Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Preview
The Diamondbacks are the heavy favorite on the money line today, as their odds are sitting at -182 compared to the Padres at +153. This NL West matchup has a first pitch set for 3:10 PM ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. San Diego is 2nd in the NL West, while the Diamondbacks are 3rd, and both teams are on a two-game losing streak.
Today’s over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the Padres will be looking to pick up a win and extend their season, as they are 93-68. Arizona will be sending Brandon Pfaadt to the mound. Martín Pérez is slated to start for the Padres.
Check out BetCoco for Arizona Diamondbacks – San Diego Padres odds
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats
- The Padres are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Diamondbacks have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 5-0 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Diamondbacks have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 5-5 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Padres have a straight-up record of 8-2 and a 9-1 record vs. the runline.
San Diego cruised to an easy 5-0 win over the Diamondbacks in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 9th inning, scoring all five of their runs. As for the Diamondbacks, they only had two hits in the game and didn’t score a run after the 1st inning.
Randy Vásquez only went six innings for the Padres but didn’t give up a run and finished with four strikeouts. He picked up a win in the game, while Wandy Peralta got the save. Eduardo Rodriguez had a rough outing for the Diamondbacks, giving up five runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.
Donovan Solano and Kyle Higashioka each homered for the Padres, while Brandon Lockridge scored three times and drove in a run while going 1/4. Xander Bogaerts also had a two-hit game at the plate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction
San Diego is 93-68 overall and 2nd in the NL West, four games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres have won two straight games, and they are 7-3 over their last 10. In the NL West, their overall division record is 27-24.
At home, the Padres are 45-36 this year, and they have gone 48-32 on the road. As the road underdog, the Padres have put together a record of 26-17 this year. They are also 33-25 as the underdog overall and 60-43 when favored.
The Padres have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 84-77 overall. They have been particularly good on the run line on the road, going 51-29. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.4. They have covered the run line in two straight road games and are 41-17 on the run line as an underdog this season.
San Diego has played to an Over/Under record of 81-76 this season, with an average of 8.8 runs scored per game. When the O/U line has been set at 9 runs, they have gone 6-6. The Padres have played in 15 games this season where the O/U line was set at 9 runs, which accounts for 9.3% of their games. Their games have averaged an O/U line of 8 runs per game, and their current streak is two straight games going under the total.
Left-hander Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. So far this season, he has made 25 starts and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 4.25. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .272 this season. Perez’s last outing came on September 21st, where he picked up the win after going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one earned run. In that outing, he gave up two walks and three homers. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings.
San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top-hitting team, with a team batting average of .264. They are also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, as their 190 home runs is 10th in the MLB. The Padres have been good at avoiding strikeouts this season, and they are also the league’s top-scoring team at 4.7 runs per game.
Manny Machado has been a big run producer for the Padres this season, as his 105 RBIs is 7th in the league and leads the team. He also has a team-high 29 home runs. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are also near the top of the team’s home run and RBI leaderboards. Machado has two homers in his past seven games, but is batting just .241 in that stretch.
With an overall record of 88-73, the Diamondbacks are nine games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Currently, they are in 3rd place in the division, trailing the Padres by five games for the second Wild Card spot. Arizona has dropped two straight games, and this season, they are 27-24 in the division.
At home, the Diamondbacks are 43-37 this season, and they have gone 45-36 on the road. Arizona has dropped two straight games as the favorite, and they are 52-34 when favored this year. As for their record as the underdog, it is 36-39, and the Diamondbacks’ overall series record is 27-19-4. Currently, they are losing the series vs. the Padres, 0-2.
The Diamondbacks have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 83-78. They have been especially good on the road, going 48-33. As the underdog, they are 47-28 on the run line. The average run margin in their games this season is 0.6.
The Diamondbacks have an over/under record of 91-62 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 10.3 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 19-13-4. Overall, 62.7% of their games this season have had lower over/under lines than 9 runs, and their current under streak is at 2 games.
Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt gets the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Padres at home. Pfaadt has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 10-10 with a 4.80 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Pfaadt has a WHIP of 1.25 and has turned in 13 quality starts. His ERA at home is 7.57 compared to 4.48 on the road. In his last outing, Pfaadt took the loss, giving up four earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has allowed 24 home runs.
Arizona has been the best offensive team in the league this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks are also the league’s top on-base percentage team and are 2nd in team slugging percentage. As a team, they are batting .262, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB.
Arizona’s top home run hitter is Ketel Marte, who is also 2nd on the team with a batting average of .291. Marte’s 35 homers is the 8th best mark in the league. Eugenio Suarez has also been a big run producer for the Diamondbacks, as his 99 RBIs is 11th in the league. However, he is batting just .253 for the season.
Our recommendation for the Padres vs. Diamondbacks matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 9 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Diamondbacks, giving us some room in case the line moves.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Brandon Pfaadt finishing with seven strikeouts compared to Martin Perez with five. If you’re looking for a money line pick, the Diamondbacks are the way to go, but the payout is just -182.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Padres (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Sewald | Out | Neck |
| Merrill Kelly | Probable | Calf |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Mason McCoy | Out | Back |
| Jhony Brito | Out | Elbow |
| Stephen Kolek | Out | Forearm |
