Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Preview
At 7:20 PM ET, the Braves and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -143. The money line odds for the Mets are at +121, and they are +2 in the division.
SNY will be televising Tuesday’s matchup, and the forecast for Atlanta calls for temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, while the Braves are going with Spencer Schwellenbach. Severino is 3-1, while the Braves have won two straight, and their overall record is 85-71.
Check out BetCoco for Atlanta Braves – New York Mets odds
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Mets are 2-3. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Braves have gone 4-1 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Braves have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- The Mets have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 8-2 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Phillies, the Mets closed out the series with a 2-1 win. New York was the +120 underdog at home going into this matchup. It was the Phillies who got on the board first, scoring a run in the 1st inning, but the Mets tied things up with a run of their own in the 2nd.
Tylor Megill got the start for the Mets, going four innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. New York’s offense was carried by Brandon Nimmo, who went 1/4 with a homer and scored both of their runs. The Mets also had three other players with a hit.
The Mets are 87-69 overall and trail the Phillies by 5.5 games in the NL East. New York is coming off taking three of four games vs. the Phillies. Currently, they are on a two-game winning streak, and they are 7-3 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Mets have gone 46-35 this season, and they are above .500 at 41-34 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 58-37 this year, and they are 29-32 as the underdog. The Mets have won two straight series and have an overall series record of 27-17-8 this year.
When the Mets are on the road, they have been a solid bet on the run line, going 42-33. They have a positive run differential of 0.5 runs per game on the road, and their average run differential in their wins is 3.7 runs per game.
The New York Mets are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Mets have a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 79-72. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 15-9-1. Overall, 51.9% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at more than 8 runs.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Braves on the road. So far, he has made 30 starts and has a record of 11-6 to go along with an ERA of 3.79. This season, opponents are batting .229 off Severino, and he has a WHIP of 1.23. In his last outing, Severino picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs on two homers. Before that, he had turned in three straight outings in which he allowed just one earned run. Severino has one complete game shutout this year.
Francisco Lindor comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak and is batting .271 for the season, with 31 home runs and 86 RBIs. Pete Alonso has also been a big power threat for the Mets, as he is 8th in the league with 34 homers and has driven in a team-high 88 runs. Over his last nine games, Luisangel Acuna has gone 11/29 with three homers, and Jose Iglesias is batting .436 over his last nine games.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in the league in runs scored at 4.8 per game. They have been a good home run hitting team this season and are batting a collective .248, which is 9th in the MLB. New York is also among the league leaders in on-base percentage and OPS.
The Braves’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Marlins, closing out their series with a 5-4 win. After allowing one run to the Marlins in the 2nd inning, the Braves responded with a run of their own and added another in the 3rd. Atlanta’s big inning came in the 5th, as they scored two runs to take the lead. The Braves went on to close things out with Raisel Iglesias picking up the save.
Grant Holmes got the start for the Braves, going four innings and giving up two earned runs, and picking up the win. Atlanta’s offense was carried by Gio Urshela, who went 3/4 with a homer and a run scored. The Braves also had three other players with two hits.
With an overall record of 85-71, the Braves are 3rd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 7.5 games. Currently, they are 2nd in the NL East, leading the Braves by 2 games. The Braves have gone 26-23 against other teams in the NL East this season.
At home, the Braves are 42-33 this season, and they are 43-38 on the road. Atlanta has won two straight games, and they are 72-53 as the favorite this season. As the underdog, the Braves are 13-18 this season. They have won two straight series, and their overall series record is 28-16-7.
When the Braves are favored, they are 56-69 on the run line. They are 18-13 as the underdog on the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.3. Their overall run line record is 74-82, and their average run margin is 0.6 runs per game.
The Braves have a combined run average of 8.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 58-92. The over/under line for today’s game against the Mets is set at 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Braves have gone 9-16-1. Overall, 57.1% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start for the Braves today and is coming off a strong outing vs. the Reds. In that September 18th start, he went six innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Looking back further, Schwellenbach has turned in a quality start in two straight outings. His record for the season is 7-7, and he has an ERA of 3.61 to go along with a WHIP of 1.10. Opposing batters are hitting .234 off the right-hander this season. For the year, he has allowed 13 homers. Per nine innings, Schwellenbach is averaging just 1.81 walks compared to 9.68 strikeouts.
Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been two of the Braves’ top power threats this season, with Ozuna leading the team with 38 homers (5th in the MLB) and Olson’s 29 homers being the 12th most in the league. Ozuna is also batting .309 for the season, while Olson is hitting .246. Olson has been hot of late, going 8/17 with three homers in his last five games.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 3rd in the league in home runs. Their team batting average of .243 is 12th in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in isolated power. For the season, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road and just 3.9 runs per contest at home.
There are a few ways you could look to bet on this game, but our top recommendation would be to take the Braves on the money line at -143. We actually have the Braves winning this game by a score of 6-5, and with the payout sitting at -143, there is some good value in this bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we actually have Spencer Schwellenbach finishing with more strikeouts than Luis Severino, and Schwellenbach is projected to finish with six K’s. As for Severino, he is projected to finish with six as well.
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Braves on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mets (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Atlanta Braves Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo López | Out | Shoulder |
| A.J. Minter | Out | Hip |
| Austin Riley | Out | Hand |
| Huascar Ynoa | Out | Elbow |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Out | Knee |
| Angel Perdomo | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Kerr | Out | Elbow |
| Spencer Strider | Out | Elbow |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Francisco Lindor | Questionable | Back |
| Jeff McNeil | Out | Wrist |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Back |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Out | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
