Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Preview
Blake Walston will start for the Diamondbacks on Sunday, and they are facing the Marlins, who are starting Ryan Weathers. The money line odds have the Diamondbacks as the favorites, with their line sitting at -155 compared to the Marlins at +130. First pitch from Chase Field is set for 4:10 PM ET.
Arizona comes into the game with a record of 25-27, while the Marlins are 18-35 overall. Miami is currently in 5th place in the NL East. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and this NL matchup can be seen on MLB.TV.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Marlins have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 5-0 performance on the runline.
- In the Diamondbacks’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 4-1 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Diamondbacks have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 2-8 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a straight-up record of 7-3 and a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Diamondbacks vs Marlins series. Arizona went into the matchup as -187 favorites and squeaked out a 3-2 win. The Marlins had a chance to tie or take the lead in the 9th inning but could only muster one run.
Miami wasted a good outing from Sixto Sanchez, as he gave up just three earned runs in five innings of work. Jordan Montgomery got the win for the Diamondbacks, going six innings and giving up two earned runs.
Christian Walker and Eugenio Suarez each had two hits and an RBI for Arizona’s offense. Jake Burger had a three-hit game for the Marlins.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami is 18-35 overall and trail the Phillies by 20 games in the NL East. So far, they are just 4-12 in divisional games. The Marlins are on the road today, and they are 8-16 on the road compared to 10-19 at home.
The Marlins have won three straight series, and they are 4-11-1 in series this year. As the underdog, Miami is 15-24 this year compared to 3-11 as the favorite. Miami has been playing well overall, going 7-3 over their last 10 games.
The Marlins are one of the better teams in baseball to bet on the run line as an underdog, as they are 20-19 against the run line when getting the runs. They are also 12-12 on the run line on the road this season and have covered in five straight games on the run line away from home.
When the Miami Marlins are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 9.0 runs per game. Overall, the Marlins have a 30-23 over/under record this season, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over in 13 of 22 games. Their games have averaged 8 runs per game this season, and their last three games have gone under the total.
Miami is sending left-hander Ryan Weathers to the mound today vs. the Diamondbacks. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 3.49. Weathers most recently faced the Brewers, where he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that outing, he had lost three straight starts. Weathers has been much better on the road this year, coming in with a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 2.59. At home, his ERA is 6.13.
Over the past seven games, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has gone 8/28 (.286) with two homers and five RBIs, while Josh Bell has also hit the ball well of late, going 8/27 with a homer and seven RBIs. Chisholm Jr. is currently on a four-game hitting streak. Miami will be looking for both players to continue their hot hitting, as the Marlins are near the bottom of the league in runs scored, averaging just 3.7 runs per game.
As a team, the Marlins are batting .234, which is 15th in the league, and they have the 12th most home runs in the MLB. Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are the team’s top home run hitters, with nine and seven homers, respectively. De La Cruz is batting .258 for the season, and Chisholm Jr. is hitting .255.
Arizona is 25-27 overall this season, which has them 4th in the NL West. Currently, they trail the Padres by a half-game for the 3rd spot in the division and are seven games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Diamondbacks are 11-9 in divisional games this year.
The Diamondbacks have split the first two games of their series with the Marlins and have an overall series record of 6-9-1 this year. At home, they are 10-8 when favored and 13-14 overall. On the road, the Diamondbacks are 12-13 this year.
Arizona is 24-28 against the run line this season, with a run differential of +0.1 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have been a better bet on the run line on the road (14-11) compared to at home (10-17). They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog (16-12) compared to as the favorite (8-16).
Arizona’s games have averaged 9.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 23-27. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 8-7. The over has hit in 42.3% of their games this season, and their current under streak is at 3 games.
Blake Walston is getting his first start of the season for the Diamondbacks, and he is taking on the Marlins at home. Walston came out of the bullpen in his first appearance of the year, going 3 2/3 innings and striking out 5, but he gave up 2 earned runs on 3 hits.
Arizona’s offense has been one of the league’s best so far this season, as they are 8th in the league in runs per game (4.7). They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, the Diamondbacks are batting .244, which is the 9th best mark in the league, and they are also one of the league’s best at avoiding strikeouts. Arizona’s offense has also been good at taking walks, and they have a good team on-base percentage.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been the team’s top home run hitters this season, with both players having 10 homers. Walker has also been a good run producer, coming into the game with 33 RBIs, which is 12th best in the league. Joc Pederson has been a good all-around hitter for the Diamondbacks, leading the team with a .303 batting average and also having 16 RBIs.
Our prediction for this Marlins vs. Diamondbacks matchup is that the Diamondbacks will pick up a 5-4 win at home. With the money line payout for the Diamondbacks at -155, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Ryan Weathers is predicted to finish with five strikeouts. However, we have him finishing with a 5.00 ERA, which is the eighth worst among today’s starters.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Out | Shoulder |
| Miguel Castro | Out | Shoulder |
| Alek Thomas | Out | Hamstring |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Out | Knee |
| Merrill Kelly | Out | Shoulder |
| Luis Frías | Out | Shoulder |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Avisaíl García | Out | Hamstring |
| JT Chargois | Out | Neck |
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Edward Cabrera | Out | Shoulder |
| Xavier Edwards | Out | Foot |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Hoeing | Out | Hamstring |
