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2:35 Hamilton – Tangerine Trees Conditions Stakes

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It is a shame that we only have 4 runners going to post for this Class 2 event, but it is at least competitive. The race revolves around the returning Gis A Sub, who is 9lbs clear of this field on official ratings after a 2nd placed finish to Lusail at York in the Gimcrack. He disappointed at Chantilly on his final start in October and there is a sense that he may be slightly overrated at 106. MITBAAHY makes a lot of appeal, especially because he has race fitness on his side. Roger Varian has a 30% strike rate at Hamilton (7 wins from 23 runners) and it is perhaps significant that he has chosen to send his son of Profitable here rather than finding a place for him at Newmarket this weekend. He was unlucky on his comeback run at Nottingham, where he was slow away from the stalls before recovering to travel like the winner at the 2-furlong pole, only to be mown down by the progressive Boonie. That Nottingham run would suggest that he is good value for his official mark of 97 and given that he should improve for the benefit of that outing, he may not need to improve too much to get past Gis A Sub.

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