Event Overview:
The players make the short journey over to Mexico this week, a wonderful course in serene conditions, we are in for a treat. Low scoring is to be expected, which is nearly always the case in the fall season.
El Camaleón Golf Course, designed by famed Australian golfer Greg Norman and opened in 2006, created golf history in 2007 when it hosted the Mayakoba Golf Classic, the first PGA TOUR event held outside of the United States and Canada. The course offers continually changing views as it winds through three varied ecosystems, the tropical Mayan jungle, mangrove wetlands, and the Mexican Caribbean Sea coastline, just like the chameleon from which it gets its name. El Camaleón, which Audubon International has accredited for its environmental dedication, has unique risks such as huge bunkers and crystal-clear freshwater canals, a superb course that I’m sure all players enjoy. The field isn’t as strong as last year in my view but still, we have Scottie, Morikawa & Hovland headlining the field.
El Camaleon is a simple setup where ball-striking has been an essential skill set in prior tournament renewals, while it never appears on the longest driving distance charts. Excellent accurate driving and approach play, on the other hand, is rewarded with scoring opportunities on green complexes that are soft, slow, and among the easiest on the Tour in terms of putting average. We can expect to see super-low scores this week if the winds stay calm throughout the week. Last week saw a difficult day 3 but other than that scoring was easy with a round of 64/65 commonplace on each day. We can expect similar scoring here if conditions remain calm throughout the week.
The game’s biggest names are featured in the 2022 Mayakoba field, led by Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland, last week’s winner Seamus Power also attends.
Let’s break down those key skill sets and reveal those all-important outright picks.
PGA Worldwide Technology Mayakoba 2022 – Event & Course Details:
| Course: | El Camaleón Mayakoba Golf Course |
| Location: | El Camaleon, Rivera Maya |
| Date: | Nov 3-7, 2022 |
| Par: | 71 |
| Yardage: | 7,071 |
| Purse: | $8.2 Million / Winner $1.5 million |
| Fairways/Rough: | Paspalum turf |
| Greens: | Paspalum Grass |
| Defending Champion: | Viktor Hovland |
Key Skill Sets Required:
01. Driving Accuracy
Looking at the course details we can see that Driving Accurately is of huge importance, this week’s track is short by PGA Tour standards and the defence of the course come in from gradually increasing rough lengths as you miss the fairways, the wind will also play a huge part this week. Precision off the tee looks like it will advantageous according to all the data we have. Players who excel on sub 7200-yard tracks are worth considering.
02. SG T2G
On this short and tactical layout I will be looking for player who have previously excelled on sub 7200-yard tracks in T2G performance. I will also be looking at more recent data than historical. For me this week is about those players in solid form from T2G. I expect the player who lifts the trophy Sunday evening to have solid T2G stats most recently.
03. GIR gained
This is a critical stat this week, if not the single most critical. When looking at the previous renewals of this event each of the last 3 winners have ranked inside the top 5 for GIR that given week. I expect the winner this week to also excel in this area.
04. SG Scrambling
Getting up and down will be imperative this week. When looking at the past 10 renewals of this event scrambling has been a key factor in determining success. 5 of the last 10 winners ranked in the top 10, getting up and down over 70% of the time that given week. I will be looking for a player with long term scrambling ability to complement ball striking this week.
05. Par 4 Scoring efficiency
Every winner over the past five years has ranked top 10 in Par-4 Scoring, the distance of 450- 500 yards proving key, with 4 holes falling in this distance range.
06. Putting
Putting will always be a critical factor in low scorning tests like we expect to see this week. I will be considering players who have putted well on Soft Putting surfaces as they are considered soft here at Mayakoba compared to other PGA Tour events.
Best Outsiders to consider
1. Brendon Todd
- A player I have my eye for the RSM Classic, however, he sets up nicely for the test ahead this week.
- A previous winner of this event in 2019.
- Ranked in the top 10 for SG Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds on tour from this field.
- Ranked in the top 10 SG Scrambling over the past 24 rounds on tour from this field.
- Ranked in the top 10 Proximity to the hole from 75-125 yards, wedge play will be crucial this week.
- An effective wind player so if it does blow that will only enhance his chances over the field.
2. Aaron Rai
- A poor showing last week at 25/1 now 80/1 with a week playing under his belt, on a course that his finished 15th at on debut, a much better golfer now. YES PLEASE
- A previous top 20 finish at this event shows his liking for the course set up.
- Ranked in the top 20 for Fairways Gained over the past 36 rounds, playing from the short stuff is crucial here at El Cameleon.
- Ranked in the top 5 for Par 4 scoring on holes of 400-450 yards in length.
- If the flat stick can work, he can outrun his odds and gives us a good go at place payout at least.
3. Andrew Putnam
- Ranked in the Top 20 for Fairways Gained over the past 36 rounds on course.
- Gained strokes with his approach play over the field average in each of his last 5 events, shows his iron game is sweet right now.
- Ranked in the top 15 for SG Short Game & Around the Green over the past 36 rounds on tour.
- Gained strokes Putting vs the field in each of his last 9 events, not many players on tour can boast putting stats like that.
PGA Worldwide Technology Mayakoba 2022 – Best Outright to consider
1. Collin Morikawa
- His price is too big to ignore – the same price as T4 Tony, Only a few points shorter than Billy Ho & Tom Hoge. I appreciate his game is only 80% right now but if it were close to 100%, he would be 8/1 joint fav. A course that on paper suits his game perfectly, he is accurate off the tee and elite with iron in hand. He has won the WGC in Mexico, showing his liking for altitude golf.
- His iron play has remained solid despite his results being less than he would have wanted.
- Gained strokes with iron in hand, in each of the last 8 events.
- Gained strokes Off The Tee in each of his last 5 events
- The one concern is his putting on any surfaces, let’s hope a new grain can inspire a better week on the greens, if it does his price could look silly.
2. Maverick McNealy
- His 4th visit to the track, with best placed finishes of 11th & 12th over the past few years, shows he is coming to terms with the test ahead.
- 3 top 20 finishes in a row on less than ideal course show his game is picking up right now.
- Ranks in the top 10 for SG Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds on course less than 7200 yards, like we face this week.
- Ranked in the top 20 for SG Short Game over the past 24 rounds on tour.
- Average 1.65 strokes better per round at this course, than his medium across the PGA Tour.
- A course that should bring out the strengths in his game at a price I like, makes Maverick the man for me above 50/1 this week.
3. Aaron Wise
- A player who hits it well with every club in the bag and can make a push this week for the title, he is in the most consistent form of his career and his ball-striking stats stand out. This week is all about Ball Striking.
- 2 top 10 finishes at this event in the past.
- Ranked in the top 10 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked in the top 20 for SG T2G Performance over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked in the top 10 for SG PAR 4 Scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Gains strokes on the Bermuda grain putting surfaces he encounters this week.
4. Jason Day
- A risky play, it always is when you put your hard-earned cash on the fragile Aussie.
- There have been some solid signs recently 8th at Shriners & 11th at the CJ Cup.
- He still has one of the best short games around ranked in the top 5 for both SG Around the Green & Short Game.
- Gained Strokes with his approach play in each of his last 6 events, the last time he did that was 2020.
- Gained strokes T2G in each of his last 6 events.
- A good week with the flat stick and who knows, Im prepared to find out in a field like this at what I think are fair odds.
