Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 8/11/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

First pitch for Sunday’s Phillies vs. Diamondbacks matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. The Phillies are 69-48 this season, and they are starting Cristopher Sanchez. The Diamondbacks are 65-53 and they have Merrill Kelly on the mound. Philadelphia is currently on a two-game losing streak, and they are first in the NL East, while the Diamondbacks are third in the NL West.

The over/under line for Sunday’s game is currently at 9 runs, and the Phillies are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -129 compared to +109 for the Diamondbacks. Arizona will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Trends and Key Stats

• The Phillies are 3-2 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
• Conversely, the Diamondbacks have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
• In their last ten games as the favorite, the Phillies have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a runline record of 3-7.
• When playing as the underdog, the Diamondbacks have a 4-6 record against the runline and a 8-2 straight-up record in their last ten games.

It was all Arizona in the last game of this series, as the Diamondbacks took down the Phillies by a score of 11-1. The D-backs had a huge 7th inning, scoring seven of their eleven runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the D-backs were favored at -119 on the money line.

Zac Gallen only went 4 1/3 innings for the D-backs but gave up just one run and struck out three. Kevin Ginkel got the win out of the bullpen. Aaron Nola had a rough outing for the Phillies, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work.

Arizona’s offense was led by Jake McCarthy and Corbin Carroll, as they were the only two D-backs hitters to have more than one hit. McCarthy also homered twice and drove in four runs. Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Josh Bell, and Joc Pederson each had two RBIs.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia is currently 1st in the NL East with a record of 69-48, which is good for a 7.5 game lead over the Braves. The Phillies have dropped two straight games, and this came after winning the first two games of this series vs. the Diamondbacks. So far, they are 15-10 against other teams in the NL East.

At home, the Phillies have gone 38-21 this season and are just over .500 at 31-27 on the road. As the favorite, Philadelphia has gone 58-36 and 11-12 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 20-14-5 and have lost three straight series at home.

The Phillies have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 58-59 overall. They are 30-28 against the run line on the road, where they have a scoring margin of +0.3 runs per game. Their average run differential in all games is +0.8 runs per game.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks today, and the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 54-57. The average over/under line for Phillies games is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9 runs is 5-10-1. So far this season, 17 of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, which accounts for 14.5% of their games.

So far this season, Cristopher Sánchez has made 22 starts and has a record of 8-7. His ERA for the season is 3.27, along with a WHIP of 1.26. Sánchez has pitched much better at home, coming in with a 2.52 ERA compared to 5.23 on the road. He has one complete game shutout this year and 12 quality starts. The last time he pitched, Sánchez picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Sánchez has given up at least one homer in three of his last four outings.

Kyle Schwarber has been on fire for the Phillies of late, going 8/20 with four homers and nine RBIs over his last five games. Schwarber is currently 7th in the league with 27 homers this season. Alec Bohm has also been swinging a hot bat for the Phillies, as he is on a 12-game hitting streak while batting .298 for the season.

As a team, the Phillies are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 7th ranked home run-hitting team in the league and have the 6th best team batting average in the league.

Arizona is 65-53 overall, and they trail the Dodgers by 3.5 games in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have gone 19-14 against other teams in the NL West. They have won two straight games, and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall.

At home, the Diamondbacks are 33-26 this year and 32-27 on the road. Arizona has won seven straight series, and they are 20-13-4 in series this year. As the underdog, the Diamondbacks are 30-32 this year, and they have won three straight games as the underdog.

Arizona has been a good team to bet on the run line this season, as they are 61-57 overall. They are 34-25 on the run line on the road, where they are outscoring opponents by 0.6 runs per game. They are 27-32 on the run line at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 0.4 runs per game. They are 38-24 on the run line as an underdog and 23-33 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.1 runs per game, while it is -3.9 runs per game in losing games.

The Diamondbacks have the highest combined run average in the league at 9.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 64-49. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, they have gone 14-11-2, and 62.7% of their games have had lower lines than that. Today’s over/under line is set at 9 runs.

Merrill Kelly will be making his third start of the season for the Diamondbacks, and it will be his second straight outing at home. He has a win and a no-decision so far, and in his last start, he went 5 innings and gave up just 1 run. In his first start of the year, he went 6 innings and picked up a win vs. the Rockies.

Arizona comes into the game as the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.3 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks are also one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and have the 3rd best team batting average in the MLB.

Ketel Marte has been the team’s top hitter this season, batting .299 with 30 home runs and 81 RBIs. He has also been hot of late, going deep six times in his last nine games. Marte’s 81 RBIs are good for 9th in the league. First baseman Christian Walker is 2nd on the team with 23 homers and has driven in 71 runs.

We see a lot of value in the Diamondbacks on the money line at +109. With this being a high-scoring game, you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 9 runs, and we have this one finishing with a score of 6-5 in favor of the Diamondbacks.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Merrill Kelly finishing with six strikeouts compared to Cristopher Sanchez with just five. Sanchez is also projected to give up five earned runs, which is a lot higher than Kelly, who we have giving up just three.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Diamondbacks on the moneyline (+109)
• The Diamondbacks are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report