Newcastle, Newmarket & The Curragh Preview… 01/07/2023
There is an early start to Racing on Saturday, with the Northumberland Plate meeting at Newcastle getting underway at 12:20. This change, along with the 12:40 start on the July course in Newmarket, is part of a new approach to give the better races more prominence and this weekend, the focus is on the Irish Derby meeting at the Curragh. Don’t forget to check out our teams’ thoughts on the Northumberland Plate and the Irish Derby on Sunday. Alongside those selections, our Racing experts have also found 4 other selections on Saturdays cards.
Newcastle Racecourse
12:55 Chipchase Stakes (Group 3)
The sudden switch back to the all-weather surface in the middle of the summer can make the Northumberland Plate card more difficult to study, but we have a calculated approach to look for horses who will both handle the surface and perhaps more importantly, will have been targeted at races like this. With Royal Ascot just 8-days ago, there is a limited number of horses who fit that bracket, but top of the list in this race is Tiber Flow. William Haggas’ has form figures of 1,1,1,2 on an artificial surface and looks to have been saved for this race since chasing home Creative Force at Haydock in early May. He couldn’t land a blow in that race as the winner was able to dictate in front and sprint clear in the closing stages. This looks to be an easier task and with such a good all-weather record he should go well.
Newmarket Racecourse
1:15 Cavani Menswear Sartorial Sprint Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race)
Just a week on from Royal Ascot this race is understandably weaker than most Newmarket Listed races. New London sets a fair standard and has an excellent record on both tracks in Newmarket, but with the Appleby yard seemingly under a cloud he is worth opposing on his first run since September. Two years ago, Al Aasy looked like one of the leading middle-distance horses in Europe and whilst things haven’t gone his way since, he does have a good record fresh, as he showed when winning the Buckhounds Stakes at Ascot last May.
He hasn’t been seen since, but Shadwell and William Haggas are persisting with his career, presumably because it is felt that he retains enough ability to win races. He has won on the July course in the past and should handle the conditions. Whilst he has his quirks, he is a talented horse on his day and once reached a rating of 120. We don’t expect him to run to that level, but the best time to catch him is after a break and this looks to be a very winnable opportunity.
1:50 Cavani Menswear Fashion Face-off Frenzy Criterion Stakes (Group 3)
Giving weight to all his rivals will not be an easy task for Jumby, but his recent form is so strong that we find it very hard to oppose him. Trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, he has a superb record both at Newmarket and on faster ground, including when 3rd in the Bunbury Cup here last season. He won the John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock last month, staying on well to get the better of The Astrologist in the closing stages. He did that readily and the Astrologist did his best to boost the form by finishing a very fair 5th in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Ascot last week. That form sets him apart from most of his rivals and with a fitness edge over Aldaary, who hasn’t been seen on a racecourse for over a year and needs to prove that he will handle the quicker ground, he should be capable of winning this.
The Curragh Racecourse
3:25 Yulong Pretty Polly Stakes (Fillies’ and Mares Group 1)
Our final selection on Saturday comes in the feature race at the Curragh. It was hard not to be impressed by the way that Via Sistina travelled under Jamie Spencer when she won the Dahlia stakes at Newmarket in May and if she arrives here in that form, she will be hard to beat. She won that race by 6-lengths and the second and third have both run well in pattern company in the interim to confirm the form. She is the highest rated of these Fillies and if running her race, may well prove a class apart but on her first start in Group 1 company, she doesn’t make a lot of appeal at the current price and this race is unlikely to be run to suit.
There is a case to be made for Comhra, whose third-place finish in the Irish 1,000 Guineas is at least as strong as the form offered by Via Sistina. She had to wait for room that day but stayed on well to finish just 2-lengths behind Tahiyra at the finish line. The step up in trip to 10-furlongs looks likely to suit and although she missed her intended engagement at Ascot last week, she is presumably over any issues that brought to light. The doubt, if there is one, would be that the race doesn’t look likely to be run at an end-to-end gallop and if it turns into a sprint from the 3-furlong pole, she could well be outpaced before staying on. In time, there is no doubt that she will make her presence felt over this trip and beyond, but for now, with the Bolger yard in a quiet spell, she is worth opposing.
With doubts around some of her rivals, we will take an each-way chance on Rosscarbery. Trained by Paddy Twomey, she finished 3rd in this race a year ago behind La Petite Coco before being disqualified for weighing in light. Although she took 9 starts to break her maiden tag, she has won 5 of her 9 starts since and confirmed that last year’s 3rd was no fluke when she finished 2nd in the Prix Jean Romanet last August. With confirmed Group 1 form in the book, she makes a lot of each-way appeal and after winning on her return at Cork in good style, she could get a deserved Group 1 win in an open race.
