Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Betting Tips 9/27/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Preview

From Chase Field in Phoenix, we have the Padres and Diamondbacks facing off in an NL West matchup. The Padres are 91-68 this season and they are 2nd in the NL West, while the Diamondbacks are 88-71 and are 3rd in the NL West. San Diego is +110 on the money line, and the Diamondbacks are favored at -132. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 9:40 PM ET, and Yu Darvish is set to start for the Padres, while the Diamondbacks are going with Merrill Kelly. San Diego is currently on a two-game losing streak.

Check out BetCoco for Arizona Diamondbacks – San Diego Padres odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Trends and Key Stats

• The Padres are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
• Conversely, the Diamondbacks have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 5-0 record in their last five home games.
• Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Diamondbacks have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
• Looking at the Padres’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 7-3 straight-up and 8-2 vs. the runline.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Dodgers with a 7-2 loss. San Diego was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Dodgers scored five times in the 3rd.

Offensively, the Padres only had two fewer hits than the Dodgers but scored just two runs. Both of their runs came in the 5th inning. Manny Machado was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with a run scored. The Padres also wasted a good start from Joe Musgrove, who went 6 1/3 innings and gave up just two earned runs, and struck out six.

San Diego is 91-68 overall, putting them four games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres lost the final two games of their series vs. the Dodgers. So far, they have gone 25-24 in divisional games.

On the road, the Padres are 46-32 this season compared to 45-36 at home. As the favorite, San Diego is 60-43 and 31-25 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 30-16-6 this season.

San Diego is 49-29 vs. the run line on the road this season. The Padres are 3-0 vs. the run line in their last three games as an underdog and have covered the run line in 39 of 56 games in that role this season.

San Diego’s games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 81-74. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, they are 6-4 in those games. Only 9.4% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.

Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. This year, he has made 15 starts and has a record of 6-3 with an ERA of 3.18. Darvish’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.06. In his 15 appearances, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings. Darvish’s last outing came on September 22nd, where he finished with a no-decision, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on three hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

San Diego comes into the game as the league’s top hitting team, with a team batting average of .264. They are also one of the league’s best home run hitting teams, and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per game.

Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar have been two of the Padres’ top power threats this season, with Machado leading the team with 29 homers and Profar right behind him at 24. Machado’s 104 RBIs are also the best mark on the team. Luis Arraez has been a solid contact hitter for the Padres, batting .312 for the season.

Pavin Smith was hot at the plate in the Diamondbacks’s most recent game vs. the Giants, going 3/3 with a homer and three RBIs. The Diamondbacks really broke things open with a three-run 2nd inning and added another three runs in the 4th. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Diamondbacks were at -257 at home.

Zac Gallen started for the Diamondbacks, going six innings and giving up just one run on two hits. He also issued only two walks and struck out 11 Giants batters. Arizona’s bullpen closed things out with two scoreless innings, and the Diamondbacks’s offense added another two runs in the 8th to pick up the 8-2 win.

Arizona is set to host the Padres with an overall record of 88-71, which has them 3rd in the NL West. The Diamondbacks trail the Dodgers by seven games in the division and are 27-22 against other teams in the NL West. Arizona is coming off a series loss, dropping two of three games to the Giants.

At home, the Diamondbacks are 43-35 this season and 45-36 on the road. As the favorite, Arizona has gone 52-32 and 36-39 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Diamondbacks are 27-19-4 and have dropped two straight series at home.

Arizona has been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 83-76 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 48-33 against the run line. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 47-28 against the run line compared to 36-48 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +4.2, while it is -3.8 in losses.

The Diamondbacks have been a high-scoring team this season, with a combined run average of 10.4 runs per game. Their over/under record is 91-60, and their games have averaged a total of 9 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 19-11-4. Overall, 63.5% of their games have had lower lines than 9 runs, but they have gone over that line in 15.1% of their games. Their games have gone over the line in their last two games.

Arizona is sending right-hander Merrill Kelly to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 5-0 with a 3.71 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Kelly has a WHIP of 1.13 and has turned in five quality starts. In his last outing, Kelly picked up the win, going five innings and not allowing a run vs. the Brewers. He gave up just two hits in that outing. Kelly has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.28 strikeouts and 2.38 walks.

Arizona comes into the game as the top-scoring offense in the league, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. The team’s on-base percentage of .337 is the best in the league, and they also have the top OPS in the league. Arizona’s offense has also been good at putting the ball in play, as their team batting average of .263 is 2nd in the league.

Ketel Marte has been on fire of late, going 9/23 in his last seven games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .294 with a team-high 35 homers. Eugenio Suarez is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he has 29 homers this season and is 11th in the league with 98 RBIs.

Our prediction for today’s Padres vs. Diamondbacks matchup is to take the Diamondbacks on the money line at -132. We have the Diamondbacks winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the over/under line sitting at 9 runs, there isn’t much value on either side of that line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Yu Darvish is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and we have Merrill Kelly at five. Offensively, we have the Padres finishing with nine hits compared to the Diamondbacks with nine.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips

• Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Padres (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report

San Diego Padres Injury Report