Brown Advisory Novices Chase – Cheltenham Festival Day 2 13/03/2024
Venue: Cheltenham Racecourse, Cheltenham UK | Dates: 12-15 March 2024 | Official Site: Cheltenham Festival 2024
2:10 – The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, previously known as the RSA Chase, is the pinnacle race for staying novice chasers, akin to the Cheltenham Gold Cup for seasoned horses. Winners like Denman, Bobs Worth, and Lord Windermere have transitioned to victory in the Gold Cup in subsequent years.
10 Year Official Rating Trends
- Highest Winning Official Rating: 164
- Lowest Winning Official Rating: 144
- Average Winning Official Rating: 155
Fact To File:
Willie Mullins wasted no time in sending this son of Poliglote over fences as he switched him straight to a chasing career from his bumper days last season. Although beaten on his chasing debut by American Mike at Navan in November, Fact To File
soon made amends by beating Zanahiyr by 17 lengths at Leopardstown in late December. He built on this success at the DRF in February when came home alone in a two horse match with his stablemate Gaelic Warrior who fell at the last fence when well beaten off. To the naked eye, the race looked a bit of a farce given it contained just the two runners however it was noted that they tanked along in the back straight and the time of the race was more than respectable. He has never raced over 3 miles under rules (though he won his point over this distance) though it is widely felt that he will take it in his considerable stride if attempting it here for the first time. His trainer makes no secret of the regard in which he holds him and he will carry plenty of Euros come the day of the race.
Stay Away Fay:
Last season’s Albert Bartlett winner heads here for Paul Nicholls and he believes that the horse will strip much fitter than he was at Cheltenham Trials Day in late January when he ran in open company for the first time when finishing third to Capodanno in the Cotswold Chase. His trainer believes that he took a blow before staying on strongly at the finish that day and an official rating of 159 places him right in the mix based on the 10 year winning trends. The horse is a renowned galloper and Nicholls believes that the greater the test of stamina the more it will increase the chances of the admirable 7 year-old whose victory in last season’s Albert Bartlett very much showcased his battling qualities and also reinforced the assertion that a proper stamina test is indeed just what he requires.
Grey Dawning:
Having finished third to Stay Away Fay on his chasing debut at Exeter in November, Dan Skelton’s hugely talented grey went one better at Haydock just two weeks later where he left last season’s National Hunt Novices Chase winner Gaillard Du Mesnil toiling in his wake in a 2m5½f graduation chase. He looked set to build on that on his next run at Cheltenham in December however an almighty blunder two from home put paid to his chances of winning though to his credit he kept on well again and he was closing down on the very useful Ginny’s Destiny all the way to the line. He got back on the winning track at Warwick in mid-January where he ran away with the Grade 2 Hampton Novices Chase. He put 14 lengths between himself and the useful mare of Lucinda Russell named Apple Away. He looked to relish every yard of the 3m journey on soft ground and the form looks strong. If he can avoid his occasional habit of leaving his leg in at least one fence on the way round, then he has every chance of being firmly in the mix at the business end of the race.
Montys Star:
Montys Star is a fascinating contender and he has gone a little under the radar this season. He was a Grade 3 winning novice hurdler last season who blew out completely in the Albert Bartlett when last seen at the Festival. This season he began his novice chase campaign with a 3¼ lengths third to Corbetts Cross with the useful Three Card Brag 2½ lengths ahead of him in second place. He then met the long odds on Three Card Brag again on New Year’s Eve at Punchestown where he dished out a 5½ lengths beating to the Gordon Elliott trained runner. He jumped well in the heavy ground and he was a decisive winner at the line. His trainer deliberately put him away to keep him fresh for the Festival and as his trainer has pointed out, being by Walk In The Park there is every chance that Montys Star will improve for better ground should he get that at Cheltenham. He will arrive there with every chance of being in the shake-up should he reproduce his performance at Punchestown.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Summary:
The four horses profiled here dominate the market and the thinking for the Brown Advisory and it is highly likely that the winner will come from this quartet.
It is difficult to split them and the UK challenge is as strong in this race as it is for many of the rest of the races at the Festival. Fact To File will carry plenty of confidence and plenty of Irish money and he will take a lot of beating.
If Grey Dawning can eradicate the occasional jumping error then he has the class to put it up to them all. It should be noted Grey Dawning could still head to the Turners Novices Chase where he is second favourite in many lists.
Stay Away Fay and Montys Star are right in the mix and could easily win however the feeling is that they may just lack that turn of pace at the business end. That said, if the ground does become testing then the chances of Stay Away Fay will increase because he could be best equipped to deal with a strong stamina test.
As things stand the percentage call would be to wait until running plans for Grey Dawning are confirmed and to await ground conditions on the day as both of these factors will be crucial in calling the winner.
