Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Betting Tips 9/9/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Preview

Monday’s Reds vs. Braves game has a first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The forecast for Monday’s matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Nick Martinez is starting for the Reds, and the Braves are going with Charlie Morton. Atlanta is 3rd in the NL East, while the Reds are 4th in the NL Central.

The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and the Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -165. This game can be seen on BSSO.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats

• The Reds are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
• Conversely, the Braves have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
• Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Braves have won 7-3 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
• Looking at the Reds’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

The Reds pulled off a big 3-1 upset over the Mets to close out their series. Cincinnati was the +177 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. It was a two-run 9th inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Reds also added another two runs in the 3rd.

Julian Aguiar put together a good start for the Reds, going 4 2/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out two. Cincinnati’s offense was carried by Santiago Espinal, who went 2/4 with two RBIs.

Cincinnati is 69-75 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they are 13.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they have gone 20-23 in divisional games. The Reds are starting their series vs. the Braves on the road with an overall road record of 33-36.

The Reds have been a .500 team when favored this year, going 33-33. As the underdog, they are 36-42 and overall, their series record is 16-26-3. Cincinnati’s most recent series came vs. the Mets, and they lost that series 2-1.

The Reds have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 77-67 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 42-27 against the run line. They have a positive run differential overall this season, averaging a run margin of 0.1 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 50-28.

The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. The Reds have played 72 games this season with over/under lines higher than 8.5 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 67-70. Their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 16-13, and their games have averaged a line of 9 runs per game. The under has hit in their last two games.

Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA. Martinez is coming off a start in which he picked up the win, going 5 2/3 innings vs. the Astros and giving up one earned run. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Before that, he had a quality start vs. the Pirates, going three innings and giving up one earned run. Martinez’s ERA on the road is 2.95, compared to 3.74 at home.

Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ top home run hitter this season, and he is also 2nd on the team in RBIs. However, he has struggled at the plate of late, hitting just .222 over his last seven games. Overall, he is batting .261. Spencer Steer has also struggled this season, hitting just .232, but he does have 19 homers, which is 3rd on the team. Jeimer Candelario is 2nd on the Reds in homers, but he is batting just .225.

Over the team’s last seven games, Ty France has been on fire, going 12/26 with a homer and three RBIs. Nick Martini comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are 10th in the league in home runs.

Heading into their last game vs. the Blue Jays, the Braves closed out the series with a 4-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -276. Offensively, the Braves scored their four runs on eight hits and only hit one home run.

Chris Sale got the start for the Braves, going six innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out seven Blue Jays batters. Jarred Kelenic was hot at the plate, going 1/3 with a homer and scoring a run. The Braves’s other three runs came in the 2nd inning.

With an overall record of 78-65, the Braves are seven games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta will host the Reds today, and they are 23-21 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves are coming off a series win vs. the Blue Jays and have an overall series record of 26-15-5 this year.

At home, the Braves are 40-30 this year and 38-35 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 66-49 this year, and they are 12-16 as the underdog. So far, they have been good as the home favorite, putting up a mark of 39-28.

When betting the run line on the Braves this season, you would have a losing record at 68-75. Their average run margin on the season is +0.4 runs per game. They have been a better run line bet on the road at 39-34 compared to 29-41 at home. The Braves are 51-64 vs. the run line as the favorite and 17-11 as the underdog. In their wins, their average run margin is +3.5 runs per game, while in their losses, it is -3.2 runs per game.

Today’s over/under line for the Atlanta Braves’ game against the Cincinnati Reds is set at 8.5 runs. The Braves have played in 116 games this season, and their combined run average is 8.1. Their over/under record is 52-86, and the average over/under line for their games is set at 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 13-23. So far this season, 44 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 30.8% of their games.

Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just two earned runs in 5 innings of work. In that outing, he picked up the win. Looking back over his last three outings, Morton has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has been solid at home this year, coming in with a record of 5-4 and an ERA of 5.1. On the road, his ERA is 5.23. Morton’s overall record for the season is 8-7, and he has an ERA of 4.24.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 37 homers are 5th best in the MLB. He also leads the Braves with 98 RBIs, which is 6th best in the league. Ozuna has gone 8/27 in his last seven games, but he is currently on a seven-game homerless streak. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 25 homers but is batting just .231 for the season.

As a team, the Braves are 5th in the league in home runs and are averaging 4.3 runs per game. However, they have been better on the road (4.6 RPG) than at home (3.9 RPG). Overall, they are batting .241, which is 15th in the league.

We see the Reds coming away with a 6-4 road win over the Braves. Given the payout, we recommend taking the Reds on the money line, where they are sitting at +138.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Charlie Morton is projected to pick up more strikeouts than Nick Martinez, but Martinez is actually projected to have a lower ERA. Martinez is projected to finish with four K’s, while Morton is projected to finish with eight.

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips

• We like the Reds on the moneyline (+138)
• The Reds are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over

Atlanta Braves Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds Injury Report