Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview
Friday’s matchup between the Phillies and Braves gets started at 7:20 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The Braves are the betting favorite on the money line (-144), while the Phillies are at +123. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Philadelphia leads the NL East with a record of 57-30, while the Braves are in second at 47-38. Max Fried will be on the mound for the Braves, and he is facing off against Aaron Nola for the Phillies. This game can be seen on APLTV.
Check out BetCoco for Atlanta Braves – Philadelphia Phillies odds
Atlanta Braves Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Phillies in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Braves, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Braves have won 4-6 straight-up, and have a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 6-4 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with a 10-2 loss. Philadelphia was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Cubs scored five times in the 4th.
Cristopher Sánchez got the start for the Phillies and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up seven earned runs. Offensively, the Phillies only had two fewer hits than the Cubs but scored just two runs. Nick Castellanos had a homer in the 2nd inning but went just 2/4.
Philadelphia is 57-30 overall, putting them in 1st place in the NL East. Currently, they lead the Braves by 9.0 games. The Phillies have gone 14-8 against other teams in the NL East this year. The Phillies are coming off a series win vs. the Cubs and have an overall series record of 18-7-5.
At home, the Phillies have been strong this year, going 33-14. On the road, they are 24-16. Philadelphia has been really good in night games this year, going 37-15. As the favorite, the Phillies are 50-24 and 7-6 as the underdog (all games have been on the road). So far, they have been good as the road underdog, putting together a record of 6-4.
When the Phillies win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game. In losses, they lose by an average of 3.2 runs per game. Overall, their run differential is +1.3 runs per game, and they are 46-41 against the run line this season. They are 22-18 against the run line on the road and 24-23 against the run line at home. As the favorite, they are 39-35 against the run line, while they are 7-6 as the underdog.
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Phillies have a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 39-43. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 7-10, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. Overall, 67.8% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs this season, and they are currently on a four-game over streak.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Braves on the road. Nola has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA. Coming into the game, he has a WHIP of 1.04 and has pitched one shutout and one complete game. Nola has turned in 12 quality starts this year and is averaging 8.28 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Nola took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 5 runs per game, which is 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. The Phillies are also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, and they have the 3rd best team batting average in the league.
Over the team’s last 10 games, Alec Bohm has gone deep three times, but he is hitting just .231 during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .296 with a team-high 70 RBIs. Bryce Harper is also having a strong season at the plate, batting .303 with a team-high 20 homers. Harper is currently on a 12-game hitting streak.
The Braves will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Giants with a 4-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 4th inning before the Giants scored three runs in the top of the 4th. Atlanta was the -128 favorite at home going into the game.
Charlie Morton took the loss for the Braves, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on five hits. He also issued two walks and hit a batter. The Braves’ offense scored their only two runs in thejson 1st inning. Ozzie Albies went 2/4 with a double and a run scored.
With an overall record of 47-38, the Braves are nine games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta is 2nd in the NL East and has gone 12-11 against other teams in the division. The Braves will host the Phillies today with an overall series record of 16-11-2.
At home, the Braves are 27-16 compared to 20-22 on the road. Atlanta has struggled as the underdog this season, going just 3-6, but they are 44-32 as the favorite. Looking back, the Braves dropped two of three games in their series vs. the Giants. They are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
The Braves have been a solid run line bet this season, going 40-45 overall. They have a run line record of 19-24 at home and 21-21 on the road. Their average run margin for the season is +0.6 runs per game. They have been favored in 76 games this season, going 35-41 against the run line. In their wins, they have an average run margin of +3.7 runs per game.
When the Braves are at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 9 runs. Their games have averaged 7.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 29-52. The under has hit in their last two games.
Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Phillies at home. Fried has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 7-3 with a 2.91 ERA. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts, along with two complete games and one shutout. Fried’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09. In his last outing, Fried finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top hitter this season, batting .296 with 21 homers and 67 RBIs, which is 4th in the league. He has also been getting on base at a strong clip, with an OBP of .379. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 12 homers this season, which is 2nd on the team and 14th in the league.
Over his last 10 games, Austin Riley has been swinging a hot bat for the Braves, going 11/36 with three homers and six RBIs. As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. Their team batting average is .243, and they are 12th in the league in home runs.
Our prediction for today’s Phillies vs. Braves matchup is that the Braves will pick up a 5-4 win at home. If you’re looking for a recommended pick, we would go with the Braves on the money line, as they are currently at -144.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Max Fried finishing with five strikeouts compared to Aaron Nola with five as well. Fried is also projected to go two innings longer than Nola, and the Braves are predicted to finish with a combined eight team strikeouts, compared to the Phillies with eight.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Phillies (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Matzek | Out | Elbow |
| Orlando Arcia | Questionable | Teeth |
| Brian Anderson | Out | Illness |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ramón Laureano | Questionable | Back |
| Jimmy Herget | Out | Shoulder |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Michael Harris II | Out | Hamstring |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | Out | Oblique |
| Hurston Waldrep | Out | Elbow |
Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | Out | Knee |
| Taijuan Walker | Out | Finger |
| Bryce Harper | Out | Hamstring |
| Kyle Schwarber | Out | Groin |
| Dylan Covey | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis F. Ortiz | Out | Forearm |
| Spencer Turnbull | Out | Lat |
| Michael Rucker | Out | Hand |
| José Rodríguez | Out | Suspension |
