Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins Preview
At 3:40 PM ET, the Twins and Diamondbacks square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, and the Diamondbacks are favored on the money line (-123). The money line odds for a Twins win are sitting at +104, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.
David Festa is starting for the Twins, and he will be facing off against Jordan Montgomery. The Twins are 2nd in the AL Central, and the Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West. MLBN will be televising Thursday’s matchup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Twins in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Diamondbacks have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Diamondbacks have won 7-3 straight-up, and have a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- The Twins have a 2-8 straight-up record and a 3-7 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
It was all Minnesota in the last game of this series, as the Twins took down the Diamondbacks by a score of 8-3. The Twins offense only had one more hit than the Diamondbacks and struck out 10 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -124 on the money line.
Both teams scored three runs in the first inning, and the Diamondbacks could only muster two more runs the rest of the game. As for the Twins, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th and added two insurance runs in the 6th. As for the Diamondbacks, they had just four baserunners after the 6th inning.
Simeon Woods Richardson got the win for the Twins, going just 5 1/3 innings but giving up just three hits and three earned runs. Ryne Nelson struggled on the mound for the Diamondbacks, taking the loss after going just 3 2/3 innings and giving up six runs.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Minnesota is 44-36 overall and trails the Guardians by eight games in the AL Central. The Twins are 15-11 against other teams in the division. They are currently on the road, where they are 21-20 this season. At home, the Twins have gone 23-16.
Minnesota has been good as the favorite this year, putting together a record of 35-20 in those games. As the underdog, the Twins are 9-16 this season. They have an overall series record of 14-9-2 this year.
Minnesota is 36-44 against the run line this season, including 21-20 on the road. The Twins have a run differential of +0.4 runs per game overall, and they have been a slight underdog in most games, going 12-13 against the run line in those contests. Minnesota has a run differential of +0.3 runs per game on the road.
Minnesota’s over/under record is 38-40, and their average over/under line is 8. The over/under line for tonight’s game is 9, and their over/under record when the line is 9 is 6-2. The Twins have played in just two games with over/under lines higher than 9, and their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season. Their over streak is at 2 games.
Today, David Festa gets the nod for the Twins as they face the Diamondbacks. It’s his chance to make a strong opening statement, as this will be his first time on the mound this year.
Minnesota’s offense has been one of the best in the league so far, averaging 4.7 runs per game (8th) and are also 6th in home runs. The Twins have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 9th in the MLB, and have the league’s 4th best slugging percentage.
Willi Castro has been red hot for the Twins, going 12/32 in his last eight games with two homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .274 with seven homers. Ryan Jeffers also has 13 homers this season, which is 1st on the team and 12th in the league. He has gone deep in six straight games and is batting .236 for the year.
Arizona is 39-41 overall and trails the Dodgers by 11 games in the NL West. So far, they have gone 15-12 in divisional matchups. The Diamondbacks are at home today, where they are 20-19 this year.
The Diamondbacks have been good as the favorite this year, going 20-16, and they are 19-25 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 10-12-3. Arizona has split the first two games of this series with the Twins, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
The Diamondbacks have a run line record of 38-42 this season, including a 17-22 mark at home. They have a run line record of 21-20 on the road and are 24-20 against the run line as an underdog. Their average run differential this season is -0.1 runs per game.
Arizona’s games have averaged 9.5 runs per game this season, but today’s over/under line is set at 9 runs. The Diamondbacks are 39-39 on the over/under for the season, and they have gone 7-10-1 in games with a 9-run over/under line. In 57.5% of their games this season, the over/under line has been set at less than 9 runs. However, Arizona’s last two games have gone over the total.
Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks today and is coming off a good outing vs. the Phillies. In that June 21st start, he went 6 innings, giving up 2 earned runs and picking up the win. Looking back further, Montgomery has won three straight starts and has a record of 6-4 this season. His ERA is 5.71, and opponents are batting .289 this season. Montgomery’s WHIP for the season is 1.57. Out of his 12 starts, he has five quality starts and is averaging 6.29 strikeouts per nine innings.
Arizona comes into today’s game with the 9th best scoring offense in the league, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, the Diamondbacks are batting .250, which is 7th in the league, and have been tough to strike out, as they are 9th in the league in strikeouts.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been the team’s top power hitters this season, with Walker leading the team with 17 homers and Marte just behind him with 16. Walker has also gone 10/38 in his last nine games, with two homers and four RBIs. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/29 in his last eight games.
Our prediction for today’s Twins vs. Diamondbacks game is to take the Diamondbacks on the money line at -123. We have the Diamondbacks winning this one by a final score of 6-5, giving us a little bit of wiggle room when it comes to the over/under line, which is currently sitting at 9 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Jordan Montgomery finishing with five strikeouts, which would put him in the bottom half of starting pitchers in terms of strikeout totals. As for his opponent, we have Montgomery finishing with a line of 4 hits and two earned runs.
Offensively, we have the Diamondbacks finishing with nine hits compared to the Twins with eight. However, the Twins are projected to hit more home runs than the Diamondbacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Twins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Out | Shoulder |
| Miguel Castro | Out | Shoulder |
| Zac Gallen | Out | Hamstring |
| Alek Thomas | Out | Hamstring |
| Merrill Kelly | Out | Shoulder |
| Gabriel Moreno | Out | Thumb |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Blake Walston | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Arm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
