite and 5-5 as the underdog.
- The Braves are 6-4 (favorite) and 5-5 (underdog).
San Diego picked up a 3-1 road win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Padres offense got off to a fast start, scoring three runs in the first and picking up the game’s final run in the 5th. On the other side, the Braves got on the board with one run in the 5th and couldn’t muster any more offense.
Matt Waldron got the win for the Padres, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts but issued two walks. As for the Braves, Max Fried got the start and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work.
Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, and Jurickson Profar each had two hits for the Padres. Cronenworth scored two of the Padres’ three runs. Atlanta’s lone run came on a Matt Olson home run.
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction
San Diego is 23-24 overall, and they are 7.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres lead the series vs. the Braves 1-0 and are 5-5 over their last 10 games. At home, the Padres are just 10-16 this year, but they have been good on the road, going 13-8.
As the favorite, the Padres are 14-14 this year and 9-10 as the underdog. San Diego has won two straight road games, and their overall series record is 8-6-2.
When it comes to the run line, the Padres have been a strong bet on the road this season, going 17-4. Their average run margin on the road is +1.5, which is significantly better than their average run margin at home, which is -1.0. They are 8-18 against the run line at home. The Padres have covered the run line in four straight road games and are 13-6 against the run line as an underdog this season.
The Padres have been involved in 46 games this season, and 40 of them have had over/under lines set at less than 9 runs. So far, the over has hit in 24 of those games. In the six games where the line was set at 9 runs or more, the over has hit just twice. The Padres’ games have averaged exactly 9.0 runs per game this season.
Yu Darvish has been pitching well for the Padres this season and comes into the game with a record of 3-1 and an ERA of 2.43. He has made a total of eight starts and two of them have been quality starts. Darvish’s WHIP for the season is currently .98, and opponents are batting .187 off the right-hander this year. In his last outing, Darvish was dominant, going seven innings and not giving up a run against the Dodgers. He finished with seven strikeouts in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in back-to-back starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Padres are 10th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.6 runs per contest. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per game. San Diego has been one of the better hitting teams in the league so far, batting a collective .255, which is the 5th best mark in the league.
Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth are both in the top 10 in the league in home runs and are 2nd and 3rd on the team in batting average, respectively. Profar is also on a six-game hitting streak. Luis Arraez has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/30 in his last seven games.
With a record of 26-15, the Braves are four games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves have dropped two straight games, with both coming in this series vs. the Padres. So far, they have been good vs. other NL East teams, going 10-5 in the division.
At home, the Braves are 15-6 this year compared to an 11-9 mark on the road. So far, they have really struggled as the underdog, going 0-3, but they are a strong 26-12 when favored. Atlanta has an overall series record of 10-3-1 this year and have won three straight series.
Atlanta has been a solid run line bet this season, going 22-19 overall. They have been particularly good on the road, where they are 12-8 against the run line. The Braves have been favored in 38 of their games and have gone 20-18 against the run line in those contests.
With an over/under of 9 runs, the Braves’ games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 12-27. In their last 10 games, the under has hit 10 times. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs this season, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, their over/under record is 2-6-1.
Getting the start at home for the Braves is Bryce Elder. He has had a bit of a mixed bag in his first two starts, as he picked up a win in his first outing but then took the loss in his last start. Elder’s last time out, he went 3 1/3 innings and gave up 4 earned runs on 7 hits. In his first start, he went 5 1/3 innings and gave up 2 runs on 7 hits.
Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late for the Braves, going 8/20 in his last six games. For the season, he is batting .325 with 12 homers and 41 RBIs, which is good for 1st in the league. Ozuna is also on a 10-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is also on a good stretch at the plate, going 8/21 in his last six games with a home run and five RBIs.
As a team, the Braves are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in batting average and have the league’s top offense in terms of RBIs.
Our prediction for this Padres vs. Braves matchup is to take the Braves on the money line at -116. We have the Braves winning this one by a final score of 6-5, giving you some wiggle room if you wanted to take the over, as the line is sitting at 9 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Yu Darvish going five innings and finishing with six strikeouts. As for the Braves starter, Bryce Elder, we have him also finishing with six strikeouts and going six innings.
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- We like the Braves on the moneyline (-116)
- The Braves should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Travis d’Arnaud | Questionable | Head |
| Reynaldo López | Probable | Back |
| Austin Riley | Questionable | Side |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Sean Murphy | Out | Oblique |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
| Tucupita Marcano | Out | Knee |
