Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction & Betting Tips 9/25/2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Preview

There does appear to be a chance of rain in Atlanta on Wednesday, with the forecasted temperature being 77 degrees. This NL East matchup has the Mets as +158 on the money line compared to the Braves at -188. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 PM ET, and SNY will be televising this game. David Peterson is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Chris Sale. The Braves are on a three-game winning streak and are 3rd in the NL East, while the Mets are 2nd in the division with an overall record of 87-70.

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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Mets in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
• In the Braves’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 4-1 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Braves have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 5-5 against the runline.
• Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Mets have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.

The most recent game o of this Mets and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Mets rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 5-1 at home. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -145 on the money line.

Spencer Schwellenbach pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with four strikeouts but issued five walks. As for the Mets, Luis Severino got the start and went just four innings while giving up four runs and took the loss.

Atlanta’s offense was led by Michael Harris II, who went 3/4 with a home run and two RBIs. Both Marcell Ozuna and Mark Vientos each drove in a run for the Braves’ offense.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

The Mets are 87-70 overall, putting them 2nd in the NL East, 5.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are 29-21 against other teams in the NL East. New York is on the road for today’s game vs. the Braves, and they are 41-35 on the road this season.

As the favorite, the Mets have gone 58-37 this season, and they are 29-33 as the underdog. New York has dropped three straight road games, with all three coming in this series vs. the Braves. The Mets’ overall series record is 27-17-8, and they have won two straight series.

When betting the run line on the Mets, it’s important to consider their overall run line record of 80-77. They have been a slightly better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 42-34. Their average run differential on the road is +0.4 runs per game, compared to +0.6 runs per game at home. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 36-26, compared to 44-51 as the favorite.

The New York Mets are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have played in a lot of high-scoring games this season, with their combined run average sitting at 9.1 runs per game. Overall, the over has hit in 79 of their 152 games this season, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over has gone 21-17 in their games. The under has hit in their last two games.

New York is sending left-hander David Peterson to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA. Peterson’s WHIP for the season is 1.33. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 3 2/3 innings vs. the Phillies and giving up four earned runs. Before that, he had gone 7 2/3 innings without giving up an earned run. So far, he has made 11 quality starts and is averaging 7.34 strikeouts per nine innings.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 34 homers lead the team and is 9th in the MLB, while Lindor is 11th in the league with 31 homers. Lindor comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak and is batting .271 for the season, and Alonso is hitting .242. Lindor’s 86 RBIs is 3rd on the team, and Alonso is at the top of the Mets’ leaderboard with 88 RBIs.

Over the last eight games, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez have each hit three homers, but both are batting under .240 during this stretch. Jose Iglesias has been hot of late, going 16/38 in his last nine games, and he has a 17-game hitting streak. Luisangel Acuña has also been swinging a hot bat, going 10/28 in his last nine games, including three homers.

With an overall record of 86-71, the Braves are 6.5 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta has won three straight games, and they are 27-23 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves took the series opener vs. the Mets, who are 2nd in the NL East, 5.5 games ahead of the Braves.

At home, the Braves are 43-33 this season, and they have gone 43-38 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 73-53 this season, and they are 13-18 as the underdog. Atlanta’s overall series record is 28-16-7, and they have won two straight series and two straight series on the road.

Atlanta’s run line record is 75-82 this season, including a 32-44 mark at home. They have covered the run line in three of their last four games and are 43-38 against the run line on the road. Their average run differential is +0.6 runs per game, but it jumps to +1.2 on the road. They have been the favorite in 126 games this season, going 57-69 against the run line in those contests.

The Atlanta Braves are playing host to the New York Mets today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Braves have played in 115 games with higher over/under lines this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.2 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 58-93, and when the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 13 times and under 20 times.

Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves today vs. the Mets and comes in with a record of 18-3. He has made 29 starts this season and has a league-leading 18 wins. Sale’s ERA is 2.38, and he has a WHIP of 1.01. This year, opponents are batting .210 off Sale. In his last outing, Sale gave up two earned runs in five innings of work. He got the win in that outing. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Sale’s last loss came on August 20th. He has been particularly tough at home, going 10-0 with a 2.75 ERA compared to 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA on the road.

Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been the top power threats for the Braves this season, as Ozuna’s 39 homers are 5th in the league and Olson’s 29 is 13th. Ozuna also comes into the game with a team-high 102 RBIs and is batting .310. Olson is hitting just .246 but has been on a nice stretch of late, going 19/45 over his last 10 games. Michael Harris II has also been hot, going deep five times in his last 10 games while batting .422.

Overall, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .244, which is 11th in the league.

Our predicted score for today’s Mets and Braves matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Mets. Given that the Mets are the underdogs, we really like the value of taking them on the money line, where they are paying out at +158.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Chris Sale finishing with the most strikeouts today, and he is also a good pick to get the win. However, the Braves are paying out at -188, and we don’t see enough value in this payout.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Tips

• We like the Mets on the moneyline (+158)
• The Mets are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

New York Mets Injury Report