Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Preview
David Peterson is starting for the Mets, and he will be facing off against Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. New York is 69-64, and the Diamondbacks are 76-57. This NL matchup is set for 3:40 PM ET from Chase Field in Phoenix.
The over/under line for Thursday’s game is at 8.5 runs, and the Mets are the slight money line underdog (+100). Arizona is currently second in the NL West, while the Mets are third in the NL East.
Check out BetCoco for Arizona Diamondbacks – New York Mets odds
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Diamondbacks have a 5-0 (SU) record, along with a 5-0 record in their last five home contests.
- The Diamondbacks have a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Mets have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
Arizona picked up an 8-5 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Diamondbacks had a huge 2nd inning, scoring eight of their nine runs. As for the Mets, they scored four of their five runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Diamondbacks were favored at -128 on the money line.
Eduardo Rodriguez got the start for the Diamondbacks, going just 5 1/3 innings while giving up five runs and striking out five. He did not factor in the decision, as Ryan Thompson got the win out of the bullpen and Justin Martinez got the save. Luis Severino only went 4 2/3 innings for the Mets, giving up four earned runs on eight hits.
Corbin Carroll was the difference for the Diamondbacks, as he homered twice, scored five times, and finished with five RBIs. Joc Pederson also went deep for Arizona, while Adrian Del Castillo had a two-hit game and drove in a run.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction
New York is 69-64 overall and is nine games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Mets are 22-17 against other teams in the NL East. This season, they are 43-35 as the favorite and 26-29 as the underdog. Currently, they are 34-31 on the road compared to 35-33 at home.
The Mets have split the first two games of their series with the Diamondbacks. So far this year, their series record is 21-16-8. Overall, the Mets are 5-5 across their last 10 games.
When the Mets win, they are doing so by an average of 3.7 runs per game. When they lose, they are losing by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Their run line record is 63-70, and they are 35-30 against the run line on the road. They are 31-47 against the run line as the favorite and 32-23 against the run line as the underdog.
The Mets are on the road in Arizona today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Mets have an over/under record of 68-61 on the season, and their games have averaged a combined 9.3 runs per game. The over has hit in 25 of their 42 games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. The over has hit in two straight games for the Mets.
David Peterson has been pitching well for the Mets, as he comes into the game with a record of 8-1 and an ERA of 2.85. Overall, he has made 15 starts and eight of them have been quality starts. Looking at his numbers, opponents are batting .230 this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.32. In his last outing, Peterson picked up the win, going 7 1/3 innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings. The left-hander has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 5-0 and an ERA of 2.79.
Francisco Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Mets, going 9/27 in his last six games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .270 with a team-high 78 RBIs. Pete Alonso has also been a big power threat for the Mets, as he is 9th in the league with 28 homers and has driven in 73 runs.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the MLB. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest.
With an overall record of 76-57, the Diamondbacks are 3.0 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Arizona will host the Mets today, and they are 38-27 at home this season. The Diamondbacks have the same record on the road, going 38-30 this year.
Arizona has gone 7 straight games as the underdog, and they are 34-32 as the underdog overall this year. They have been good as the favorite, putting together a record of 42-25. The Diamondbacks have been playing well lately, going 7-3 over their last ten games, and they are 24-14-4 in series this year.
The Diamondbacks have a run line record of 30-35 at home this season, but they have been a much better bet on the run line on the road, going 40-28. Their average run margin in winning games is 4.1, while it drops to -3.8 in losses.
The Diamondbacks are at home today, where they have gone over the total in 28 of 45 games when the line is set at 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged 10 runs per game this season, and the over/under record for the season is 74-52. The over has hit in three straight games for Arizona.
Ryne Nelson will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. In that start vs. the Red Sox, he went six innings and gave up two earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Nelson has made 22 starts and has a record of 9-6. His ERA for the season is 4.29, along with a WHIP of 1.28. Opposing batters are hitting .268 off the right-hander this season. Nelson has turned in 10 quality starts this year and is averaging 7.48 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 13 homers.
Arizona comes into the game as the top-scoring team in the MLB, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.5 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks also have the league’s top batting average, hitting a combined .261, and have the 2nd best on-base percentage and OPS in the league.
Arizona’s top power threat is Ketel Marte, who has 30 homers this season, which is 7th in the league. He also leads the team with 81 RBIs and is batting .298. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 2nd on the team in RBIs and is batting .276. Christian Walker has 23 homers this season and is batting .254.
Our prediction for today’s Mets vs. Diamondbacks game is to take the Diamondbacks on the money line at -118. We have the Diamondbacks winning this one by a score of 7-6. With the Diamondbacks picking up the win, there is no need to look at the over/under line.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, David Peterson is expected to finish with six strikeouts, while Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is projected to finish with five K’s. Offensively, the Mets are projected to finish with 11 strikeouts, compared to the Diamondbacks, who are projected to finish with nine.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline
- The Diamondbacks should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 13 runs, we like the over
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | Out | Ankle |
| Christian Walker | Out | Oblique |
| Gabriel Moreno | Out | Groin |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Paul Blackburn | Out | Hand |
| Sean Reid-Foley | Out | Shoulder |
| Drew Smith | Out | Elbow |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Calf |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Dedniel Núñez | Questionable | Forearm |
| Christian Scott | Out | Elbow |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
